I used the Projections for the playoffs on 538 to project if a team wins out, their odds of making the playoffs. I have categorized them into groups.
This assumes that each team wins the remainder of its games and nothing else.
Certainly in with winning out (99%+)
- Georgia
- Oklahoma
- Alabama
- Ohio State
- Michigan
- Oklahoma State
- Michigan State
- Penn State
Almost certainly in with winning out (95-99%)
- Iowa
- Wake Forest
- Baylor
Decent chance with winning out (60-95%)
- Cincinnati
- Pittsburgh
- Oregon
- NC State
- Iowa State
- Auburn
- Minnesota
- Purdue
There's a chance (20-60%)
- Texas A&M
- Notre Dame
- Ole Miss
- Kentucky
- Clemson
- Utah
- SMU
- LSU
The model isn't perfect for sure. Of course the odds of going undefeated the rest of the season for many of these teams is very low.
