Who is the Best Pure Passer in the Big 10: A JPPS Analysis

By Jeff Beck on June 13, 2012 at 4:00p
12 Comments
What's a Heisman? I want a JPPSThe most coveted award in sports!

Heading into 2012, the Big Ten is set to have nine returning starters under center. While the Leaders and Legends will never be mistaken for pass-happy conferences like the Big 12 or Pac 12, there are a few players of the Midwestern ilk who can sling it around from time to time.

As much as it pains me to admit, Denard (hold up, I’m gonna go ahead and throw an interception real quick) Robinson is widely regarded as the best rushing QB in the conference (at least for now...lookin at you #5). But who is the best pure passer?

In an effort to discern exactly that, I’ve developed what I've named the Jeff Pure Passer Scale or JPPS (humor me…it’s the offseason and its always been a dream of mine to have a metric named after me). 

Methodology

The JPPS is an analytic used to compare the success (or lackthereof) of two or more QBs. It assumes all major passing statistics (Comp %, Yds, TD, INT, and Average YDS per pass) are weighted equally.

For my comparison, I started with the 2012 Big Ten Projected Starters and narrowed them to a top five based on NCAA Passer Efficiency Ratings. Players attempting less than 100 passes were not eligible. Those five players were:

Rank Name 2011 Efficiency Rating
1 Denard Robinson 139.7
2 James Vandenberg 138.5
3 Braxton Miller 138.4
4 Nathan Scheelhaase 133.4
5 Caleb TerBush 130.7

Players were then ranked highest to lowest for every major statistic listed above and given points based on where they ranked for each stat. For instance:

2011 Total Passing Yards

Rank Name 2011 YDS Points
1 James Vandenberg 3,022 +5
2 Denard Robinson 2,173 +4
3 Nathan Scheelhaase 2,110 +3
4 Caleb TerBush 1,905 +2
5 Braxton Miller 1,159 +1

As you can see, James Vandenberg was given 5 points because he had the highest number of yards out of the five players. Point totals go down by one as you move down each place on the list.

JPPS!!!Brax trying to raise his JPPS.

Seem pretty straightforward? Good because there’s more. For interceptions, players were given negative points (cuz throwin the ball to the other team aint good). The player at the top of the list was given -5, the next was given -4 and so on.

Finally, if players tied in category totals, the players with the same totals were awarded the same amount of points. However the player(s) below the knotted up individuals were still awarded the point total they would have received had the players not tied. For instance:

2011 Average Yards Per Pass

Rank Name 2011 Avg Yds Per Pass Points 
1 Denard Robinson 8.4 +5
Tied for 2 James Vandenberg 7.9 +4
Tied for 2 Braxton Miller 7.9 +4
4 Nathan Scheelhaase 7.3 +2
5 Caleb TerBush 6.9 +1

The sum of a player's points for every category = that player’s JPPS. With that said, let's take a look at how it all shook out.

2011 JPPS Standings

Name Completion % YDS TD INT AVG Yds Per Attempt JPPS
James Vandenberg +3 +5 +5 -3 +4 14
Denard Robinson +2 +4 +4 -5 +5 10
Nathan Scheelhaase +5 +3 +3 -4 +2 9
Braxton Miller +1 +1 +3 -1 +4 8
Caleb TerBush +4 +2 +1 -2 +1 6

Drum roll please....the inaugural JPPS trophy (and orange slices) go to James Vandenberg. He led in two of the five categories (YDS and TD) and was second in another (Avg YDS Per Attempt). Unlike Denard (can I get an arm punt?) Robinson, his INT total wasn't high enough to drag him down the list.

In 2009 as a redshirt Freshman, Vandenberg showed flashes of brilliance almost denying the Buckeyes a trip to the Rose Bowl. In 2011, his first full season as a starter, Vandenberg threw for over 3,000 yards and 25 TDs. There's no denying he can toss it around. His favorite target Marvin McNutt is gone, but stepping in is Keenan Davis who had 50 receptions for 713 yards and 4 TDs last season. Vandenberg's mobility is limited, but if given enough time in the pocket, he'll find a receiver. 

As for our man Braxton, he ended up second to last in terms of JPPS. While Miller's passing game definitely needs work, it's safe to say his rank is more a symptom of last year's train wreck of an offense and less a true barometer of his talents. I expect his JPPS to be much higher by the end of the 2012 season.

So there you have it. Only time will tell if JPPS is an accurate gauge of a QB's pure passing abilities, but hey, that's half the fun...right?

12 Comments

Comments

hodge's picture

Nice metric, though I have one comment:  I don't think your rank-based point scales really are accurate measures of each quarterback.  Personally, I'd have rated a 1 for the best performer, and divided the points downward according to their proximity to the leading performance in each category.  This takes into account how much better each quarterback is than the others in each respective category.  
For example, your passing metric would look like this:
1  James Vandenberg  3,022     +1 (3022/3022)
2  Denard Robinson  2,173        +0.719 (2173/3022)
3  Nathan Scheelhaase  2,110   +0.698 (2110/3022)
4  Caleb TerBush  1,905           +0.630 (1905/3022)
5  Braxton Miller  1,159            +0.384 (1159/3022)
This way, you can actually get a performance-based metric, as opposed to rank-based.  For example, you can see here that while Scheelhaase is ranked 3rd, in reality there's a much larger discrepency between first and second than between Scheelhaase and Robinson.  Just my thoughts.  Really dig your columns, though.

Jeff Beck's picture

Thanks a lot. Yeah I actually really like the dividing element. Maybe we can go halfsies on a metric. Call it the JHPPS. Thanks again!

 

hodge's picture

I'll drink to that.  Yay for excel-based analytic comparisons!

BrewstersMillions's picture

Anytime we break away from traditional and outdated statistics and measurements and try to advance our understanding of the games we all love, we grow as fans. Whether this turns out to be an accurate metric or not-attempting it is good enough for me. Good stuff!

4-6 seconds from point A to point B and when you get to point B, be pissed off

BuckeyeSki's picture

I wanna see Bauserman's numbers....

Banned from BlackShoeDiaries since 2008. Crime: Slander/Defamation of Character Judgement: Guilty

jedkat's picture

best keep scrollin down....

“The teams that don’t respect their coaches and don’t trust their coaches are the teams that go .500"
~Zach Boren

jkrk's picture

Just to anticipate the grousing coming out of State College, is there any reason you didn't factor in moxie?

Jeff Beck's picture

Thought about it, hard to quantify teeth gritting 

BuckeyeSki's picture

Even harder to quantify staring at the other teams sideline like your Medusa trying to turn them to stone...so....much....moxie...

Banned from BlackShoeDiaries since 2008. Crime: Slander/Defamation of Character Judgement: Guilty

BrewstersMillions's picture

There has to be a way to measure Moxie statistics-like awkard passes made in the face of pressure, hard glances at the opposing bench per quarter, and times passes of yours were intercepted, even though you tried really hard when you threw it.

4-6 seconds from point A to point B and when you get to point B, be pissed off

Jeff Beck's picture

"Trying really hard" should be factored into any metric IMO. GOOD EFFORT!!!!

Poison nuts's picture

MOXIE!!!!!

"Death created time to grow the things that it would kill" - Detective Rustin Cohle.