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My Take on the Top 6 College Teams So Far

+6 HS
tajikey's picture
October 1, 2019 at 6:58pm
36 Comments

I'm by no means anything other than a passionate college football fan, with an unhealthy allegiance to The Ohio State Buckeyes, but thought it'd share my perspective through 5 weeks of play:

Bama: FPI - 1, Average Opponent FPI – 65, Point Differential - +185

My take: They rightfully belong at #1. Their offense is firing on all cylinders, and their defense isn’t giving up a ton of points. Tua is distributing the ball fairly evenly between his top 2 receivers, and isn’t asked or expected to run the ball all that often. Their offense will meet its first challenge against LSU, ranked 36 in yards allowed, and Auburn, ranked 26. The question of course is their defense. I don’t think they make it to the Auburn game without having been beat by LSU 62-56. This will keep them out of the SEC Championship, but not out of the Playoff conversation.

Clemson: FPI – 3, Average Opponent FPI – 69, Point Differential - +130

My take: They don’t belong in the top 5. However, no other team has it better than Clemson when it comes to scheduling. I was pulling for Mack Brown and the Tar Heels to pull the upset. At the very least, it exposed Clemson as a potential paper tiger. I don’t think anything was revealed with regard to the strengths or weaknesses, just that they’re getting complacent. It’s not hard to see that any team needs one lockdown corner and a serviceable supporting cast to severely limit Clemson’s offense. They don’t give up a ton of points, but they also have yet to face an offense with a pulse.

Georgia: FPI – 4, Average Opponent FPI – 56, Point Differential - +131

My take: Their passing offense is absolute garbage, with Fromm more a game manager than a distributor. Their leading receiver has yet to eclipse 200 yards, and their RB1 is below 400 yards. They don’t have the running game this year that they had in years past, and will struggle to do anything of significance other than lose the SEC Championship to probably LSU. 

Oklahoma: FPI – 5, Average Opponent FPI – 57, Point Differential - +147

My take: Oklahoma is benefiting tremendously from a high early season ranking. Though their average opponent FPI is the second highest of those listed here, they’ve only played 4 games, with their 5th coming against a team with an FPI of 103 (Kansas). They appear to be giving up less points this year than in past years, but it’s another of those not having played anyone with a pulse. There’s only one game on their schedule that’ll give them fits, potentially, and they’ll likely face that team again in the Big 12 Championship. Hurts has been incredible, but at some point he can’t be the leading rusher on his team (has more rushing yards than the leading rusher for Georgia, Bama, and LSU). If Oklahoma wins out, they’re in, but only as a consequence of teams ahead of them losing; also assuming Hurts doesn’t get, well, hurt.

Ohio State: FPI – 2, Average Opponent FPI – 62, Point Differential - +219

My take: Biased or not, they’re the best team in the country right now. They’re beating teams they should by way more points than is expected. Fields is distributing the ball quite evenly across his top 3 receivers, and Dobbins is the bellcow he was expected to be last year. Fields is the third leading rusher on the team, but his runs are more designed than forced, and used sparingly. Teague is a great thunder to Dobbins’ lightning, and the defense is absolutely suffocating. The first litmus test will come against Michigan State and their top 3 defense, and will continue with Wisconsin, Penn State, and TTUN. With a potential second matchup against Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship, or re-venge/match with Iowa, Ohio State will have at least 5 more Top 25 matchups to support their placement in the Playoff. They’re not losing a game this year.

LSU: FPI – 6, Average Opponent FPI – 63, Point Differential - +138 

My take: LSU this year is Ohio State of last year. Burrow is throwing for bundles of yards to multiple receivers, leaving a running game yearning for attention. Though their defense is giving up points, their offense is scoring at will, and will be enough to get them through a gauntlet that does include those 4 ranked opponents (plus a 5th in the SEC Championship, probably Georgia).

This is a forum post from a site member. It does not represent the views of Eleven Warriors unless otherwise noted.

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