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Why Nebraska?

+10 HS
NoVAsmitty's picture
February 25, 2019 at 10:51pm

Too many concerns being voiced about Nebraska IMO.  Sure it's one of those West Division road games that still cause us nightmares from days and nights past.  It seems like everyone points to the Nebraska game as "the trap game" for 2019.  To me, however, there are just too many Buckeye fans, Husker fans, and pundits on that side of the "trade".  For that reason, and others that I'll get into and assuming no catastrophes befall the Buckeyes this offseason, the smart money should on the Buckeyes when they visit Lincoln on September 28.  Why?

First, let's look at the analytics.  S&P+ projects Nebraska at #45 (Bama 1, UGA 2, Clemson 3, ..... tOSU 7).  For 2018, F+ had the Huskers at #53 (Bama 1, Clemson 2, go figure, ...... tOSU 5).  Also for 2018, S&P+ finished with Nebraska at 49 (Bama 1, UGA 2, Clemson 3 really are you kidding me!? ..... tOSU 6).  

Second, Adrian Martinez really?  Sure the kid is talented and has a year in Frost's system, but I'll go with the #2 overall player and #1 dual threat QB over the respectable #193 player and #7 dual threat QB in the 2018 class.

Third, Scott Frost was 2018's Harbaugh.  He had all the press, all the attention.  The pundits are fawning all over him.  It was Frost's first full season at the helm in Lincoln.  His first recruiting class when he had 365 days to work to bring in the talent, as opposed to 2017/2018 class.  And he managed to improve his 2018 haul (that had no early signing day and only about one month to pull in his 2018 class) by only 4 spots.  #23 in 2018, #19 in 2019.  Few if any of the Buckeyes 2019 class will play more than four games in 2019.  The same might not be said for Nebraska, but that says a lot doesn't it?  What is clear is that Frost's 2018 class that was ranked #23 will be contributing and one of those key contributors may just be contributing to the manufacture of license plates.  

Fourth, the talent disparity is massive.  For players that will be contributing for both teams this Sept 28, we need to go back to 2015.  From 2015-2019, Nebraska has had recruiting classes ranked 30, 26, 23, 23, and 19, respectively (say an average class ranking of 24).  Conversely, Ohio State has had classes during that recruiting period of 7, 4, 2, 2 (1 if you count Fields), and 14 for an average of 6 (r/u).  And it's those 2017 and 2018 classes who will really count for both teams.  

Fifth, Frost ain't crazy, but he's Lincoln's Harbaugh.  And like crazy Jimmie, what has Scotty really accomplished in his short tenure as a D1 head coach?  Overall record of 23-15 and one winning season.  Of course, that's 20 more wins (and 15 more losses) than Ryan Day and three seasons vs. three games.  To put things in some more perspective, George O'Leary went 41-9 from 2012-2014 at UCF before the bottom fell out in 2015 (0-12).  O'Leary won 22 more games and lost just two more over those three seasons than Frost did over two at UCF.  Frost's two UCF recruiting classes were #65 and #55, respectively, while O'Leary's from 2011-2015 were 54, 96 (ah ok, that's one of the reasons for 2015), 79, 68, and 71.  While Frost's two year average recruiting ranking was 60, O'Leary's five year average was 74 (r/u) (O'Leary's 2012 and 2013 classes sunk him).  Frost isn't Knute Rockne.  He's not even Jim Harbaugh or James Franklin.

Will Nebraska be an easy game?  Of course not.  But it's going to be a win.  Like about every year since I was born, the team that Ohio State must be most concerned about is ttun.       



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