11W staff articles and forum posts have suggested that Ohio State’s defense needs to be “okay” or to “suck less” than last year.  The 2022 Silver Bullets have provided ample evidence that they have exceeded those low expectations. 

As we approach The Game on November 26, I have moved to more relevant comparisons against TTUN rather than continuing to compare to last year’s disappointing defense.

Throughout the season, I have been analyzing the Silver Bullets defensive performance compared to opponents’ seasonal averages.  I focus on three key metrics: points, total yardage, and yardage per play.  The opponents’ seasonal averages exclude games played against OSU (or whoever I am analyzing).  I adjust all statistics for those that I deem not accountable to the defense (i.e., points scored against special teams or the offense—such as Iowa’s scoop and score—and field-goal-equivalent points yielded to the opponent on drives that start in the red zone—such as the Rutgers muffed punt).  I do not adjust for “garbage time” because that gets exceedingly complex when measuring against seasonal averages and when some position groups keep playing starters while other positions substitute backups.

See Analyzing Offense Against Opponent Averages (and TTUN) for a similar look at the offense. Analysis updated for season through October 29, 2022.  All statistics and data from https://www.sports-reference.com.

• Points Allowed

The Buckeyes have surrendered 135 total points; however, the defense is accountable for 118 points.  To evaluate the defense, we exclude the following scores: (a) 3 points from the Rutgers muffed punt, (b) 7 points from the Spartans pick-6, and (c) 7 points from the Iowa scoop-score.  In fairness, I apply the same method when evaluating other teams.  Anyhow, the 118 net averages 14.75 points per game (PPG).  In games against other teams, opponents have scored an average 28.69.  Ohio State has held opponents to 48% of their season-to-date average PPG.

The game just played against Penn State was Ohio State’s worst performance against the score this season.  Penn State’s 31 points was 93% of its season average 33.4 PPG.  Iowa was Ohio State's best performance against the score this season.  Iowa scored 3 points which is just 16% of its average 18.3 PPG.

Ohio State's remaining opponents score slightly more points (29.4); however, Northwestern (17.9) averages even fewer points than Iowa.  Will the Silver Bullets pitch a shutout in Evanston?

TTUN has allowed 92 total points; however, their defense is accountable for only 85 points.  We exclude the Penn State pick-6.  TTUN has allowed 10.63 PPG while their opponents have scored an average 24.28.  That team has held opponents to 45% of their average PPG.

So far, Ohio State and TTUN have both played three teams: Spartans, Iowa, and Penn State.  The Silver Bullets outperformed against Iowa but underperformed against Penn State and the Spartans.  For the season-to-date, TTUN has allowed fewer points.  Those metrics are much closer when compared to the opponents’ averages because Ohio State’s opponents to date have scored more than the teams TTUN has faced.

• Yardage Allowed

The Buckeyes have surrendered 2161 total yards.  That includes 747 rushing and 1414 passing.  The defense has yielded 270.1 total yards per game (YPG).  Against other teams, opponents have averaged 364.7 YPG.  Ohio State has held opponents to 72.7% of their seasonal yardage production.

Again, the Penn State game was Ohio State’s worst performance this season.  Penn State’s 482 yards was 114% of its season average 423.6 YPG.  Michigan State was Ohio State's best performance this season.  Sparty had 202 yards which was 57% of its average 356.1 YPG.

Ohio State's remaining opponents have about 10% more offensive production (408.3 YPG) than those teams already played.

TTUN has allowed 2002 total yards which includes 638 rushing and 1364 passing.  TTUN has allowed 250.5 YPG.  Against other teams, their opponents have averaged 347.1 YPG.  They have held opponents to 73.6% of their seasonal yardage production. 

Against the three common opponents, the Silver Bullets outperformed against Iowa and Sparty but underperformed against Penn State.  For the season-to-date, TTUN has allowed slightly fewer yards, but those metrics switch when compared to the opponents’ averages because Ohio State has faced generally more productive offenses.

• Yards Per Play

The Buckeyes have surrendered 4.49 yards per play (YPP).  That breaks down to 2.78 rushing and 6.83 passing.  Against other teams, opponents have averaged 5.23 YPP.  Ohio State has held opponents to 80.1% of their seasonal average production.

Broken record…Penn State was Ohio State’s worst performance this season.  Penn State’s 6.03 YPP was 97% of its season average 6.20 YPP.  Iowa was Ohio State's best performance this season limiting the Hawkeyes to 2.68 YPP, 61% of its average 4.41 YPP.

Ohio State's remaining opponents have slightly more offensive production per play (5.59 YPP) than those teams already played.

TTUN has allowed 4.13 YPP (2.72 rushing and 5.33 passing).  Against other teams, TTUN opponents have averaged 5.22 YPP.  They have held opponents to 79.8% of their seasonal average production. 

Against the three common opponents, the Silver Bullets had the same comparative results as for total yardage.  Ohio State outperformed against Iowa and Sparty but underperformed against Penn State.  For the season-to-date, TTUN has allowed slightly fewer yards per play, but those metrics are essentially equal when compared to the opponents’ averages because Ohio State has faced generally more productive offenses.

In summary conclusion, Ohio State and TTUN defenses appear to be competing with essentially equal effectiveness.  Offenses will be compared in a separate forum post.