Week 8 came and went with another mauling of an Ohio State opponent, to the delight of Ohio State fans hoping that impressive play can compensate for the Virginia Tech loss to jump Ohio State into playoff consideration.
However, that loss to Virginia Tech and the panned quality of the Big Ten means Ohio State's playoff hopes hinge on developments elsewhere around college football. In particular, Ohio State needs some craziness in the SEC to preclude a one-loss Ohio State team from being left from the playoff in favor of two or more SEC teams.
In fact, there are some "power poll" playoff projections that include as many as three SEC teams (e.g. Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Alabama). This is obviously optimistic for SEC die-hards considering only Ole Miss and Alabama have played each other among those three teams listed. Auburn is another playoff possibility, but its inclusion into the playoff means it would beat both Alabama and Ole Miss later this season.
By season's end, the SEC may have just one team in the playoff. However, it's important to understand what happened in the South, and elsewhere, around college football to make sense of Ohio State's playoff aspirations.
Reports of Alabama's Demise...
RIP, "Kenny Trill": September, 2014 - October, 2014.
After a loss at Ole Miss and a limp 14-13 win over Arkansas last week, Alabama rebounded with authority in a 59-0 win over Texas A&M. There's no place like home for the Tide.
The issue was not that Alabama was not going to make it into the playoff with just one loss. The issue was that Alabama had played like a hot mess for the past two weeks, portending a playoff-excluding loss somewhere on the schedule. On Saturday, the Crimson Tide looked brilliant.
I mentioned this in previous articles, but no team quite controls its destiny for the College Football Playoff like Alabama. It may even be in Alabama's interest to sit out the SEC Championship Game to preclude a possible loss to a team like Georgia.
Saturday's shutout win of Texas A&M changes little in the playoff picture for hopeful Ohio State fans. Still, Alabama needs a loss somewhere else on its schedule to eliminate it.
Alabama's schedule consists of visits to Tennessee and to Louisiana State. It ends with a three-game home stand of Mississippi State, an FCS snack, and Auburn. The tough ones for Alabama are in Bryant-Denny Stadium, in which Alabama has won its last two SEC games by a combined 80 points.
Other Big Games in the SEC
Ole Miss walked over Tennessee, 34-3. Ole Miss is the presumptive favorite in every game it plays the rest of the season, including the Egg Bowl in Oxford to end the season. So, this win changes little for the playoff picture. I think Ole Miss looks like a lock, especially with that defense.
Arkansas is still the Ohio State fan's "chaos team", given who else the Razorbacks play this season. Ohio State fans should root for the Hogs accordingly. The problem is that failed win (to put it that way) against Alabama last Saturday may have broken Arkansas' will. That would be a problem. Arkansas lost 45-32 to Georgia in Little Rock in a game that was not at all as close as the final score may intimate.
LSU steamrolled Kentucky, 41-3. This means nothing for the playoff picture, though I am sure you will find AP voters that have two-loss LSU over Ohio State. If anything, it's a hopeful confidence boost for LSU as it prepares for a two-game home stand of Ole Miss and Alabama.
Could the Big XII Eliminate Itself from the Playoff?
Michael Hunnicutt is not a popular guy in Norman this week.
There were two big earthquakes in the Big XII on Saturday. Kansas State beat Oklahoma in Norman for the second time in as many tries. West Virginia knocked Baylor from the ranks of the undefeated teams.
As it stands, there are no more undefeated teams in the Big XII. Kansas State is now the last team in the Big XII without a conference loss.
Further, Oklahoma is effectively done in the playoff picture, unless mayhem unfolds in the SEC. Baylor, Kansas State, and Texas Christian seem like the only playoff hopefuls left in the conference, all things equal.
Is it conceivable that the Big XII eliminates itself from the playoff come December 6? I think so.
For one, Oklahoma becomes a new "chaos team" in the league. It is itself out of the playoff, but still hosts Baylor in three weeks.
Kansas State has the toughest schedule of any of the three playoff hopefuls in the Big XII. It still has to play at Texas Christian, at West Virginia, and concludes the season at Baylor. It may well win a couple of those. Winning all three seems improbable.
Texas Christian may have the best chance of anyone else, but it visits West Virginia. The Thanksgiving game at Texas could be a trap game.
I assumed a one-loss Big XII champion would be an easy selection for the College Football Playoff. It seems less likely now that the Big XII sends anyone.
Elsewhere in College Football
The Florida State win over Notre Dame was exciting but it had no discernible implication for the playoff picture. Most projections (including my own) had Florida State winning this game and going undefeated entering the playoff. Notre Dame is not eliminated (and is in better position than Ohio State), but I don't sweat the Irish. Notre Dame still has visits to Arizona State and USC on the schedule.
The natives are getting restless in Gainesville.
Missouri had 119 yards of offense for the game and scored just one offensive touchdown. It beat Florida by four touchdowns.
To be put on a milk carton as missing and presumed dead this season: 1) Clemson, 2) UCLA.
Remember Cincinnati? It finally got in the win column again, defeating Southern Methodist, 41-3. SMU is en route to an all-time worst season.
Georgia Tech has dropped two straight games since voters reluctantly placed it in the AP Top 25.
Duke may win its second consecutive ACC Coastal championship. It's 6-1 this season. The aforementioned Georgia Tech is 5-2 on the season, though 2-2 in the ACC. Everyone else in the Coastal Division is 4-3 or 3-4.
Texas beat Iowa State, 48-45, in that saw both teams combine for 17 points in the final 1:19 of the game. It would have been a great game to watch if anyone had Longhorn Network.
Stanford's offense just isn't playing "Stanford football".
