Over the past few days I have heard multiple people make comments such as “We’re going to be loaded next year!” or “This could be the most talented Buckeye team ever!” and it got me thinking; could this Buckeye team actually be the best we’ve seen?
For the purpose of this exercise it is important to understand two things.
- First, I will only be comparing the 2024 Buckeyes to the 2019 and 2015 iterations. These are the two teams that I hear most often regarded as the best Ohio State teams of the modern era. While there were teams in the 90’s or even the 02 championship squad that were really good, I don’t think it is right to compare teams from that long ago to today when the style of football played has changed so much.
- Second, and more importantly, we have to find a way to separate ourselves from what ACTUALLY happened during those season, and how players ACTUALLY played. Comparing a season that hasn’t yet happened to one that already has is difficult. We have a tendency to want to compare what actually happened in a given season to what this current team has already accomplished, but that wouldn’t be comparing apples to apples. We want to see how 2019 compares to 2024, not how it compares to what happened in 2023, therefore, I will not be using any statistics from the 2015 or 2019 seasons. Only statistics our players had while going into those seasons.
I will be doing an offensive analysis today, and a defensive analysis next week. So let’s begin!
Offensive analysis:
QB: JT Barrett (So) vs Justin Fields (So) vs Will Howard (Sr)
Key data: Barrett threw for 2834 yds at 64.6% with a 34/10 TD/INT ratio, while running for 938 yds and 11 TD. Justin Fields threw for 328 yds and 4TD, while running for 266 and another 4TD. Will Howard threw for 2643 yds at 61.3% with a 24/10 TD/INT ratio, while running for 351 yds and 9 TD.
Analysis: While Justin Fields’ stardom seemed inevitable, before the 2019 season it was still all just an unproven theory. We had no idea how quickly he would pick up the offense and gel with receivers, only that he had the potential to be great. Meanwhile, JT was lightning in a bottle in 2014. Starting as a freshman he piled up stats throwing to a pair of NFL receivers, one of whom would no longer be on the roster, and doing most of his damage with his legs. He would also enter as part of a QB battle with Cardale Jones. Will Howard enters the 2024 season with modest stats accumulated while throwing to several future accountants. He was in charge of making things happen at KSt, and his INT numbers likely reflect that as a result.
Verdict -- 2019 > 2024 > 2015 -- While JT Barrett would have the best stats of the group, he had substantially fewer raw traits than Fields, and a substantially better team to pile them up on than Howard. In the end, Field’s starpower wins out, while Howard edges Barrett for second place based on the assumption that his comparable stats would look much better had the 2023 Wildcats been the 2014 Buckeyes.
RB: Ezekiel Elliott (Jr) vs JK Dobbins (Jr) vs Henderson(Sr)/Judkins(Jr)
Key data: Zeke ran for 1878 yds at 6.9 ypc and 18 scores, while adding another 220 yds through the air. Dobbins, fresh off a shared backfield role with Mike Weber, piled up 1053 yds at 4.6 ypc and 10 TD, while adding 263 yards through the air. Henderson ran for 926 yards at 5.9 ypc and 11 TD, while adding 229 yds through the air. Judkins adds another 1158 yds at 4.3 ypc and 15 TD.
Analysis: Ezekiel Elliott was fresh off the best three-game stretch in Ohio State history, comparable only to what Trey Sermon would pull off a few years later. He piled up over 2000 all-purpose yards for the Buckeyes and looked the part of an early first round pick. Dobbins, on the other hand, had just suffered through a sophomore slump and was losing his backfield companion to the NFL. Finally, Henderson had just finished a slight bounce-back year, finally looking healthy during the back third of the season and somehow averaging more than 5 ypc behind a porous offensive line. Judkins, like Dobbins, was wrapping up his own sophomore slump, so to speak, with an Ole Miss team that never seemed to have the same juice in the running game it had a year earlier. Elliott, Dobbins, and Henderson all produced at an equivalent rate in the passing game.
Verdict -- 2015 > 2024 > 2019 -- Dobbins was an easy 3rd place in this exercise, as his season was comparable to either Tre or Quinshon on their own. He also had absolutely no one to share the load with going into that season. It was Dobbins or bust the entire time. The bigger question for this exercise is: What’s better, having two terrific backs or one elite back? And that’s where I ran into issues. Elliott was easily the best individual back of the bunch, but his backup that season was… Bri’onte Dunn… If forced to choose, it would be difficult to turn down the security that two excellent backs would give, but Elliott’s talent was simply too much to overlook.
WR: Michael Thomas(Jr)/Curtis Samuel(So)/Jalin Marshall(So)/Braxton Miller(Sr) vs KJ Hill(Sr)/Austin Mack(Sr)/Ben Victor(Sr)/Chris Olave(So) vs Emeka Egbuka(Jr)/Carnell Tate(So)/Brandon Innis(So)/JJ Smith(Fr)
Key Stats: The 2015 group put up 1393 yds receiving, 383 yds rushing, and 21 TD during the previous season. The 2019 group had 1767 yards receiving and 14 TD. And the 2024 group put up a mere 837 yards receiving and 6 TD.
Analysis: The 2015 group of receivers entered the season with a lot of hype. Michael Thomas was terrific, if underutilized. Jalin Marshall had a solid season and a five-star profile. Curtis Samuel had shown flashes of excellence as a freshman, but that was mostly in the run game and/or in mop-up duty. And, everyone knew Braxton was electric with the ball in his hands. They seemed to have one stud, two exciting young options, and one dude who was just a flat out play-maker. Meanwhile, the 2019 group was full of elder statesmen who better inspired images of reliability than excitement. KJ Hill was terrific, but never seemed to be viewed as favorably as the stats he put up. Mack and Victor were what they were. Olave was exciting and fresh off a nice stretch to end his freshman season. And the new guy, Garrett Wilson, he was supposed to be pretty good too! Finally, our 2024 group suffered substantially from the injury bug. While his current stat-line doesn’t show it, we all know Egbuka is a 1000 yd receiver with immense talent. We also know the pedigree with which Hartline recruits. While Tate and Innis don’t have the stats of Freshman-year Samuel or Marshall, they had a guy named Marvin Harrison Jr who was busy keeping them off the field. Oh, and JJ Smith may be the most hyped WR recruit in Ohio State history.
Verdict -- 2024 > 2015 > 2019 -- While the 2019 crew had the best stat-line, anyone watching the games was counting down the days until Mack and Victor would be replaced by Olave and Wilson. And while those young guns offered a lot of excitement and pedigree, so do Tate/Innis/Smith, and while I love Hill, I’ll take Egbuka over him ten times out of ten. In the end 2024 edges out 2015 based mostly on the fact that they have more pure receivers. While Samuel and Braxton were exciting options and fun to think about, Samuel was a running back, and Braxton was a question mark. With Egbuka and Tate successfully matching Thomas and Marshall, I'll choose the potential of Innis and Smith over that of Samuel and Miller.
TE: Nick Vannett(Sr)/Marcus Baugh(So) vs Luke Farrell(Jr)/ Jake Hausmann(Jr) vs Will Kacmarek(Sr)/Gee Scott(Sr)/Jalani Thurman(So)
Key Stats: Vannett split time with Jeff Hauerman in 2014, catching 19 passes for 220 yds. Farrell split time with Rashod Berry, catching 20 passes for 205 yds. And Kacmarek started 27 games for the Ohio Bobcats, catching a combine 42 passes for 507 yds.
Analysis: Kacmarek has the most experience, but against substantially worse competition. While Vannett and Farrell had nearly identical stat-lines, and were both viewed as serviceable blockers. Marcus Baugh, Hausmann, and Thurman hardly played in their respective seasons, but Thurman has the highest upside. Finally, Gee Scott is what he is.
Verdict -- Wash -- It feels like all three groups are completely interchangeable to me. There are zero game-changers on this list.
OL: Decker(Sr)/Price(So)/Boren(Sr)/Elflein(Jr)/Farris(Sr) vs Munford(Jr)/Jackson(Gr)/Myers(So)/Davis(So)/Bowen(Gr) vs Simmons(Jr)/Jackson(Sr)/McLaughlin(Gr)/Fryar(Sr)/Montgomery(So)
Key Stats: The 2015 group returned three starters in Decker, Boren, and Elflein, while inserting trusted 6th man Chase Farris in at RT. The 2019 group returned only a single starter in Munford, but brought back a former starter (Bowen) from injury and inserted an all-conference transfer in Jonah Jackson from Rutgers. The much maligned 2024 line will return three starters in Simmons, Jackson, and Fryar, while bringing in a multi-year starter in McLaughlin from Alabama, and sliding former starter Carson Hinzman to the bench.
Verdict -- 2015 > 2019 > 2024 -- Not a lot of notes here. That 2015 line was full of studs, while the 2024 line is full of duds… Rhyming aside, I’m actually higher on the 2024 line than most people and think they’ll be just fine, but they simply just don’t stack up against the other two years. In the end, I settled with 2015 over 2019 on the weight of them potentially having the two best linemen on this list in Decker and Elflein.
Final Analysis: By my judgement, 2015 has the least palatable QB option, but by far the most appealing offensive line. They also received a narrow victory at RB while suffering a debatable defeat at WR. The 2024 team ends up being similar but opposite, narrowly taking a win at WR and a debatable second place finish at RB. They round out the list with a last place offensive line and a second-place ranking at QB. The 2019 team surprised me with how low they finished in most of these categories. I remember loving nearly everything about that offense, but looking at the players available and what they had accomplished going into the season, it was hard to make a case for them being the best at any one position. In fact, the only first place ranking they took from me was based almost entirely off of projection, with Fields winning my title of QB1. In the end, 2019 had too many question marks for me, and 2024 has too much left to prove along the offensive line.
Offensive Verdict -- 2015 > 2019 > 2024 -- In the end, 2019 had too many question marks for me, and 2024 has too much left to prove along the offensive line, for either of them to rank #1. Meanwhile, 2015 received high marks across the board, and the only category they finished last in (QB) was likely the most difficult ranking of the bunch – and is completely open for argument. As for second place, while 2019 finished last in multiple areas, I felt the gap between the 2019 O-line and the 2024 O-line was great enough to overcome their deficit at WR and RB. If a suitable Tackle is found during the spring portal window, however, 2024 would likely see a jump to second place on my list.
