Basketball Preview: Ohio State at Michigan

By Tim Shoemaker on February 4, 2017 at 7:15 am
Ohio State coach Thad Matta on the sidelines against Maryland.
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It's time for The Game.

OK, not really, but the annual Ohio State–Michigan clash on the hardwood is here. The Wolverines host the Buckeyes at 6 p.m. on Saturday.

For Michigan, it's an opportunity to bounce back from one rivalry loss — the Wolverines fell 70-62 at Michigan State last Sunday —  and get back to .500 in Big Ten play. For Ohio State, it's a chance to snap a two-game skid and avoid a fourth loss in five games and a dismal 3-8 start in the conference.

WHO WHERE WHEN TV
Michigan (14-8, 4-5 B1G) Crisler Arena (Ann Arbor, Mich.) 6 p.m. ESPN

Winning on the road has been a rare occurrence this season for the Buckeyes — they've won just two games away from Columbus all year — so Saturday's matchup with Michigan is certainly a tall task.

Ohio State knows it needs a spark.

“The mood is kind of the same still," backup point guard C.J. Jackson said Friday. "We still know that we’re so close, right there and we’re a few plays away from winning. We’re 3-7 right now but we’re a few plays away from being 7-3 so we still have fight in us.”

Let's break down the contest between the Buckeyes and Wolverines a little further.

Opponent Breakdown

This year's Michigan team looks a lot like previous ones. The Wolverines essentially have the same roster and they play a similar style: a high-powered offense with a rather suspect defense.

Like Ohio State, Michigan has been up and down all season as consistency has been the biggest issue. The Wolverines started Big Ten play just 1-3, but rallied a bit and currently sit at 4-5 in the league. 

Seniors Zak Irvin and Derrick Walton once again lead the way for Michigan. Irvin, the senior guard/forward, leads the team in scoring at 13.7 points per game while Walton, a senior point guard, averages 13.5 points and team-high 3.6 assists per game.

But the Wolverines have also received increased production from a pair of players this season — Moritz Wagner and D.J. Wilson — to give Irvin and Walton some help. Wagner, a 6-foot-11 sophomore big, is averaging 11.9 points and 3.8 rebounds per game while shooting over 44 percent from behind the 3-point line. Wilson, a 6-foot-10 junior wing, averages 10.5 points and a team-high 6.2 rebounds per game.

"With Michigan, they have five guys that are interchangeable, including their center, which makes it hard," Ohio State forward Jae'Sean Tate said. "They have pretty good length and size with that which makes it hard. They have guys that are able to post our smaller defenders but they also have guys when our bigs get switched on they have a hard time on the perimeter.”

In Ken Pomeroy's advanced statistical ratings, Michigan currently sits at No. 32. The Wolverines are one of the best offensive teams in the country — they rank 11th nationally at 120.1 points per 100 possessions — but defensively, Michigan is just 149th in the country allowing 103.5 points per 100 possessions.

Slowing down the Wolverines' high-powered offense will be a huge challenge for an Ohio State defense which has struggled mightily in Big Ten play.

“Defense is something that’s always proven to win in this league," head coach Thad Matta said. "You’ve got to be a great defensive team. The performance [Michigan] had against Indiana was unbelievable how they were clicking so we’ve got to try and slow them down.”

Buckeye Breakdown

Ohio State played much better in Tuesday's game against 17th-ranked Maryland, but it still wasn't enough as the Terps pulled out another road win, 77-71.

It was the Buckeyes' third Big Ten loss at home and with the way this league is structured this season, that can't happen. It's too difficult to win on the road and if you fail to protect home court this season, you get the 3-7 league record Ohio State currently has.

"Looking at the game Maryland did some really, really good things," Matta said. "I think you saw the value of how good Melo Trimble is there in the late stretch of what he did. But [consistency has] got to be a given with this basketball team."

The Buckeyes' biggest issue in league play has been defense. Ohio State hung its hat on that end of the floor in the nonconference, but the Buckeyes have plummeted to 87th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, allowing 100.3 points per 100 possessions. Ohio State ranks 12th in the Big Ten in defensive efficiency, allowing 110.8 points per 100 possessions in league games.

Against a high-powered Michigan offense, if the Buckeyes fail to show up at the defensive end of the floor, it could get ugly.

"I think we’re overthinking on the defensive side," Tate said. "I just think that we need to stop thinking so much and just play. Just trust each other a little more and just play harder.”

The status of starting point guard JaQuan Lyle is uncertain. Matta said Friday that Lyle injured his ankle in Thursday's practice and he would not practice Friday. 

How It Plays Out

Ohio State needs Saturday's game in the worst way, but with the way the Buckeyes have played defensively of late, it certainly seems like going on the road against one of the best offensive teams in the Big Ten is too tall of a task.

Ohio State has a tendency to fall behind early in conference road games. If the Buckeyes do that, they'll be in big trouble against this Michigan offense.

KenPom doesn't give Ohio State much of a chance in this one; the Buckeyes have just a 25 percent shot at earning a win, according to the advanced metrics. Michigan is projected to earn an eight-point victory.

If Ohio State doesn't improve defensively, it could be even more than that.


Tim's prediction: Michigan 77, Ohio State 67

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