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Three Random Musings Ahead of Tomorrow's Showdown in the Shoe

+5 HS
DaiTheFlu's picture
October 27, 2017 at 7:40pm
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I'm not sure about the rest of you, but any time Ohio State has a massive upcoming game, I read just about any piece of analysis, insight or game prediction that I can get my hands on. This is a nice way of saying that I've gotten very little work accomplished this week, but that's a different topic for a different day. Despite all of this research, I still don't have a great feel for what's going to happen tomorrow, which could be good (I felt this way in basically every game against a ranked team in 2014), or it could be very bad (2015 MSU, Clemson last year). So, to help calm the nerves and maybe clear things up a bit, I'm going to lay out 3 random tidbits that may or may not impact tomorrow's game. 

  1. The Urban Meyer factor - This actually comes into play in two areas here: The "revenge" factor and the bye-week. Urban Meyer-led teams typically excel in both of these scenarios, so that may bode well for tomorrow. I also read that Urban Meyer has rarely lost to the same team twice (Maybe Auburn at UF? I don't recall where I saw this). God help us all if Penn State is the team that changes this trend; I loathe that program and its fans with a burning passion; more on this below.                                                                
  2. Expert Predictions vs. Advanced Stats - Many of the "expert" predictions I've read have called for a PSU victory probably about 60/40 in favor of Penn State. Every guy on the B10 Blog on ESPN predicted a Lion win, as did Teddy Greenstein and most of the CBS Sports guys. On the other hand, advanced metrics love the Buckeyes. Bud Elliot, the SB Nation betting guru, also sees the Buckeyes prevailing tomorrow. What does this mean, if anything? Advanced metrics aren't infallible, but one article draws parallels between the fancy stats for Ohio State this year and those in 2014. Interesting, right?                                                  
  3. Franklin and Penn State on the Road - Yes, PSU took it to a very mediocre Michigan team last week, albeit one with a stout (we think?) defense. One big caveat, however: that was a night game, a "revenge" game, and one that was played during a White-out at home. I did a little research on Franklin's road record with the Lions and the results were surprising. In 2014, they went 2-2 in road games (wins against Rutgers and Indiana); in 2015 they went a shocking 0-4 on the road; in 2016 they went 3-2 on the road (wins against Purdue, Indiana and Rutgers); and thus far in 2017 they have gone 2-0 in road contests (victories against Iowa and Northwestern). It's interesting to note that, despite both road games this season resulting in PSU wins, those were the two games during which they struggled the most, particularly in Iowa City against what we now know to be an extremely average Hawkeye team, even by Big Ten COY Kirk Ferentz's standards. For those who weren't expecting math, Franklin is 7-8 in true road games, with the best of those wins being a last-second comeback against a 4-3 Iowa team. Penn State looks like a damn good team - certainly better than the middling squads of 2014 & 2015 - but they haven't yet proven that that they can go on the road against an elite team and walk out with a win. Obviously they CAN do that tomorrow, but the only points of reference that we have for the 2017 team are two lackluster performances against middle-of-the-road B1G outfits. 

Bonus point: This may prove to be controversial on a Buckeye site, but I have quickly grown to loathe Penn State more than any other team in the conference - including the weasels up north. Maybe it's just because TTUN hasn't proven to be as dangerous of a threat as Penn State - or maybe it's just because their delusional fans have suddenly developed into arrogant, cocky trolls (Visit BSD at your own risk, seriously). In short, I freaking HATE everything about that school and want nothing more than to bathe in their delicious, salty tears tomorrow night while watching ESPN highlights of Nick Bosa repeatedly battering the ribs of their 5'6" asshat Mc-douche of a QB. I always want Ohio State to win their games, especially those of this magnitude, but I probably haven't wanted a game this badly since 2014 MSU and the 2006 version of The Game. That fanbase is in dire need of a crushing beatdown.       

What say you, 11W members? Do you agree or disagree with any of these points, or are there other story lines that may have greater impact on tomorrow's game? Let's hear them.                  

This is a forum post from a site member. It does not represent the views of Eleven Warriors unless otherwise noted.

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