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Ohio State -7.5: Linesmakers V. Wiseguys

+2 HS
Run_Fido_Run's picture
9/25/25 at 8:23p in the OSU Football Forum
14 Comments

I want to make a distinction . . . it wasn't Vegas linesmakers that disrespected Ohio State by lowering Ohio State's point spead at Washington to as low as -7.5. It was driven that low by "wiseguys," i.e., professional gamblers betting large sums on Washington to cover the spread, even after it kept dipping lower into single digits. There appears to be a disconnect right now on Ohio State between the linesmakers and wiseguys. 

  • The linesmakers originally set the line at -13.5, which reflected an elite team (Ohio State) playing a team that figures to be about the 25th to 30th best team in the country.
  • Ohio State is still the Vegas favorite to win the national championship (+550)
  • Unlike the wiseguys - and the public - the linesmakers didn't overreact to Arch Manning and Texas starting September with a sluggish offense. Vegas still has Texas as the second most likely team to win the SEC and to win the national championship behind Georgia because Texas has the best overall talent in the SEC.
  • The linesmakers are treating Washington appropriately: with the same range of odds to win the national championship as 1-loss Utah, Iowa State, 2-loss Florida, Vanderbilt, Nebraska(!), etc.

It's the wiseguys - not Vegas linesmakers - who have outsmarted themselves by betting on Washington while only getting single-digit cushions, when they really should have confined themselves to the +13.5 originally offered. 

Jeremiah Smith is pissed off this week! This game will look a lot more like Washington at Miami 2001 than Miami at Washington 2000. And a bunch of wiseguys are going to take a bath in the process.      

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