The CFP Committee released their initial rankings for 2017. I added them to the spreadsheet this week, as well as a ‘Conference’ column. Football Outsiders’ F/+ ratings saw a bit of shakeup in the Top 10, and some previously underrated teams are making late season moves. The AP Poll seems to like tOSU more than Oklahoma, despite what the CFP Committee thinks. But, so does F/+, so maybe the voters got that one right. Central Florida is the best team in the Sunshine State, and this weekend is judgment day for Penn State, Oklahoma-Ok State and VaTech-Miami.
Observations from Week Nine data
1) Top 10. For the first time in the past three seasons (going back to Week 1 of 2015), a team not named Alabama, Clemson or Ohio State is #1 in the F/+ ratings. Congrats to the University of Georgia Bulldogs. Oh, and for the first time over the same period, ‘Bama isn’t #1 or #2. The Crimson Tide dropped to #4 this week behind UGA, Ohio State and Notre Dame. Also of note, UGA and tOSU are about two full percentage points ahead of the peloton, which includes the next six teams between 51.00% and 51.80%: ND, ‘Bama , Clemson, UCF, UW and PSU. Bringing up the rear are TCU and the other oSu. The ACC and Pac 12 only have one team each in the Top 10; ND and UCF make up the delta from the American Conference. The SEC, Big Ten and Big 12 each have two teams.
The Top 10 are all still +/- 2.0% of their mean F/+ percentage and moving closer together. Nov is going to be fun.
2) Stock falling.
- Bama lost their bye week and fell three places; basically most of the teams they’ve already beaten lost this weekend. Their schedule is back-loaded with LSU, Miss State and Auburn remaining, so winning will move them up.
- Florida “power schools”. Despite winning, again, Miami fell four places in F/+ to #14. That’s two consecutive weeks moving backwards for the ‘Canes. FSU fell 38 places to #63, and UF dropped another 27 places to #83.
- Stanford eaked out a one-point victory over Oregon State, and consequently fell four spots to #19.
- But the biggest losers this week were Georgia Tech and WVU, which both fell 11 spots in F/+ after taking their third losses.
3) Stock Rising.
- Several teams saw minor gains in their F/+ rankings after wins this weekend. ND, UCF, Auburn, Wake Forrest, Iowa , Texas and FAU all advanced three places.
- Directional teams in the state of Florida. There are four Florida teams in the top Top 40 this week; in rank order they are UCF, Miami, USF and Florida Atlantic.
- Two-loss teams. USC, Miss State, Auburn and Iowa State have continues to move up in the rankings, fighting off early season losses. They all have the opportunity to make waves in their conferences and are still in the hunt for conference championship games with a little help.
- Group of Five challengers. #6 UCF leads the pack with the highest F/+ rating for a Group of Five team in three years (WMU got as high as the teens last season at 12-0). In recent weeks, Toledo (#25), Boise State (#30) and Memphis (#32) have made significant moves.
4) Conference Pride. For those into conference pride, the B1G leads all conferences with seven teams in the Top 40 (including #38 Purdue at 3-5). The ACC has six, the Big XII has six, the PAC-12 has five, the SEC has five, and the American Conference has five. The MAC has two teams in the top 40, and the MWC, Sunbelt and Conf USA each have one. ND is the lone Independent, for anyone who was adding those up and about to comment, “That’s only 39!”
5) CFP Committee Poll.
-The CFP Committee rankings are generally close to F/+, or at least closer than the AP Poll in many instances.
- LSU is the most overrated team in the AP and CFP polls, according to F/+. They are ranked by the humans ten full spots above their advanced analytic metrics. Memphis falls in the same category.
- F/+ doesn’t like Oklahoma, Wisconsin or Miami nearly as much as the human polls do. Their remaining schedules should help correct this error in judgment in the coming weeks, maybe even this Saturday.
-The AP and the CFP are both undervaluing undefeated UCF, mostly because their conference is not Power Five. People were OK with an undefeated Houston potentially busting the CFP a couple of years ago. Undefeated WMU failed to do it last year, but their SoS was about 75th depending on the source. UCF’s schedule is currently about 67th, but might improve with SMU, USF and the AAC CG to be played.
- No love for Toledo. The Rockets are quietly 7-1, moved into the Top 25 in F/+, got some AP votes, but are getting no love from the CFP Committee as far as we can tell. Their win over NIU (6-3) yesterday should help, and they have a big game next week against OU (the Bobcats) who are 6-2.
Top 25 Match-ups
There are seven games this weekend between CFP Top 25 teams. Huge playoff implications for many teams and conferences.
PSU (CFP 7, F/+ 8) @ MSU (CFP 24, F/+ 22). This game is in East Lansing, where it’s supposed to be 48 degrees and raining. Penn State is a 9.5-point favorite. S&P+ has it closer to 8 points. I’m actually calling for Sparty to upset the Nittany Lions. I think OSU ripped out Penn State’s soul last weekend, and Dantonio now has the blueprint to shut down the McSarkley. MSU by a FG, maybe in OT.
Clemson (CFP 4, F/+ 5) @ NC State (CFP 20, F/+ 27). NC State is straight up over-rated. Clemson is favored by 8.5 points by Vegas, and S&P+ says over 9 points. I would take Clemson by two TDs, so long as Bryant stays in the game.
Stanford (CFP 21, F/+ 19) @ WSU (CFP 25, F/+ 20). The Cougs are favored by one point at home. But they’re a pass-happy team playing in 38 degrees and rain. As long as Stanford plays…”Stanford football”, I like the underdog in this game. Stanford will score on the ground and limit WSU’s offense in bad weather.
Bedlam: OU (CFP 5, F/+ 12) @ oSu (CFP 11, F/+ 10). The Sooners are 1.5-point underdogs are Boone Pickens Stadium. S&P+ has is closer to three points, and I agree with that. I think Baker Mayfield is a punk and the Mullett rocks. Go Pokes!
LSU (CFP 19, F/+ 29) @ ‘Bama (CFP 2, F/+ 4). Don’t waste your time. The Tide are 21.5-point favorites. LSU might cover the spread, but they ain’t winning this game.
VA Tech (CFP 13, F/+ 15) @ Miami (CFP 10, F/+ 14). The Hokies are favored by 1 point in Miami. S&P+ has VaTech by 2.5, so it’s basically a pick ‘em. I’m picking the Hokies. They've got some serious momentum, while Miami has been regressing. Besides, I really want to see a VaTech-Clemson rematch in the ACC CG.
USC (CFP 17, F/+ 18) vs. Arizona (CFP 22, F/+ 23). This probably the best football game tomorrow that no one east of the Rockies is going to see. Since taking over as the starter four games ago for the Wildcats, Khalil Tate has amassed 743 yards passing and 840 yards rushing. Yeah, that’s right; he’s averaging 396 yards of total offense per game. The Trojans are 7-point favorites according to Vegas and S&P+. AU has moved up from #44 in Week 6, to #32 in Weeks 7 & 8, and now sits at #23 in F/+. The Wildcats are trending up with Tate at QB, and I like them to upset USC.
For anyone interested in seeing a complete breakdown of Vegas spread, S&P+, & F/+ projections, Bill Connelly has an awesome weekly article with a link to the mother of all spreadsheets.
