When the rage from scorned Buckeye fans begins to dissipate after the latest disappointing Ohio State loss, one simple truth will come into clear view.
Despite losing four of their past five games, including their first Big Ten Tournament contest in an upset defeat to Penn State on Thursday, the Buckeyes will not miss the NCAA Tournament, and they’re likely to have a relatively favorable matchup in the first round – at least as far as seed lines are concerned.
That might not give many cynics much more confidence in Ohio State’s ability to come out victorious, but it will be another chance for the scarlet and gray to prove that its 2021-22 season was not a failure. Even after coming up woefully short of its 2020-21 Big Ten Tournament run, Ohio State can still rectify last season’s unceremonious first round exit in the NCAA Tournament with at least one win – if not more – in the Big Dance.
With five quadrant 1 wins, Ohio State has had far too much success this season to miss out on March Madness. The Buckeyes knocked off then-No. 1 Duke on Nov. 30, blew out regular season Big Ten champion Wisconsin on Dec. 11 and notched a road win over then-No. 15 Illinois on Feb. 24.
Of course, none of those wins took place in March. They’ve been overshadowed by the Buckeyes' current skid, which has included perhaps their three worst losses of the season in quick succession: a 15-point loss to Maryland, an eight-point home defeat to Nebraska and Thursday’s early exit in the Big Ten Tournament, which came courtesy of the Nittany Lions. All three of those teams seeded no higher than No. 10 in the conference tournament.
The Buckeyes were the favorite in all four of the games they lost in their last five, but they’ll hear their name called on Selection Sunday nonetheless. But where exactly will they land? There are a few competing schools of thought on the subject.
Unranked in the AP Top 25, No. 26 in the NET rankings and No. 32 per KenPom, Most believe Ohio State will fall somewhere between a No. 7 to No. 8 seed in the NCAA Tournament, although its Big Ten Tournament run – or lack thereof – may prevent it from reaching the higher end of that spectrum.
According to the NCAA, Connecticut’s 2014 team is the only No. 7 seed that has won a national championship, and No. 7 seeds have suffered seed-line upsets in the first round more frequently than any seed other than 8. In fact, No. 8 seeds have been upset more often than they’ve won against No. 9 seeds in the first round since the tournament expanded to 64 teams.
As of Sunday morning, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has Ohio State sitting as a No. 7 seed in the tournament, facing No. 10 seed Virginia Tech in Greenville, South Carolina, as part of the East region of the bracket. In that projection, Baylor would be the No. 1 seed, Auburn the No. 2 and Villanova the No. 3. If Ohio State were to win its first-round matchup, it could take on No. 2 Auburn in the second round, with a game against Villanova, Longwood, Alabama or Rutgers awaiting Ohio State in the Sweet 16 with a win after that.
The Buckeyes’ first-round opponent in that scenario would be a Virginia Tech team with a 23-12 overall record and 11-9 mark in ACC play, boasting wins over both Duke and North Carolina to win its first ACC Tournament title despite suffering nine losses to unranked teams in the regular season.
According to CBS Sports’ Jerry Palm as of Sunday morning, Ohio State will fall to a No. 8 seed on Sunday, matching up with No. 9 North Carolina in the first round in Fort Worth, Texas, in a Midwest region that would feature Kansas as the No. 1. In this draw, Ohio State would have to face No. 1 Kansas in its very next game if it were to beat the Tar Heels.
Auburn would once again be the No. 2 seed in Ohio State’s bracket in this scenario, with Wisconsin – which split its two regular-season games with the Buckeyes – being both the No. 3 and the only other Big Ten team in the Midwest region of the bracket.
Ohio State has been a 7 or 8 seed just one time in the past 30 years, with Thad Matta’s 2008-09 Buckeyes losing in the first round to Siena in double overtime while Evan Turner put up 25 points, nine rebounds and eight assists. The only time Ohio State has come in lower than the No. 8 seed was in 2018-19, when Chris Holtmann and company sprang a seed-line upset on 6 seed Houston as a No. 11.
Under Holtmann, the Buckeyes have reached the NCAA Tournament in every season besides 2019-20, when the postseason was canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The Buckeyes would have made it that year too, given its 21-10 record entering the Big Ten Tournament and No. 19 standing in the final AP poll.
Ohio State has advanced past the first round on two occasions under Holtmann, in 2017-18 and 2018-19, but the fifth-year coach has never made it past the Round of 32. In the Buckeyes’ last trip to the NCAA Tournament, they were upset in overtime by No. 15 seed Oral Roberts after securing their highest seed (No. 2) in eight seasons.
After a disappointing end to the regular season and an abrupt end to its Big Ten Tournament, Ohio State can silence many critics with a first-round win at the end of this week, and a second-round win would constitute Holtmann’s best NCAA Tournament run with Ohio State.
Where exactly the Buckeyes will begin that journey will be revealed at 6 p.m. Sunday when the full NCAA Tournament bracket is unveiled on CBS.
