Riding a Two-Game Win Streak, Thad Matta's Basketball Buckeyes Still Face Uphill Climb Toward Respectability

By Chris Lauderback on February 9, 2017 at 11:05 am
Thad Matta's squad improved to 15-10 overall and 5-7 in league action following last night's win over lowly Rutgers.
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What looked like hundreds (but counted as thousands) of fans showed up to watch Ohio State defeat a bad Rutgers team 70-64 last night in a desolate Value City Arena. 

The victory improved Thad Matta's squad to 15-10 overall and 5-7 in league play, birthing a modest two-game win streak.

While it's an unfortunate reality this team has only been able to win back-to-back games three times since December, it should be noted they've recorded their two signature wins of the season over the last 15 days. 

The Buckeyes handled a Minnesota squad currently ranked 40th by KenPom back on January 25th and then last Saturday they went on the road and dealt 30th-ranked Michigan a 70-66 defeat. 

Other than those two wins however, as I reviewed a few weeks ago, Ohio State has largely feasted on cupcakes, recording 12 of its 15 wins against teams outside of KenPom's top 60 with eight of those coming against squads ranked 137th or worse. 

With last night's thriller over KenPom's 134th ranked team, here's an updated look at Ohio State's victims so far this year along with their most recent ranking. 

2016-17 OHIO STATE WINS TO DATE
OPPONENT FINAL SCORE CURRENT OPP KENPOM RANK
@NAVY 78-68 172
NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL 69-63 137
PROVIDENCE 72-67 62
WESTERN CAROLINA 66-38 321
JACKSON STATE 78-47 330
MARSHALL 111-70 160
FAIRLEIGH-DICKINSON 70-62 265
CONNECTICUT 64-60 107
YOUNGSTOWN STATE 77-40 303
UNC-ASHEVILLE 79-77 103
MICHIGAN STATE 72-67 57
@NEBRASKA 67-66 98
MINNESOTA 78-72 38
@MICHIGAN 70-66 30
RUTGERS 70-64 134

So, just how excited or optimistic should anyone be about the fact the Buckeyes are on what, for them, qualifies as a roll? 

That depends on a few things. First, whether or not you still have faith in Matta to motivate a team of role players that has repeatedly frustrated him with lack of effort, leading to the kind of comments you typically hear from a program taking on water. 

Second, how you view the quality of remaining opponents on the regular season schedule and how successfully you think Matta and company can navigate through it. 

OHIO STATE'S REMAINING SCHEDULE
OPPONENT CURRENT KENPOM RANK
@MARYLAND 37
@MICHIGAN STATE 57
NEBRASKA 98
WISCONSIN 11
@PENN STATE 92
INDIANA 41

Rolling through that slate at 3-3 should probably be considered a moral victory which is honestly something too many Buckeye fans have gotten used to and/or chosen to accept. 

Beating either Maryland or a down Michigan State team on the road feels like a reach though Nebraska at home should be a win. Though Wisconsin comes to Columbus, I don't think even the most notorious Thad-backer expects a win there.

Winning on the road against Penn State is a realistic ask and while beating Indiana at home isn't quite as realistic especially considering the lack of homecourt advantage produced by the roughly 12,000 fans that might show up for that tilt, it could certainly happen. 

For the most optimistic fans, let's say Ohio State goes 4-2 over those final six games to finish the regular season at 19-12 overall and 9-9 in the B1G with just three wins over teams in the KenPom top 50 and a loss to No. 248 Florida Atlantic, would that be enough to earn a trip to the Big Dance assuming they bow out early in the conference tournament? 

In Joe Lunardi's latest Bracketology the Buckeyes aren't even listed among the first eight teams out so it seems like a stretch – outside of an improbable run in Washington D.C. – they could improve the resume enough to earn a bid. 

Noting Matta's standing as definitively the best coach in the history of the program, not long ago it seemed unfathomable the program could be so nationally irrelevant but with a fanbase trending more and more toward apathy in both interest and attendance and a program flirting with a 4th straight season of declining production and likely just two Dance bids over the last four years, things seem headed for a tipping point. 

Yes, Matta has absolutely earned the right to have one more season to turn things around assuming he doesn't pull a rabbit out of his hat this year (and I sincerely hope he does) but a consistently vacant arena and the lack of a can't miss calvary on the way should leave even the most loyal Matta supporter concerned for the future of a program that hasn't lived up the expectations Matta himself created which also happens to be in line with his compensation. 

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