Standing a perfect 5-0, with all five victories coming at home, No. 3 Ohio State takes its show on the road for the first time this season to face a reeling Michigan State Spartans program desperate for a win.
Hell, Mel Tucker might secretly be pleased if his Spartans simply keep it relative close after losing three straight following a 2-0 start.
On paper, keeping it close might be a stretch but that's why they play the games.
To get you ready for tomorrow afternoon's tilt in East Lansing, my good pals Griffin Strom, George Eisner and Andy Vance are here to bring the noise. Gents, the floor is yours.
C.J. Stroud hasn’t been quite as dialed in the past two weeks but Michigan State’s awful pass defense, even without JSN, could mean Stroud blows up. What kind of day do you envision for Stroud and Ohio State’s passing game?
Griffin: Although the first hostile environment of the season for Stroud and several of his first-year starting wideuts could lead to some out-of-sync play in the passing game, Michigan State’s track record defending the pass has been dreadful in the Mel Tucker era. In 2020, the Spartans ranked 72nd in the nation in that category, and they finished 2021 dead last in the FBS. This year they rank 115th, and I’m expecting Stroud to get back on track with an excellent performance even if he doesn’t quite replicate last season’s 432-yard, six-touchdown effort against MSU.
George: Even with a Downy-soft strength of schedule in September, Rutgers' defensive performances by the numbers still indicated Greg Schiano's team had the capability to put Stroud outside of his comfort zone. Factor in Ohio State not being able to shuffle lead running backs due to TreVeyon Henderson's absence via game-time decision, and Stroud's anomaly of a performance last weekend becomes less of a surprise.
But if Stroud is the true front-runner for the Heisman, he should shred Sparty's defense regardless of personnel available. Michigan State is one of only 17 FBS schools at the moment conceding an average of at least 275 yards per game through the air. Their rating relative to total expected points added against the pass ranks 101st out of 131 teams, and they allow the 43rd highest success rate to passing plays so far after five weeks. In terms of pass rush, the Spartans generate sacks on less than 5% of their opponents' throwing attempts.
Regardless of any jitters that may arrive with the Buckeyes' first road game uncharacteristically taking place in October, Stroud and Ohio State's aerial attack should have a banner afternoon.
Andy: Last week feels like something of an aberration. Kyle Jones made the point in this week’s Film Study that Greg Schiano threw the kitchen sink at the Ohio State passing game, and I have the utmost respect for Schiano as a defensive tactician. So the fact that he held Stroud in check - relatively speaking - feels more like a testament to Schiano’s abilities than it does a rebuke of Stroud’s.
Add to that the reality that Sparty’s defensive backfield is… well, terrible, to put a point on it, and I expect Ohio State’s wide receivers to feast as much as they have at any point this season. Stroud could easily turn this into a 300-yard day, but I don’t honestly expect him to be on the field long enough to get there.
Despite the consternation over cornerback Denzel Burke’s struggles along with a host of injuries in the secondary, OSU sits No. 7 in pass defense and No. 26 in yards per attempt allowed. Do you indeed feel OSU’s pass defense is much better than a year ago? Why or why not?
Andy: I do, actually. Burke’s had a rough go of it, and the fact that Ohio State only had three scholarship cornerbacks available for a conference game was a reminder that the defensive backfield is the biggest concern for this team and its ultimate goals. That said, I think the No. 7 ranking is somewhat misleading given that Ohio State has seen some dreadful quarterback play the past couple of weeks, after seeing a couple of really good dual-threat guys early.
But when you compare this defense to last year’s dumpster fire, it’s not even close in my mind. What Jim Knowles has done in such a quick timeframe is mind-boggling. And not just knowles, but credit to Tim Walton and Perry Eliano as well for righting the ship and getting this program back to Silver Bullet status. The scheme is better, the execution is better; the team plays faster because the players understand their assignments - perhaps with the exception of Burke who has at times looked like he’s a half-step behind, perhaps owing to the oft-discussed complexity of the Knowles system.
Overall, though? This unit is night and day better than it was last year.
Griffin: Ohio State’s numbers against the pass are impressive, to be sure. But let’s not overlook the fact that no offense the Buckeyes have faced this year ranks better than 56th (Arkansas State) in the passing game. Ohio State’s other four opponents rank between No. 89 and No. 117 in that category. We’ve seen big plays given up by the Buckeyes in the passing game, and I think the jury is out on exactly how good Ohio State’s secondary is at defending the pass until it’s tested by a more elite unit – which may not happen for another month.
George: This is a difficult question because the numbers and eye-test would indicate there have definitely been gains in performance, but some skepticism about level of competition remains totally justified. The linebackers overall have played substantially better than in recent years, while cornerbacks tend to have the most mercurial perceptions of their abilities compared to any other position group in football, so Burke does deserve some slack in light of what he accomplished last season. The stellar pass defense numbers in spite of the secondary's health-related absences should lend even more confidence to fans when considering both the short and long-term futures of the Silver Bullets.
However, by mid-November, the two best quarterbacks Ohio State will have played against to that point will be Penn State's Sean Clifford and Toledo's Dequann Finn. Neither of those names inspire much fear in the upper echelon of college football, and the arm talent the Buckeyes figure to face from then-on will be far greater than what the rest of the schedule includes. Provided Ohio State earns a spot in Indianapolis, even the opponent in the Big Ten Championship will doubtfully offer a better quarterback than Taulia Tagovailoa, J.J. McCarthy, or any from a team that may await the Buckeyes afterwards in the College Football Playoff.
This is Jim Knowles' first season in Columbus, and fans should take some solace in what he has demonstrably improved within the Buckeye defense so far. As for determining if those strides are enough to power Ohio State towards its postseason aspirations, that will likely remain unknown until a worthy opponent's passing game presents itself.
I discussed in my Five Things last Sunday that despite four straight blowouts, Ryan Day really hasn't given his backup quarterbacks much time. Kyle McCord's logged 37 snaps and Devin Brown 15, with McCord throwing 14 passes and Brown zero. Any concern Day hasn't given McCord at least a bit more time and dialed up more pass plays for him, whether it be as a "just in case" measure this year or with a look ahead to next season?
George: Would you believe me if I told you Stroud did not throw a single pass the season prior to becoming a starter in Ohio State's backfield, but did score a 48-yard rushing touchdown? By now, Ryan Day's ability to develop successful college quarterbacks should be the area of least concern within the Buckeye football program.
Andy: I suppose the only reason I’d be concerned at all about this is the idea that talented quarterbacks don’t sit on the bench for very long in the modern era of college football, but transfer as soon as it becomes clear they’re not going to be “the guy.” In terms of “just in case” that doesn’t worry me overly much, perhaps because we saw Ohio State go through three quarterbacks on the way to its most-recent National Championship.
As to a look ahead to next season, I might like to see what McCord can really do when he lets one off the chain in a live-fire situation, but no, I’m not going to lose any sleep over it at this point in the season.
Griffin: Since starting at quarterback against Akron in place of an injured Stroud in 2021, McCord hasn’t been given all that much opportunity to get fans excited about the post-Stroud era under center. However, things didn’t work out too bad for Stroud himself when he was given the reins as Ohio State’s starter at the start of last season despite not having thrown a collegiate pass prior to the year. Barring injury to Stroud this season, McCord will have had an additional year in the system that his predecessor lacked upon taking over as starter in 2023, unless Brown makes a leap over the offseason to claim QB1 status.
Yeah OSU didn’t look great against what we now know is a bad Notre Dame team but Alabama hasn’t been dominant, Georgia struggled last weekend at Mizzou and Michigan’s schedule has been very soft. Are those your top four teams right now? Give us your top four teams in order and briefly justify your rankings.
Griffin: I was reticent to put Ohio State over Alabama or Georgia up until this past weekend’s results. But even as the Notre Dame win hasn’t aged particularly well, the Buckeyes have only trended upwards since then and look like the most complete team in the country, having found ways to win games in a variety of ways. Georgia should drop after its scare against Missouri, and the final score of Alabama’s Arkansas win was skewed by a big fourth quarter by the Crimson Tide. Give me Ohio State at No. 1, Alabama and No. 2, Georgia at No. 3 and Michigan at No. 4, even if the Wolverines’ recent efforts haven’t been otherworldly. USC and Clemson are right in the mix as well, but both have had closer calls than Michigan through five weeks.
George: Even with a couple of hiccups in recent outings, Georgia still has the best win so far out of the four teams mentioned after dismantling Oregon to open the season. Beating Mizzou by four points in a nighttime road game hardly seems that much worse than scraping past a mostly Ewers-less Longhorns team in the broad daylight of Texas, but recency bias seems keen on giving Alabama a pass for their own failure to meet expectations.
Georgia should still be in pole position, and while the Buckeyes should have ended September ahead of the Crimson Tide, Alabama remaining among the top two after defeating Arkansas last week seems more palatable now. Michigan absolutely should not still be ahead of Clemson for the final spot among the four best teams right now in college football, especially with the Tigers having earned back-to-back wins over opponents currently ranked inside the top 15.
Andy: I'd rank them Georgia, Ohio State, Alabama and That Team at this stage, primarily because I’m not big on shafting the defending titleholder until they really step on their own jock. Even great teams struggle now and again, so the Mizzou game doesn’t bother me. But Ohio State looks like a better team than Alabama at this point in my mind, so that’s why I would put them third. Michigan sneaks in as my No. 4 as much because no one else has distinguished themselves in my mind rather than because I’m super impressed with the Wolverines.
Ohio State heads to East Lansing as a huge 27-point favorite. Does Ryan Day’s squad cover the big number? Give us your final score and defensive MVP prediction.
Andy: C.J. Stroud has a resurgent performance, reminding everyone why he’s the Heisman frontrunner. He unleashes aerial hell over East Lansing, throwing for at least five touchdowns on the day, spreading the love around between Route Man Marv, Julian Fleming and Cade Stover. The spread is big and got bigger as the week went on so it’ll be close; I’m calling this one 49-17 with the quarterback snagging Player of the Game honors.
Griffin: This year’s Michigan State team appears levels below the 2021 squad that Ohio State destroyed 56-7, but I’m expecting a slightly tighter affair in the Buckeyes’ first road trip as the Spartans could show some surprising resolve despite their recent struggles. I have Ohio State winning 38-17 in a commanding three-touchdown victory, and given Julian Fleming’s three-game touchdown streak, I’ll give him the nod as MVP in a game that could see him turn his recent momentum into a proper breakout performance against a struggling Spartan secondary.
George: Not only have the Buckeyes covered the spread in five straight games as favorites over Michigan State, the Spartans have also failed to score more than 12 points during that stretch. Given those two trends, a final score of 52-10 in favor of Ohio State seems appropriate, while Steele Chambers gets defensive MVP honors for the second straight week.
