Well, I'm missing the Royals-Nationals game today because Papa 3M took ill overnight.  So, we're lounging at home with some Panera soup, taking in the rubber match of the three-game set. With a little time, the Reds game on TV, and baseball on my mind, I figured we could talk some hardball.

Run Differential - It's a thing

We've played just about enough baseball to see teams taking on their identity - for real.  And, what we've seen is that the Cubs are setting themselves apart from the crowd, in a major way.  They are dwarfing MLB with a +89 run differential.  I think that you can look around MLB on June 1 and pretty accurately predict the eventual division winners/playoff teams, based solely on run differential.  It's not an exact science, and deadline trades and injuries can impact this, but it is a good assessment tool for those who want to have a quick look at a team's prolonged chances in the pennant race as-is.

Last year, I remember talking to Linga about the Mets' chances and I specifically cited run differential as the reason I didn't think they could sustain their place in the standings.  And, I was wrong.  But, I'd like to use my being wrong to prove the point.  The other division winners were all comfortably ahead in run differential, and the Mets bucked the trend.  This year, I see the Phillies as the team that will fade in the standings, based on their -22 run differential (only 2.5 GB* in the East). Meanwhile, in the AL Central, Kansas City has to right their ship if they want a chance to defend the crown, entering play today in a prolonged offensive slump; owners of a -2 run differential.

There are some divisions that I'll just call now, including both West Divisions.  The AL West, for example, will be a two team race between Texas and Seattle.  Houston?  What in the world happened to the Astros?  I don't know, but their -34 run differential tells me that they have a huge hole to climb out of.  When you combine it with the free-fall they ended 2015 with, I think AJ Hinch might be out of a job.

The NL West will be more of the same, I predict, even with Colorado (-10), Arizona (-24), and SD (-25) all being within 3.5 games of the division lead. Over the course of the next 4 months, they will drop games here and there, and find themselves each 10 or more games out.

Similarly, the NL East will be a two horse race, once the Phillies come back down to Earth. That division will come down to the Mets and the Nats, and it looks like Dusty Baker has things looking up in DC.

The AL East is one of the more interesting division, because they should be a three team race, as I fully expect Toronto to go all softball league and pick up their underwhelming +3.

Entering play today, the playoff contenders sit as follows:

NL East
Washington (+39), NY Mets (+36), 1.5 GB

NL Central
Chicago (+89), Pittsburgh (+7) 5 GB, St. Louis (+40) 7 GB

NL West
San Francisco (+13), Los Angeles (+14) 0.5 GB

AL East
Baltimore (+19), Boston (+19) 0.5 GB, Toronto (+3) 3.5 GB

AL Central 
Chicago (+28), Detroit (+13) 4 GB, Kansas City (-2) 4.5 GB

AL West
Seattle (+28), Texas (+12) 0.5 GB

There you have it baseball fans, there's a quick look around the horn.  What's your flavor Dubbers?  Let's talk some baseball.

* Games Behind