Thursday marks the start of the biggest sporting event in the world. Thursday, June 11th - Sunday, July 19th. 39 days, 48 teams, 104 matches - biggest World Cup ever. Co-hosted in the US, where the US will play all its games and where all games from the quarterfinals onwards will be held, with the final in MetLife Stadium. The US's opener is Friday against Paraguay (9pm ET).
Who will win it all? How far will the US go? Which team will be the biggest surprise? Which stories will be written? Anyone going to any matches ($$$)? I've shared some ideas at the bottom of the post.
The World Cup is about the best players under the brightest lights on the biggest stage: pressure, drama, tension, emotion, legendary goals and unforgettable moments: Maradona's Hand of God and Goal of the Century in the same game in 86; England/Argentina's masterclass in 98; Senegal over France, US over Portugal, Korea over Spain and Italy in a tournament of underdogs in 02, Zidane's headbutt in 06, Suarez's handball in 10, Germany's 7-1 demolition of Brazil in 14, Argentina/France's epic final and Messi's storeybook triumph in 22. Pele, Maradona, Ronaldo, Zidane and Messi lifting the Jules Rimmet trophy.
Memories will be made, defining moments created, legends will emerge and a new champion will be crowned.
Let's get the party started!
- Who will win?
Historically, the cream has risen to the top in the World Cup, with only 8 soccer giants having ever won it. If you subcribe to the "world class player" theory that a team needs a critical mass of at least 4-5 world class players (consensus top 5-10 at their position) to lift the trophy, only these 6 teams can win.
- Spain: the (narrow) betting favorite. Best team. Euro 2024 champions. Entering on a 30 match unbeaten streak. Only a few teams in history achieved a similar streak, and most of those ended up world champions (Argentina in 2022, Spain in 2010 and France in 1998). One of the sport's brightest young stars in Lamine Yamal. My pick to win it all.
- France: second favorite. Most talented team. World Cup champions in 2018 and runners-up in 2022. World class players all over the pitch. Experienced Manager (Deschamps). High floor, but doesn't always reach its highest ceiling given its talent.
- Argentina: Defending World Cup champions. Two-time defending Copa America champions. Dominated South American qualifying. Team is almost a re-run of the previous World Cup (a formula that generally hasn't worked for past champions). Still relies on Messi (39) to create chances and goals.
- Portgual: Probably has the best mid-field in the tournament and its best ever team. Won the Nations League last year. Cristiano Ronaldo (41) still first-choice striker and elite scorer but debateable whether Portgual are better with or without him.
- Brazil: Most succesful team in World Cup history. Elite manager (Carlo Ancholetti) and still possessing several world class players (Vinicius, Raphina, Gabriel, Bruno G). Neymar made the team, but is nursing an injury and may not be fit. Struggled in qualifying. Hasn't beaten a European team in the knock-out round since 2002.
- England: Elite players (Bellingham, Rice, Kane, Saka) and manager (Tuchel). Qualified easily from a weak group but has struggled in friendlies against elite competition. Solid defensively, but struggles to create chances against elite teams like Spain and France.
- How will the US do?
Friendly results have been mixed. Went 2-1 against the 3 other teams in its group (lost to Turkey), but has struggled against elite European teams, having recently lost to Portugal, Belgium and Germany. Christian Pulisic is the key player, but you wouldn't say he's truly world class. As such, will be at a talent disadvantage against the best 10-12 teams in the world. Elite manager (Pochettino), good depth of talent with most key players in top European leagues (even if they aren't superstars) and will have home advantage. Should progress from its group and anything less than the Round of 16 would be a disapointment. Might hit its ceiling then or whenever it first faces an elite European or South American team.
- Other storeylines
- Last dance for Messi, Ronaldo, Modric and others
- Who will be the star players: the above departing legends, established players like Harry Kane or Mbappe, or a young phenom like Lamine Yamal?
- Will heat / conditions be a deciding factor? European teams have only won 1 World Cup in the Americas (Germany in 2014 in Brazil), but that was winter there and temperatures in Rio and certain cities were in the 70s. This will be the hottest World Cup yet, which may penalize European teams disporportionately (milder climate and their clubs take the summer off).
- Biggest ever World Cup: How will other regions (North America, Africa, Asia) fare with more teams than ever before? Will this translate to the latter rounds or will we be left with a typical semi final filled with European and South American teams (perhaps with one surprise) and another soccer giant crowned champion? With there be more 5 goal+ landslides in the group stage?
- Which underdog will be the biggest surprise (my guess is Japan)? There's always at least one in every World Cup. Which favorite will disappoint (my guess is England going out in the Round of 16)?
