https://theathletic.com/3363313/2022/06/14/big-ten-tv-deal-faq/

I believe this article is free to read. But as a caution, I am not going to quote anything from it. 

I do not know why, but I follow Television deals nearly as closely as I follow recruiting, which is quite a bit. For years, TV deals have flown pretty much under the radar, and we haven't seen momentous changes in quite a few years. However, that could all change with the Big Ten's next deal. If you can read the article, or if you just have a general understanding of what is going on, the Big Ten is essentially faced with 1 question. Keep the status quo, which is a split rights agreement with Fox and ESPN. Or, take advantage of the newly opened CBS 3:30 slot, and abandon ESPN entirely. There also seems to be a push from NBC to add a primetime slot to pair with their ND rights. 

Now, I know the vast majority of you are reading this and screaming "Bye Bye ESPN", and would prefer the second option. After all, it would be great to have 2 (or 3) networks prioritize OSU football over everything else. A Fox Big Noon matchup, a 3:30 CBS matchup, and a nightcapper on NBC would be absolutely glorious. But with that said, I have hesitancy with making this move. I'll get to that in a minute, but let's talk about ESPN first. 

ESPN has made it clear that the SEC and ACC are their top priority. With the SEC leaving CBS, ESPN will have full control of their rights beginning in 2024. In a way, it makes sense for the Big Ten to say Sayonara. If another network wants to prioritize Big Ten Football, why should the Big Ten stick with ESPN, where they would be competing with Alabama, Oklahoma, Texas, Clemson, etc? The reason? ESPN still owns the sporting world. They own the CFP, they own the ranking show, and they are still far an away the most followed sporting network. 

Just doing some quick research on social media. Below is the number of followers on the "major" networks twitter pages:

ESPN - 40.5M 

FOX Sports - 2M

CBS Sports - 1.2M

NBC Sports - 1.1M

Now, let's break it down to each networks dedicated college football accounts:

ESPN College Football - 2.9M 

Fox College Football - 321.1K

Neither CBS nor NBC have dedicated college football accounts

I'll give you a few minutes to yell at the clouds about how social media is stupid....

Okay, now that we are back, does social media matter? Absolutely. If you haven't noticed, programs diligently track how many "mentions" they receive in the cyber world. These studies include how many people follow their affiliated social media accounts, and they also include how often unaffiliated accounts "mention" them, and how many people viewed the post. An example would be the ESPN page showing a highlight of JSN catching a TD. This is huge in recruiting. Within the 40 million followers, are the kids OSU is trying to recruit. It makes a difference when they see OSU highlights on their feeds. 

Based on the numbers I provided above, it is easy to see that an ESPN account will generate much more notice, than any of the other accounts. What does this have to do with a TV deal?

There seems to be a thought that if the Big Ten does not keep their current deal with ESPN, then the company will respond by completely alienating them from their programs. Less social media, less college gameday visits (guess we could've had Micah Parsons), and a much smaller presence on Social Media. 

This piece has a really good angle on the ESPN conundrum facing the Big Ten and everyone else; how do you balance an ESPN nearly wholly committed to the SEC and ACC and keep a meaningful enough business relationship for GameDay and the hype machine? https://t.co/YIiYq1payg
— Rob Bowron (@beta_rank_fb) June 14, 2022

You don't want to have ESPN getting meaningful game picks only to slot them around SEC games and some ACC games, but you don't want to suddenly find yourself getting fewer GameDay visits and being a diminished part of the spectacle on ESPN.

— Rob Bowron (@beta_rank_fb) June 14, 2022

But if you are the Big Ten would you pick less certainty with ESPN over a sure thing with CBS or NBC? My guess would be yes for at least one. It's likely worth it to keep your foot in the door and keep GameDay coming to a few Buckeye matchups a year.
— Rob Bowron (@beta_rank_fb) June 14, 2022

Rob, who is a data scientist centered around college football, believes the Big Ten will likely keep ESPN in their new deal, simply to ensure that Ohio State continues getting the publicity on their programs. ESPN holds the power in this situation. You may say, "It will kill ESPN and hurt their reputation if they abandon the Big Ten". Will it? They are about to essentially own Alabama, Florida, LSU, Oklahoma, Texas, Georgia, Florida State, Clemson, the ENTIRE College Football Playoff, and the most viewed programs and social media pages. They own college football. 

The article mentions the NHL's near demise when they left ESPN. ESPN responded by taking away nearly all coverage of the sport. The same thing has happened to NASCAR. NASCAR is dying; while F1, who ESPN owns the rights to, is THRIVING. Look, I'm not saying leaving ESPN would be the demise of the Big Ten, and especially not Ohio State; but I absolutely believe there could be consequences. 

At the end of the day, I am absolutely not an expert in these types of deals, and I have no clue what Kevin Warren will decide to do. I think Fox, CBS, and NBC will offer the largest paydays, and would absolutely give us some banger primetime games. But don't be surprised if the Big Ten folds a little bit, and gives in to ESPN, just to keep ties with the largest sports network in the world.