Once again, credit goes to Wesley Colley for keeping these rankings around, despite a website that looks like it was designed in 1995.
http://www.colleyrankings.com/curBcsLike.html
Here are the rankings:
| Rank | Team | BCS Average |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alabama | 1.00000 |
| 2 | Ohio State | 0.95443 |
| 3 | Michigan | 0.86775 |
| 4 | Clemson | 0.86397 |
| 5 | Louisville | 0.85672 |
| 6 | Wisconsin | 0.78255 |
| 7 | Washington | 0.77322 |
| 8 | Penn State | 0.61540 |
| 9 | Oklahoma | 0.60865 |
| 10 | West Virginia | 0.54480 |
This weeks top 10 is actually closer to the CFP top 10 than last week's rankings. They do not diverge until 6/7 where the committee has Washington over Wisconsin. The computers actually favor Washington, but the AP and coaches polls have Wisconsin far enough ahead to keep them at 6 despite their 2 losses. Then at 10, we have West Virginia, which the CFP does not respect and has all the way at 14. West Virginia, similarly, is not at all respected by the computers but is at 9/10 by the polls which is enough to keep them at #10. The "BCS" has the committee's #10, Colorado, at 11.
A couple of observations based upon the actual numbers:
- Alabama has a perfect score of 1.00000 in the BCS. This is due to having every first place vote from both polls and the computers. I don't recall a time this happened during the entire BCS era.
- Similar to Alabama, Ohio State is the consensus #2, being ranked there by both polls and all the computers. I don't think there's been as clear cut of a 1 and 2 in the BCS in quite some time.
- Michigan, Clemson, and Louisville are all very close, within 1.1 point of each other, and nearly 10 points below #2. At this point it is a tossup between them. In all likelihood, the loser of "The Game" is out, and then as long as Clemson wins out, they are in, holding the divisional tiebreaker over Louisville. I can't see them both getting in no matter how much chaos happens.
- The BCS likes Wisconsin a lot, but not Penn State. Their resumes are fairly close, but the computers and voters are both penalizing that loss to Pitt. But Pitt could end up with wins over 2 P5 champions if Penn State wins out. I'm not sure that's enough for Penn State to crack the top 4, though.
- Nobody respects Washington, except the computers, who have them at 5. But both polls and the CFP are holding them back for losing to a resurgent USC team. Speaking of USC, the computers really like them, too, ranking them around 9th, which is enough to overcome rankings of 15/19 in the polls to arrive at #13 in the BCS.
- Opinion: If Ohio State wins out, I don't see the BCS dropping us below #2. I think the computers will hold steady and even if we drop to 3 in the AP/Coaches (due to not playing in the championship game), that computer ranking should be enough to keep us at #2 overall. Not that the last 2 years matter, but both years the top 4 from the BCS matched the committee, even if the exact rankings differed. It would be hard to imagine the CFP not selecting both of the two that the previous BCS system would have selected. So like so many others have said, win and we're in.
