One of Ohio State’s most anticipated games of the season is less than 24 hours away.
Penn State
Nittany Lions
No, Penn State isn’t the championship-contending team it was expected to be entering the season, but there’s plenty of intrigue surrounding Saturday’s showdown between the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions in the Shoe. Much of that intrigue centers around the return of former Ohio State defensive coordinator Jim Knowles as Penn State’s defensive coordinator, and whether Ryan Day – who clearly wasn’t thrilled with the way Knowles left Ohio State for a Big Ten foe – will seek to run up the score if he gets the chance.
As Ohio State comes off its bye week and prepares to host Penn State in the Shoe on Saturday at noon, we break down our biggest questions, pick our top players to watch and make some predictions for what we‘ll see happen in the Buckeyes’ first game of November.
Questions
What does Ohio State's right guard rotation look like?
One of the biggest discussion points for the last two weeks surrounding Ohio State football is what the Buckeyes will do at right guard, as a competition opened up between multi-year starter Tegra Tshabola and fast-rising redshirt sophomore Joshua Padilla. Padilla's usage in rotation with Tshabola peaked in Ohio State's last game against Wisconsin, when he played a career-high 26 snaps to Tshabola's 44.
Per Pro Football Focus, Padilla has yet to allow a quarterback pressure in 35 pass-blocking snaps, while Tshabola has allowed eight in 169. I don't put a ton of stock into PFF's grades, but for what it's worth, Padilla has received a run-blocking grade of 80.5 with a pass-blocking grade of 73.3, while Tshabola has a run-blocking grade of 59 and a pass-blocking grade of 58.4.
Based on Day's comments on Tuesday, Tshabola will start again, but Padilla will be used heavily again off the bench. Can Tshabola find some consistency, or will Padilla continue his march toward taking his job?
– Andy Anders
Will Ohio State have balance on offense?
Ryan Day reiterates week after week, month after month, year after year that he wants Ohio State’s offense to be balanced — running the football and passing the football in equal measure. Penn State’s defense ranks No. 6 in the FBS against the pass (145 yards per game) but No. 91 against the run (158.7 yards per game). With such a discrepancy, the Buckeyes could look to lean on their ground game. Still, it’s hard to imagine taking the ball out of Julian Sayin’s hands after he completed 36 of 42 passes for a career-high 393 yards and four touchdowns in his last outing.
– Chase Brown
Will Ohio State run up the score if it can?
Ohio State has prioritized its long-term goals over chasing style points all season, intentionally playing at a slower pace on offense. But if there’s any game – short of the rivalry game at the end of the regular season – in which Ryan Day could be inclined to throw that strategy out the window and push the pedal to the metal to make a statement, it’s this one.
Day’s always calculated about what he says publicly, but one can read between the lines of his comments this week and infer he felt slighted by how Jim Knowles handled his departure at the end of last season. Ohio State’s players seem to feel the same way with how glowingly they’ve talked about new defensive coordinator Matt Patricia in comparison to Knowles all year.
While the Buckeyes have said all the right things this week about Penn State being a viable opponent, I think they secretly have their sights set on a blowout. And since they’ll want to both prove a point to Knowles and put on a show for their home crowd in their biggest remaining home game this season, I think they’ll keep their foot on the gas and keep trying to score in the fourth quarter even if they’ve put the game out of reach.
– Dan Hope
Players to Watch
Jermaine Mathews Jr.
Before I even opened Ohio State’s “Work Week Done” tweet on Thursday, I had a feeling Mathews would be the player selected to talk to the team this week. He’s known for being Ohio State’s most talkative and energetic player on defense, and I think he’ll be as eager as anyone to make a statement against Knowles and Penn State on Saturday.
Mathews has already had an exceptional season, proving he can be a dominant player at both cornerback and nickelback. He had his breakout performance as a freshman two years ago against Penn State when he was called upon to play a major role at cornerback in place of an injured Denzel Burke. Regardless of where he lines up on Saturday, I expect him to make his presence felt in a big way against the Nittany Lions once again.
– Dan Hope
Kayden McDonald
It’s no secret Terry Smith wants the Nittany Lions to establish the run and outrush Ohio State on Saturday. In Penn State’s loss to Iowa, which also marked Ethan Grunkemeyer’s first start at quarterback, Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen combined for 34 carries, 160 yards and two touchdowns. Allen handled most of the workload with 28 carries for 145 yards and two scores, while Singleton added six carries for 15 yards. The Nittany Lions will look for similar success on the ground against Ohio State — but not if Kayden McDonald, the man in the middle, has anything to say about it.
– Chase Brown
Payton Pierce
Ohio State's going to be in a lot of 4-3 packages against a Penn State offense that centers around its ground game and running back Kaytron Allen. Pierce has been quietly productive in his rotational role as the Buckeyes' third linebacker, picking up 25 tackles, 1.5 tackles for loss and an interception in just 147 snaps this season. He's eighth on the team in tackles and easily tops among non-starters. Saturday will be a real chance for the second-year LB to shine.
– Andy Anders
Predictions
Jeremiah Smith scores two touchdowns
Following his incredible performance in Ohio State’s win over Wisconsin, Julian Sayin has emerged as the Buckeyes’ No. 1 Heisman Trophy candidate and the No. 3 candidate nationally behind Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza and Alabama’s Ty Simpson. Jeremiah Smith seems fine with that on the surface, but knowing Smith — as competitive as he is — I’m certain he wants to put on a show Saturday. I think he’ll remind the college football world that he could hoist the stiff-arm trophy, too.
– Chase Brown
Penn State is held under 200 yards of total offense
Holding a team under 200 yards of offense is what I'd consider total domination. I expect total domination (again) by the Ohio State defense in this game. Nittany Lion quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer's return to Columbus is a fun story, but he's green, hasn't looked great, doesn't have great receivers and hasn't seen anything like the Buckeye secondary under Matt Patricia. Kaytron Allen is a great running back, but a one-dimensional offense ain't moving the rock against the Silver Bullets this year.
– Andy Anders
Ohio State scores a defensive touchdown
Playing against an inexperienced quarterback who will be making just his second career start in front of a crowd of 105,000-plus people should be a recipe for Ohio State’s defense to make big plays. Ethan Grunkemeyer threw two interceptions in his first career start against Iowa two weeks ago, and now he’ll be facing college football’s top-ranked defense.
There’s no better way for Matt Patricia’s defense to make a statement in front of Jim Knowles on Saturday than forcing turnovers and scoring points themselves. Whether it be on a pick-six or a scoop-and-score, I expect Ohio State to capitalize on Grunkemeyer’s inexperience by forcing him to make at least one mistake that leads to a defensive touchdown.
– Dan Hope
