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Opponent Scoring Defenses

+6 HS
BuckeyeFanInBoulder's picture
10/10/23 at 2:52a in the OSU Football Forum
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Scoring stats for the good guys are 35, allowing 10 PPG (3rd nationally, aka #3 in the list below). Much has been said about our defense and its progress. Much has been asked about our offense (the OL and RBs anyway) and whether the offense can overcome our schedule. I thought it would be interesting to take a look at opposing defenses, given the team's weakness may be the ability to move the ball and score on good defenses.

At a high level, 5 of the top 20 scoring defenses (to this point, but we are half way...) are on our schedule, and possibly 7 of the top 26, should the team win out and get to the BCG:

  • #1 and #2 scoring defenses, TTUN and PSU are still on the schedule, obviously. Regardless of how good our defense is, a one dimensional offense will make those games rather stressful... winning 10-7 on a last second FG is still a win, but I'll also lose years of my life.
  • At #13, Rutgers. 31 of the 88 points they have allowed through 6 games were to TTUN. Granted, I'm sure you're thinking the same thing I am here, and their SOS is poor, but they may actually be difficult to score on with a one dimensional offense, should those numbers continue. I still think this is a 3 TD victory, however, and law of averages will catch up...
  • At #15, Notre Dame checks in. Their D held the Bucks to approx. their season average (15.9 points) rather than our offense average holding serve (well below our 35 PPG).
  • Should we win out and Iowa instead of Wisconsin is at the BCG, their defense's reputation is appropriate, and they currently check in at #16.
  • At #20, Maryland. With our game included, they're averaging allowing 17 PPG, so we broke serve of sorts here, but they still held us below our offense average PPG, since of our 37 points, 7 were a pick 6, and you can't really put that on their D. We scored 3 TDs in 11 possessions, excluding the final possession. That needs serious improvement, to say the least.
  • Honorable mention goes to Wisconsin, checking in at #26, which is good for tied to Washington.

The offense has struggled pretty badly with the 2 of those we have already seen. To be specific, they score zero first half TDs combined against them. That's terrifying, but this is not meant to be a negative post, and I think we'll see that the team has not come close to its ceiling on offense yet.

The bright side of being tested by top 25 scoring defenses in half games played before the playoffs, is that if we can score on those, we should be able to score on anybody in the playoffs, who are almost certainly also going to be in the upper echelon of that list. Scoring defense isn't the only metric to consider, but I think it's pretty obvious there will be zero room to make "murderer's row" jokes come December if we remain in the top 4. It's far more likely that other playoff contenders won't have faced a defense as good as ours instead of the other way around, which is a nod to Knowles!

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