Throughout the season, I have been analyzing the Buckeyes offensive performance compared to opponents’ seasonal averages.  I focus on three key metrics: points, total yardage, and yardage per play.  The opponents’ seasonal averages exclude games played against OSU (or whomever I am analyzing).  I adjust all statistics for those that I deem not accountable to the offense (i.e., points scored by special teams or the defense—such as JT Tuimoloau’s pick-6 at Penn State—and field-goal-equivalent points scored on drives that start in the red zone—such as the Rutgers muffed punt).  I do not adjust for “garbage time” because that gets exceedingly complex when measuring against seasonal averages and when some position groups keep playing starters while other positions substitute backups.

See Analyzing Defense Against Opponent Averages (and TTUN) for a similar look at the defense.  Analysis updated for season through October 29, 2022.  All statistics and data from https://www.sports-reference.com.

• Points Scored

The Buckeyes have scored 391 total points; however, the offense is accountable for 371 points.  We exclude two field goals on possessions that started in the red zone and two pick-6 scores.  In fairness, I apply the same method when evaluating other teams.  The 371 net averages 46.4 points per game (PPG).  Against other teams, opponents have allowed an average 20.6 PPG.  Ohio State has scored 240.4% of their opponents' season-to-date average PPG.

The opening game against Notre Dame was Ohio State’s worst scoring performance this season.  The Buckeyes' 21 points was 94% of Notre Dame’s 22.3 PPG scoring defense season average.  Putting up 44 on Iowa was Ohio State's best scoring performance.  While Iowa has allowed just 11.7 PPG, Ohio State scored 376% of that seasonal average.

Ohio State's remaining opponents allow more points (23.8 PPG) than the teams already played.

TTUN has scored 328 total points; however, their offense is credited with 315 points.  They have scored 39.4 PPG while their opponents have allowed an average 24.7.  So that team has scored 164.2% of the average PPG allowed by opponents. 

So far, Ohio State and TTUN have both played three teams: Spartans, Iowa, and Penn State.  The Buckeyes outperformed against Iowa and Sparty but underperformed against Penn State. 

For the season-to-date, Ohio State has outscored TTUN at the rate of a touchdown per game.  The outperformance becomes more pronounced when compared to the opponents’ averages because Ohio State has played better scoring defenses than the teams TTUN has played.  TTUN has a solid scoring metrics but nowhere close to Ohio State’s superior scoring.

• Yardage Produced

The Buckeyes have produced 4074 total yards (1532 rushing and 2542 passing) an average of 509.3 total yards per game (YPG) (191.5 rushing and 317.8 passing).  Against other teams, opponents have allowed an average 328.1 YPG.  Ohio State has produced 157.0% of their opponents' seasonal yardage allowed.  Even after the rushing game stumbled against Iowa and Penn State, the Buckeyes have similar average rushing (162.4%) and passing (161.6%) performance against opponents’ seasonal averages. 

Penn State was Ohio State’s worst offensive production game this season.  Even during their worst game, the Buckeyes 452 yards was 121% of the seasonal average YPG allowed by Penn State.  Toledo was Ohio State's best offensive production this season with 763 yards, 258% of the seasonal average YPG allowed to their other opponents.

It should be easier for Ohio State's offense to move the ball against remaining opponents because upcoming opponents allow 34.8 YPG more than those teams already played.

TTUN has produced 3758 total yards (1968 rushing and 1790 passing).  Per game, they have 469.8 total YPG (246.0 rushing and 223.8 passing).  Against other teams, their opponents have allowed an average 374.5 YPG.  TTUN has produced 126.0% of their opponents' seasonal yardage allowed.  Unsurprisingly, TTUN relies heavily on rushing.  They rush for 197.7% and pass for just 97.1% of opponents’ seasonal defensive averages. 

Against the three common opponents, the Buckeyes outperformed against Iowa and Sparty but underperformed against Penn State. 

For the season-to-date, Ohio State's offensive production is significantly better and more balanced than TTUN.  Relative to opponents’ seasonal averages Ohio State gains yards much more productively than TTUN because the Buckeyes have defeated generally better defenses than the teams TTUN has faced.

• Yards Per Play

The Buckeyes have produced 7.73 yards per play (YPP) (5.29 rushing and 10.48 passing).  Against other teams, opponents have allowed an average 4.83 YPP.  For each offensive snap, Ohio State has produced 161.5% of their opponents' seasonal YPP allowed.  As with total yardage, the Buckeyes have similar per play production rushing (157.6%) and passing (168.9%) against opponents’ seasonal averages. 

Notre Dame was Ohio State’s worst offensive production per play this season.  The Buckeyes 5.72 YPP was 112% of the seasonal average YPP allowed by Notre Dame.  Again, our worst game still outperformed the opponent’s seasonal average.  Toledo was Ohio State's best offensive production per play gaining 9.78 YPP, 235% of the seasonal average YPG allowed to their other opponents.

It should be easier for Ohio State's offense to move the ball against remaining opponents because they allow 0.31 YPP more than those teams already played.

TTUN has produced 6.86 total YPP (5.70 rushing and 8.53 passing).  Against other teams, their opponents have allowed an average 5.24 YPP.  TTUN has produced 130.7% of their opponents' seasonal YPP allowed.  Per play, TTUN is more productive rushing than passing.  Compared to opponents’ seasonal defensive averages, TTUN rushing game matches the Buckeyes production at 157.6% while their passing gains 127.1%. 

Against all three common opponents, the Buckeyes outperformed TTUN per play.  For the season-to-date, Ohio State's production per play is significantly higher than TTUN.  Relative to opponents’ seasonal averages Ohio State widens the margin against TTUN because the Buckeyes have faced generally better defenses than the teams TTUN has faced.

Summary Conclusion: Ohio State's offense appears to have performed significantly better than TTUN.  Let's keep it (steam)rolling through November 26 and beyond.

Go Bucks! Beat Xichigan!