11W Mailbag: Trying to Decipher Just How Good Indiana is, Examining the Hoosier Threat and Ohio State's Offensive Efficiency

By Eric Seger on October 7, 2016 at 12:30 pm
Ohio State-Indiana mailbag.
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The 11W Football Mailbag is the only stop you need for answers to your most pressing questions about Ohio State's next matchup. Have a question? Ask it, and if we can, we'll answer it.

I don't know any of the IU players, are there any players worth noting? Stats look pretty average, nothing really pops out at you. — BIGTIMEBUCKS

Of course there are players worth noting. Quarterback Richard Lagow beat out Zander Diamont—the male model that almost beat Ohio State a year ago—in fall camp to start at quarterback. Though he is a tad turnover-prone (six interceptions against nine touchdown passes) Lagow already has 1,278 passing yards this season. Nearly 500 of those came in the one game the Hoosiers lost (to Wake Forest at home) where he threw five picks.

Devine Redding is a solid running back and averages 4.9 yards per carry. The team as a whole only has two rushing touchdowns so far this year but five guys have at least 10 carries. And, wide receivers Nick Westbrook, Ricky Jones and Mitchell Paige each have at least 16 receptions so far in 2016. Paige is a former walk-on who earned a scholarship and is a 5-foot-7 wide receiver that is excellent in space.

Led by linebacker Marcus Oliver (the first Hoosier to top 100 tackles since 2009), Indiana's defense is playing better and has plenty of experience back from a really bad unit a year ago. Kevin Wilson hired Tom Allen to fix things on that side of the ball and short returns show that is happening.

tl;dr: Indiana's offense isn't as potent as it was in 2015 because Nate Sudfeld graduated and Jordan Howard went to the NFL but its defense is playing better.

What is it about the Indiana offense that Ohio State under Urban Meyer has seemed to struggle to contain at times?BuckeyeTrappedInSouth

Indiana has had some really good players in recent years (remember, it is possible for other teams in the Big Ten to have talented guys other than Ohio State). Jordan Howard now plays for the Chicago Bears. Sudfeld is the program's all-time leading passer and is the third-string quarterback of the Washington Redskins, making the team after becoming a sixth-round pick. Tevin Coleman plays for the Atlanta Falcons and Shane Wynn had a cup of coffee in Jacksonville with the Jaguars.

Additionally, Indiana's offensive line has been quietly one of the Big Ten's strongest units in recent years. The Hoosiers ranked second, third, and fourth in the conference in rushing yards per game the last three seasons. Green Bay selected tackle Jason Spriggs in the second round of the 2016 NFL Draft.

That is a significant amount of NFL-caliber players on Wilson's offense the last three or four years. Wilson is also brilliant at taking advantage of matchups and putting guys like Wynn, Coleman and Howard in a position so they can score points. If you miss a tackle against one of those players, it usually results in six points.

They have a 280-pound running back?DEF D

They do! His name is Tyler Natee and he is a true freshman from just outside of Dallas. Natee's nickname is "Big Bacon" and if you can believe it, he played quarterback in high school. Wilson even let him attempt a pass out of the Wildcat last weekend against Michigan State.

The story of Natee's recruitment is really interesting and I only first learned of it Tuesday when I read this story by Zach Osterman of the Indy Star. Basically, Wilson had extra time while recruiting in Texas, asked around to hear who the best player in the area no one was talking about was, then met Natee. Now he's a Hoosier and one of two men (Lagow being the other) who has a rushing touchdown this season.

It seems like OSU's offense has had an extremely low amount of 3 and outs this year—especially compared to last year. Two-part question: 1. Is there any place that actually keeps a "plays per possession" stat; and 2. Any specific reason why you think OSU has been avoiding 3 and outs? — D114Fresh

Barrett

I do not know if there is a place that keeps plays per possession as a statistic but it shouldn't be that difficult to figure out if you just divide how many plays a team has in one game by how many drives it had. For example, Ohio State ran 89 plays against Rutgers on Saturday in 11 possessions. That is an 8.1 play per possession average. In the only game the Buckeyes were challenged during the first month of the season at Oklahoma, they ran 68 plays on 13 drives or 5.2 plays per possession.

Additionally, Ohio State only has 56 third down tries, of which they've converted 57.1 percent, the best in the country.

Ohio State is the best team in the country according to S&P, which is a rating system based on efficiency, explosiveness, field position, finishing drives and turnovers. To compare, Indiana is ranked 49th. So the Buckeyes have been efficient, explosive, protected the ball and won the field position game. That much is obvious.

I think the reason the Buckeyes are avoiding three-and-outs is J.T. Barrett. As Urban Meyer noted after the Oklahoma game, Barrett possesses an uncanny ability to not take negative plays. Thus, if he doesn't like what he sees downfield, he can tuck it and run and pick up four yards so the offense faces 3rd-and-6 as opposed to 3rd-and-10. Play calling then changes—and Ed Warinner and Tim Beck have been excellent so far this season at that—and Ohio State usually moves the sticks.

Granted, other than Oklahoma, the Buckeyes haven't really played anybody. They are very, very good, but we'll see if they can hold on to the top S&P ranking once they get knee-deep in Big Ten play and the weather turns cold.

The past few years Indiana has proved to be a tougher than expected matchup for the Buckeyes and have played them close. Why do you think that is and do you expect that trend to continue this year or do you expect this team to pick up where they left off with Rutgers and do we get another blowout win?BuckeyeCWRU

I already talked about the NFL talent Wilson had at his disposal and how he knows how to coach offense which in college football can make you a problem for any team regardless of stature. Wilson is excellent at using the personnel he has at his disposal. Meyer mentioned that multiple times this week.

That's the biggest thing in my opinion. But the Hoosiers never could get over the hump because of a porous defense and while that unit is better, the team's win against Michigan State could have gone either way (more on that in a bit).

I think Indiana will keep things close for a little while on Saturday but eventually, Ohio State will win by about four touchdowns. Too much skill and a group of eager players destroying anybody in their path right now.

For more info on why Indiana brings the noise and chaos, especially against Ohio State, I encourage you to read Ramzy's column (which I'm sure you already did).

What are the takeaways about Indiana from their game against Michigan State? Was this more about Indiana being better than usual or MSU being worse than usual?Barfolomew, Hovenaut, Kiester and SightlyGrain6

Loads of questions on this, so I lumped them all together.

I think it's a little of both, primarily in the sense that each team is better/worse in key areas. Indiana needed to improve on defense and it did that, although Michigan State's offense is pretty unimpressive right now. The Hoosiers' offense regressed some from last year but Michigan State's defense is really never been the same since Pat Narduzzi took the head coaching job at Pittsburgh. Shilique Calhoun, Darqueze Dennard Max Bullough and William Gholston aren't walking through that door.

Indiana is notorious for losing close games under Wilson, something usually representative of the inability to stop anybody. So while a better group and plan on that side of the ball likely helped the Hoosiers win what was essentially a coin flip against Michigan State, Sparty has loads it needs to work on before big games against Michigan and Ohio State.

Indiana is better, don't get me wrong. I was surprised to see Mark Dantonio lose to the Hoosiers, but I don't think they are that much better than last year.

Do you think that Terry McLaurin and Parris Campbell can become legit No. 2 options at WR? And whom do you like more of the two?SoulPatrol32

I feel like we talk about the wide receiver rotation and need for a solid second option to step up every week and frankly we should. Someone needs to before Ohio State plays a really tough team.

McLaurin and Campbell

But man, it's tough to pick between McLaurin or Campbell. I think they both certainly can step up and do it but I see each guy on the same level right now. Both guys are spectacular special teams performers and great blockers on the outside. I've likened them to Evan Spencer in 2014 before—players that won't wow you with explosiveness but need to be on the field because things just go better with them in the lineup.

So I like them both but since I'm sure you want me to pick one, I'll go with Campbell. Meyer loves Campbell.

If you were Urban, what would you say to make sure the team focuses on Indiana and not think about Wisconsin?BuckeyeAirGuard78

"Hey, remember that team we lost to last year? The only game we lost? This team beat them last week."

Repeating that about 10,000 times should drive the point home that this game is as important as the one next week at Wisconsin, I think.

Is the -30 line for the game more of a sign that the IU win over MSU was a fluke or that Ohio State is that much better than IU? — Rkylet83

More of a sign that Ohio State is that much better than Indiana. A 29-point spread is not initially what I expected to see for this game after I saw that Indiana beat Michigan State, then I watched the entirety of that game. The Hoosiers played well and Michigan State is a little down from last year and then Indiana executed best when it mattered most.

I will not call it a fluke because Michigan State went to the College Football Playoff last year but a giant point spread is oddsmakers and bettors recognizing that Ohio State is really good.

Eric - We know that the IU offense can score - what is there defense like? And to add on, who is there DC and where does he hail from? Perhaps a bit of a question to Kyle Jones, but is their defensive scheme 'basic' or who are the biggest threats against our offense in terms of matchup. — Seattle Linga and ISURVIVEDCOOPER

Indiana's defensive coordinator is named Tom Allen, who I mentioned briefly above. He coached at the University of South Florida in 2015, where he helped the Bulls defense to improve. They went from allowing 27.0 points per game in 2014 to 22.9 and an AAC-best 19.6 in conference play last season. The Bulls also gave up 402.8 yards per game in 2014 and then 380.5 last year.

Allen is an Indiana native (born in New Castle) and also coached at Ole Miss, Arkansas State and Drake University. He brought a 4-2-5 defensive alignment with him to Bloomington. He has seven returning starters to work with in his first season but the group as a whole hasn't really done much in terms of splash plays so far in 2016. Seven sacks through four games in 13th-most in the conference, four interceptions are tied for sixth with four other teams and 18 tackles for loss are dead last.

Things are better for the Hoosiers on defense but not all that much better. That won't change until it recruits some better people on that side of the ball but they returned their top five tacklers so that should help things as they continue to learn Allen's scheme.

Tegray Scales is the main guy, a junior middle linebacker. He leads Indiana with a pair of sacks and 5.5 tackles for loss.

How many more redshirts get burnt, and which ones? Is this a result of individuals underperforming, or are these kids just that damn good? Either way, what a good problem to have, right!?WezBuck28

It's never a bad problem to have true freshmen then you can't afford to keep on the sideline but let's not forget this is a little bit due to Meyer and Ohio State refusing to pull redshirts on 22 of the 26 members of the 2015 recruiting class. The 2016 class is very good but the team was also very young when it started practice this fall, so that's why so many freshmen—redshirt or not— are popping up everywhere.

Plus, the Buckeyes really haven't really been challenged this year outside of Oklahoma. Pull that game out of the equation and Ohio State outscored its other three opponents 183-13. It only makes sense to let those young guys (who are still extremely talented) go play in blowouts so as to build depth for the stretch run in the event injuries happen.

The Rutgers Freshmen Tracker shows 13 players from the 2016 class have played so far this season. I only see maybe one or two more seeing their redshirts pulled—Wayne Davis has my vote for first and then after him Malik Barrow.

Barrow

Playing against one of his home state schools, does Austin Mack finally have a breakout game?BuckeyeSouth

Doubtful. Meyer mentioned a few weeks ago that Mack began to hit a bit of a freshman wall as a wide receiver that enrolled early and competed. While he is in the rotation at wide receiver, he isn't near the top and only recorded his first career catch last weekend.

There are just so many players at that spot right now that Ohio State is using. And the team doesn't even have a true No. 2 threat outside of Noah Brown, who only had one catch against Rutgers.

How does Urban rid himself of the annual nuisance that is Kevin Wilson?Smartone29

He trusts that Ohio State prepared well for Indiana's new-look defense and knows that his defense is ranked among the best in the country in just about every category.

The Buckeyes have way, way more depth than Indiana does at pretty much every position. As long as they don't start slow and fall behind, they should wear them down by the end of the game.

What exactly is a Hoosier?Toad1204

Technically, a Hoosier is just someone that lives in or is from the state of Indiana. That is the basic of basic ways to answer this question.

The term has been around since the 1830s and gained popularity in a poem by John Finley of Richmond called The Hoosier's Nest, even though he wrote the word as "hoosher." Some think it refers to the backwoods areas of Indiana and the folks that reside there being a little on the "rough" side. Others tie it to the inhabitants of the state cultivating bravery and heartiness in everything they do.

More historians claim they first heard it from Indiana people asking "Who's yer/her?" upon hearing a knock on the door. Reading all of that makes me think it's open to interpretation and a little silly no matter how you look at it.

Greatest Indiana-based sports film: Hoosiers, Breaking Away, or Rudy? Discuss.GOOMBAY

The answer is Hoosiers every day of the week and twice on Sundays. I say that as an unabashed fan of the film who lists it among his top-5 flicks and also because as DJ so eloquently explained before Ohio State played Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl, Rudy sucks.

Admittedly, I had not heard of Breaking Away until you named it being a movie with ties to Indiana, so I watched it this week. Not bad for a 1979 film about a puberty-stricken #teen obsessed with the Italian cycling team. Katherine (Robyn Douglass) is a fox and I found it funny Dennis Quaid is in it. Just couldn't push it ahead of Hoosiers, Jimmy Chitwood be damned.

If Indiana continues to improve, do you see them strengthening their recruiting presence in Ohio?82Spencer

As long as Urban Meyer resides in the state of Ohio and coaches Ohio State, no. Even after he is gone, no. I think Ohio State is always going to be able to get the players it wants from its home state.

Will the Buckeyes use a more slow down offense this week trying to save a little on injuries, wear n tear, etc. for next week and speed up the game on offense only when we need a shot in the arm for MO? I'm gonna piggyback on this and ask if they will use tempo at all? For me, I'm not satisfied at all with tempo we have went with so far this year..Kid Buckeye and WezBuck28

Ohio State is not going to change the plan it has for tempo as long as Ed Warinner is in the box, which isn't going to change anytime soon. Meyer is aware of the tough road ahead with road games and better opponents on the schedule but Indiana isn't as bad as Rutgers so the game should be closer. He also likes the depth he has at skill positions to keep guys fresh.

Warinner

Also, I'm not sure what your issue is with the tempo or really anything Ohio State has done on offense so far in 2016. The Buckeyes are fourth in the country in yards per game with 576.3, third in rushing with 332.0 yards per game and third in scoring with 57.0 points per game. I can see where you could have issues with the passing attack which sits at 58th (244.3 yards per game) but if you're running the ball that well, 4-0 and ranked No. 2 in the country, does it really matter?

Ohio State put up those numbers using the tempo you are not satisfied with so I'm curious what you would do to change it. There are always areas to improve but so far the Buckeyes have been excellent on offense. Maybe I am misinterpreted your question. If I have, please let me know.

Will Nick Bosa record a couple of QB sacks and give fans the iconic Bosa shrug?Icouldnotgofor3

I think Bosa will get a sack because he already has two this year and seems to be getting better and better with each game. But I don't think we'll see the iconic Bosa shrug that Joey made famous unless he comes back from San Diego. Nick hasn't done it on the field yet so I think he's going to come up with his own celebration.

Can we get a status check on the interior D-line? Seems like the young guys are growing up fast. Any injury concerns?GoBucks96

Other than the normal bumps and bruises, I do not believe there are any injury concerns in that area outside of Tracy Sprinkle who is out for the season with the patella injury. Joshua Alabi and Jashon Cornell got in the game a little bit last week too.

Really the only guy we're sort of waiting on to see if he will redshirt or not at that position is Malik Barrow. He had a leg injury near the end of his senior season but is practicing and we are told full-go.

How many punts will Cam Johnston have?GratefulBuck

I'll say four. Pretty crazy of Meyer last week to not use your best player and still win 58-0. (I'm being sarcastic, friends).

Which Indiana team do you expect to see Saturday - the one that lost to Wake Forest - or the one that beat Michigan State? In other words, do you think Ohio State will win as big as Vegas is saying?Buckeye Phi

Yes. My score prediction is 56-17, which will cover the spread. I think Indiana is better on defense but still not anywhere near having the guys to consistently run with the Buckeyes.

Indiana also took a step back on offense without Nate Sudfeld and Jordan Howard. Richard Lagow is still a solid player but I can't really see a scenario where he puts up a ton of points against Ohio State's defense. That side of the ball is playing excellent right now and until I see otherwise, that is my #take on it.

Tight end production? Marcus Baugh scored last game but why is OSU year after year struggling to get the TE involved in the passing game?Gwolkoff5

The bottom line with Meyer's offense and the guys he involves is that it revolves around who he feels are his best playmakers. They're going to get the ball the most, because he trusts them and thinks they have the best chance in whatever situation to move the chains, make a play downfield or even break one.

No disrespect to the guys in recent years or Baugh but they are not that high on the list as compared to likes of Curtis Samuel, Mike Weber, J.T. Barrett, Noah Brown, K.J. Hill, Dontre Wilson, Terry McLaurin, Parris Campbell and more. Baugh is certainly in the mix and has been targeted before this season—he even said Wednesday night Barrett targeted him seven times against Bowling Green. He added that Nick Vannett had 27 targets his whole career as the main guy at the position (read: last year and when Jeff Heuerman was hurt two years ago). You can watch this video to hear him say it.

Warinner being both the tight ends coach and offensive coordinator is tipping the scales a little bit toward Baugh and there have been more than a few times where Barrett has simply missed the throw when the tight end was open. He doesn't do it on purpose—he misses throws to every position.

There is only one football to go around. If Baugh becomes the top option all throughout passing plays, that means touches are getting taken away from Samuel, Weber, Brown, Hill, Wilson, et al. Seems bad to do that, in my opinion.

Is Mitchell Paige related to the USMC Medal of Honor winner of the same name?BuckinArk

Not that I am aware of but I wouldn't be surprised. Kevin Wilson loves Paige and called him one of the best leaders on his team this week. Meyer knows Paige can be a problem if not brought down in the open field. He also walked on and earned a scholarship, which is pretty cool.

Thanks as always for your questions. See you next week.

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