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SP+ Bowl Game Predictions and Talking Bowl Game Spreads

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Spartan13's picture
by Spartan13
December 16, 2019 at 4:12pm
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If you are not familiar SP+ is an analytic that is used to predict games. It has been over 55% ATS this year(I am not sure the exact number) and outside of last year it normally does really well in bowls. It does not account for things like coaching changes or players sitting out so take some of the games with a grain of salt. Here are some of the picks I am interested in,SP+ prediction first: 

  •  PSU beats Memphis by 4.4-PSU is a 6.5 point favorite I am surprised how close this is, but Memphis can throw it very well which has hurt PSU this year. Never know how losing a coach will effect Memphis though
  • LSU beats Oklahoma by 6-LSU is almost a two TD favorite and is probably a good value, Oklahoma+12.5 is my favorite bowl pick as the media has ran away with LSU hype. They have been a flawed team this season barely beating Auburn, barely beating an weaker Bama, playing close with Florida, and the Ole Miss game have all been forgotten. Oklahoma has also played 1 bad quarter between Georgia/Bama in the playoffs and people act like they have been blown out every year
  • OSU beats Clemson by 6.1-something to note about Clemson is they are playing much better now than at the start of the year so that number may be too big from SP+ but still getting points when OSU is probably a better team top to bottom is a good take. 
  • Michigan State beats Wake by 4.4-How bad do you really think the ACC is? The line is MSU-4.5 for a 6-6 B1G team against an 8-4 ACC team. MSU's offense burned me against ASU I don't trust them on offense enough to bet it but I think they cover. 
  • Iowa beats USC by 1.6-Iowa -1.5 is the line and this is one of the games I am most excited for. I'm not going to bet it because I think USC skill players on offense have a chance to take this game over but that is probably dumb because that is what the public is thinking. Iowa should dominate in the trenches against a USC team with 0 momentum. 
  • Illinois beats Cal by 4-How much better do you think the B1G is than the Pac-12? Cal is 7-5 and a 7 point favorite but Illinois is the favorite from SP, when SP is this much different from the line it normally wins
  • Utah beats Texas by 11-Utah is -7.5, they didn't inspire much confidence against Oregon but hopefully they warm Herman's seat up a little more
  • Bama beats Michigan by 11- SP+ loves Bama and it looks like most of the Bama players should actually play. Bama is -7.5 but Michigan has a much better offense than an Auburn team who nearly dropped 50 on the tide. I will wait a little longer but if Henry Ruggs or Devonta Smith sit I will really think about betting Michigan+7.5
  • Auburn beats Minnesota by 4.3-DT Derrick Brown is playing for Auburn who is -7. Minnesota has one the best skill groups in the B1G and I wonder how well they will be able to throw on Auburn. 
  • Wisconsin beats Oregon by 3- The line is also Wisconsin-3 but I think this is a really good matchup and Oregon is really talented. Wisconsin could also show up and run all over them so I don't feel confident betting this
  • Indiana beats Tennessee by 4-Two teams who are happy where the season ended. Indiana is -2 but this seems like a stereotypical B1G team who slightly over achieves and is hyped up by us before getting smashed by an SEC team. 
  • UC beats Boston College by 12-that is also before AJ Dillon decided to sit out, the line is only 7 on this game and UC may be a really good bet

What are your thoughts on some of the lines?

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