As it stands in mid-September, Ohio State's slog to the end of November does not appear to be a treacherous one. It's not Ohio State's fault and as was laid bare to the country last year — it's not like it matters.
But much ado has been made by SEC fans (and coaches) about how Ohio State would get drilled if they played in the SEC. Here's just one email I got this week from such a fan:
After reading your articles I figured out you either are big ten fan or you clearly can't look at a schedule and know what competition is. Anyone can lose in the sec, but if you play urban Meyers schedule, he'll I could coach that team. They play a junior college schedule and urban knew that but oh remember he gave up coaching in the sec to go to junior college playing non ranked teams. They look forward to playing one game a year in Michigan state. Maybe the question here is not that urban is building an empire at Ohio, he just couldn't handle losing in the sec the last couple of years. Let's see where he is at end of year. I would rather see an sec team go .500 than to watch a team play a junior college schedule. Or maybe urban should consider what Missouri, Texas a&m did. Move to sec and let's see where he stacks up every Saturday. Talking about Saban retiring, urban already did until he found the only way to win again play in the big ten.
Sent from my iPhone
Impeccable logic that, frankly, makes you think.
Unfortunately we'll never know exactly how Ohio State would do against Alabama's schedule, but we do have the Prediction Machine, which crunched some simulated numbers.
The results might shock you.
Ohio State is given a 53.3% chance of going undefeated against its schedule. From a September 8th article:
| Opponent | WIN PROBABILITY |
|---|---|
| HAWAI'I | 99.9% |
| NORTHERN ILLINOIS | 99.7% |
| WESTERN MICHIGAN | 98.7% |
| at INDIANA | 97.7% |
| MARYLAND | 99.6% |
| PENN STATE | 96.1% |
| at RUTGERS | 98.9% |
| MINNESOTA | 98.6% |
| at ILLINOIS | 97.3% |
| MICHIGAN STATE | 71.7% |
| at MICHIGAN | 85.2% |
Not a murderer's row, but then again, nobody is arguing it is.
Prediction Machine says Ohio State's chances of going undefeated against Alabama's schedule would be 18.4%, which sounds bad until you realize Alabama's chances are simulated to be 10.1%.
Here's how Ohio State would fare against Alabama's schedule:
| ALABAMA Opponents | OSU WIN PERCENTAGE |
|---|---|
| vs. WISCONSIN | 93.6% |
| MIDDLE TENNESSEE | 99.7% |
| OLE MISS | 78.7% |
| UL MONROE | 99.9% |
| at GEORGIA | 63.8% |
| ARKANSAS | 94.0% |
| at TEXAS A&M | 75.1% |
| TENNESSEE | 91.3% |
| LSU | 83.2% |
| at MISSISSIPPI STATE | 90.6% |
| CHARLESTON SOUTHERN | 100% |
| AUBURN | 80.9% |
So no matter how SEC fans want to cut it: Ohio State is still pretty dang good. (They know it too, which is why they're already bemoaning the prospect of their team meeting the Buckeyes in the playoffs.)
For kicks, Prediction Machine ran Ohio State through USC's Pac-12 schedule and gave them a 25% chance of going undefeated. By comparison, USC was only given 11.3% chance.
| USC OPPONENT | OSU WIN PROBABILITY |
|---|---|
| ARKANSAS STATE | 99.9% |
| IDAHO | 99.9% |
| STANFORD | 94.1% |
| at ARIZONA STATE | 89.5% |
| WASHINGTON | 99.2% |
| at NOTRE DAME | 73.9% |
| UTAH | 94.8% |
| at CAL | 87.% |
| ARIZONA | 96.0% |
| at COLORADO | 94.9% |
| at OREGON | 66.% |
| UCLA | 81.4% |
