Welcome to the Skull Session.
I’m back.
Have a good Monday.
… I-O! Last week, I vacationed in Naples, Florida. It was a much-needed break filled with sunshine, excellent food and long walks along the Gulf. The trip had all the usual ingredients for a relaxing vacation: early mornings at a coffee shop (remember: caffeinate and dominate), afternoons on the beach with a book and late-night sunsets that illuminated the skies with shades of orange and purple.
But one moment (well, a few moments) stood out above the rest.
One morning, I threw on an Ohio State polo before heading to the beach — nothing flashy, just a black top with a scarlet Block O on the chest. After some breakfast at Doc’s Beach House, my wife and I decided to walk the coast. We weren’t expecting much more than a quiet stroll by the waves, but then, Ohio State connections came rolling in like the tide.
“O-H!” someone called out from under a beach umbrella.
“Go Bucks!” shouted another, walking his dog past me.
In the span of 20 minutes, I heard a half-dozen cheers, shouts or friendly acknowledgments from strangers, all because of a shirt. Retired couples, families on vacation, a man with the black Ohio State hat Ryan Day wears on the sidelines — they all chimed in. Each exchange was brief but familiar, like seeing an old friend in an unexpected place.
That’s the thing about Ohio State graduates and fans: We are everywhere. Whether you’re in Columbus or 1,181 miles away on the shores of Southwest Florida, a simple “O-H” warrants an enthusiastic “I-O” in return.
It reminded me that being a Buckeye isn’t just about what happens on Saturdays in the fall — it’s about belonging to a community that spans the country. One polo shirt turned a morning walk into a dozen shared moments. And in a place as beautiful and far from home as Naples, that connection felt a little like home itself.
BACK ON THE THRONE. Later this week, Eleven Warriors’ Garrick Hodge will release a Big Ten primer. He sent our staff a series of questions, including one that asked us to predict the final conference standings in 2025. While I’ll wait for Garrick to reveal our selections, I can and will share how ESPN’s Bill Connelly sees the Big Ten shaking out this fall:
- Ohio State
- Penn State
- Oregon
- Michigan
- Illinois
- Indiana
- Nebraska
- USC
- Iowa
- Minnesota
- Washington
- Rutgers
- Wisconsin
- UCLA
- Maryland
- Michigan State
- Northwestern
- Purdue
Look!
Ohio State!
Back on the Big Ten throne!
Here’s what Connelly wrote about the Buckeyes:
Just trust the product. It's something I found myself repeating frequently as playoff expansion skeptics complained about how we would be losing the integrity of the regular season -- "Alabama will sit players for the Iron Bowl because the result doesn't matter!" and whatnot. But if last year's Michigan-Ohio State game taught us anything, it's that games like that will always matter. The Wolverines' fourth straight win over the Buckeyes completely reversed how Michigan fans would look back at 2024, and it sent Ohio State, and especially its fans, into a weekslong tailspin even though Ohio State still safely secured a playoff spot. The regular season is going to remain a delight because college football is a delight. Just trust the product.
That ended up applying to Ohio State too. The dud against Michigan cost Day's Buckeyes a potential CFP bye, but they regrouped and unleashed their star power, winning four CFP games by an average score of 36-19. It wasn't a total surprise -- they entered the postseason still ranked first in SP+, after all -- but it was quite the show of strength.
A lot of names will be different this time. The Buckeyes start out first in SP+, but they'll have two new coordinators (Brian Hartline on offense, Matt Patricia on defense) leading a lineup that returns basically 5.5 combined starters. There are former blue-chippers everywhere you look, and receiver Jeremiah Smith and safety Caleb Downs are two of the most proven players in the country. But both lines are starting over, and of the four players with more than 750 yards from scrimmage last season, only Smith returns.
It's hard to be inspired by the new coordinator hires. In Hartline's first job as OC in 2023, the Buckeyes crashed to 34th in offensive SP+ and Day hired Chip Kelly for a year. With Kelly off to the NFL again, Hartline gets a do-over. As for Patricia, well, he has loads of NFL experience and was mentored by Bill Belichick, but the last time he performed well in any capacity (from a statistical standpoint) was 2016.
That said, talent rules, and both Hartline and Patricia will oversee loads of it. Likely starting quarterback Julian Sayin was a top-10 recruit in 2024, Smith and Carnell Tate are a terrifying receiver duo (and there are countless other former blue-chippers available), likely starting running back James Peoples is a former top-200 recruit with excellent yards-after-contact potential (West Virginia starter CJ Donaldson Jr. is physical too), and the offensive line has 12 former blue-chippers and six players with starting experience, including two transfers.
The ingredients are just as high end on defense. Day brought in a couple of defensive end transfers -- Beau Atkinson (North Carolina) and Logan George (Idaho State), who combined for 30.5 tackles for loss and 14 sacks last season -- but that was about all the portal work he needed. Downs and linebacker Sonny Styles will clean up a lot of potential messes, and plenty of 2024 backups thrived in limited samples, most notably ends Kenyatta Jackson Jr. and Joshua Mickens and tackles Kayden McDonald and Eddrick Houston. Sophomore corners Jermaine Mathews Jr. and Aaron Scott Jr. are probably also ready for larger roles alongside senior Davison Igbinosun.
There are obvious reasons why Ohio State starts out on top. I wish I liked the new hires more, but if the Buckeyes repeat as champs, we'll all act as if we assumed it all along.
I could have ended the excerpt after the first sentence.
Ohio State: Just trust the product.
THE BEST COACH IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL. Earlier this offseason, outlets such as ESPN, The Athletic, and Pro Football Focus ranked the top coaches in college football. All of them had Georgia’s Kirby Smart No. 1, and Ohio State’s Ryan Day No. 2. But then came Connelly, who named Day as the best head honcho ahead of… Tennessee’s Josh Heupel?... Smart, Penn State’s James Franklin and Clemson’s Dabo Swinney.
Last week, Connelly wrote an article in which he ranked the best college football coaches over the past 20 years, with one twist. He ranked their performances relative to their SP+ expectations, which bolstered the resumes of Chris Petersen (Boise State and Washington), Art Briles (Houston and Baylor), Gary Pinkel (Missouri) and more
NOTE: AVB means “average versus baseline,” the metric Connelly uses to describe the advantage a coach creates for their program relative to its expectations
Here’s Connelly’s top five coaches since 2005:
- Nick Saban (17 years, 10.7 AVB, 30.9 average SP+, 18.8 score)
- Chris Petersen (14 years, 12.8 AVB, 17.3 average SP+, 14.6 score)
- Kirby Smart (9 years, 6 AVB, 27 average SP+, 14.4 score)
- Gary Pinkel (11 years, 12.5 AVB, 16.3 average SP+, 14 score)
- Urban Meyer (13 years, 4.8 AVB, 26.4 average SP+, 13.4 score)
And here are Connelly’s top five active coaches (with a minimum of four years of coaching)
- Ryan Day (6 years, 6.1 AVB, 30.4 average SP+, 15.8 score)
- Josh Heupel (7 years, 13.1 AVB, 18.1 average SP+, 15.1 score)
- Kirby Smart (9 years, 6 AVB, 27 average SP+, 14.4 score)
- James Franklin (14 years, 7.3 AVB, 18.1 average SP+, 11.6 score)
- Dabo Swinney (16 years, 6 AVB, 27 average SP+, 11.2 score)
From the moment Day took over for Meyer — the No. 5 coach of the past 20 years, according to Connelly’s data — the knock on Day has been that no coach did less with more. However, Connelly’s data shows that Day took on one of the most pressure-packed jobs in America, with the highest baseline of any program, and still managed to outperform expectations.
Day isn’t just elite — he’s as good as it gets!
IN BRIAN HARTLINE WE TRUST. You all see this Brysen Wright catch?
A catch you have to see to believe
— NFL (@NFL) July 19, 2025
2025 @NFLFLAG Championships on ESPN/NFLNhttps://t.co/u9u8C2UgX8 to find a league near you pic.twitter.com/x4y7uZFWpC
https://t.co/zre2jWJ00l pic.twitter.com/IZVbugSQMQ
— Chase Brown (@chaseabrown__) July 19, 2025
Wright is 14 years old.
And, yes, he has an Ohio State offer.
In Brian Hartline we trust.
SONG OF THE DAY. “Drift Away” - Uncle Kracker.
CUT TO THE CHASE. Man pulled into MRI machine after he walked into an exam room wearing a chain necklace… Ground squirrels are taking over a North Dakota city and officials are not amused… Largest piece of Mars on Earth fetches $5.3 million at auction, but young dinosaur steals the show… Tom Holland watched Tottenham’s Europa League win between shooting scenes for The Odyssey.
