The AP and Coaches opinion polls are laughably ridiculous.  Well almost.  Here are the facts.

#1 Undefeated Alabama is rightfully a unanimous choice.  But...

#3 Louisville?  They are now ranked ahead of #5 Clemson.  Yet Clemson beat them in a head-to-head match up 42-36, and the committee puts emphasis on those rare matches.  And worse yet, Louisville is in the same division as Clemson.  So if Clemson wins out, they will go to the ACC championship game, not Louisville.  And Clemson only has one league game remaining-- against 6-4 Wake Forest (and a rivalry game against 5-5 South Carolina of the SEC).  So Clemson with DeShaun Watson will play in the ACC title game against the other division's winner either 7-3 North Carolina or 7-3 Virginia Tech.

You can see where this is going.  The smart money is obviously betting on Clemson being the ACC conference champ and going to the CFP playoffs.

Louisville at #3 ridiculous.  They will likely be a one-loss team that did not even win their division and did not even play for, let alone win, their conference championship.

#4. Michigan?  In losing to unranked, 4-loss Iowa, Michigan was exposed as an imposter with an easy schedule-- 8 out of 12 games are played at home.  They could only generate 98 yards rushing and 103 yards passing against Iowa, and yet are ranked ahead of Clemson and Washington.

On the final Saturday, Michigan must face top-10 rival Ohio State in Columbus– one of their few games away from home.  If they win, and that's a big if, they will go to the Big Ten championship game as division champs having already clobbered Penn State 49-10.  There they will meet one of two 2-loss teams, either Nebraska or Wisconsin, whom they beat previously.  If Michigan can beat Ohio State they are likely Big Ten champs and headed to the CFP playoffs.

So the loss to Iowa, who is not in their division, actually did not hurt Michigan in the least in getting the Big Ten championship.  But it did hurt...

#2 Ohio State?  Nothing new here. The Buckeyes have not been in control of their Big Ten or CFP destiny since losing to #9 Penn State.  The Bucks were looking forward to beating Michigan as is traditional.  But this year beating Michigan also put Ohio State in a 3-way tie of one-conf-loss teams with Michigan and Penn State.  However, with Michigan's loss to Iowa, then their later losing to Ohio State makes them a 2-conf-loss team, and thus Penn State is in a two-way tie with only Ohio State.  Penn State wins because of their head-to-head victory over the Buckeyes.

Well what are the chances Penn State loses again?  The facts are they play 2-8 Rutgers, who hasn't won a Big Ten game, and finish at home with 3-7 Michigan State, which is having an unbelievably terrible season, altho' they did win their last game 49-0 against-- you guessed it-- Rutgers.  So don't hold your breath waiting for Penn State to lose.

Thus like Louisville, Ohio State will likely be a one-loss team that does not even win its division let alone its conference.  Penn State will go on to the title game and face either Nebraska or Wisconsin.

So Ohio State being ranked #2 is extremely "iffy."  Nevertheless, if Nebraska or Wisconsin beats Penn State in the title game in Indy, then Ohio State might have a good chance since they have only one loss, and both Nebraska and Wisconsin have two losses.  And more importantly, both have lost to Ohio State in the important head-to-head match-ups.

However, if Penn State wins the Big Ten championship, then Ohio State is almost certainly left out due to losing the important head-to-head match-up.

Wisconsin #5?  Wisconsin is in control.  They will be in the playoffs if they just win.  And winning won't be too hard in the regular season, with remaining games against Purdue and Minnesota.  Then they head to the Big Ten title game, most likely against Penn State.  Again if they win, they're probably in the CFP as conference champions, despite close losses to both Michigan and Ohio State.

Washington #6?  After a disappointing loss to So Cal, Washington is still in the playoffs if they can just win.  That will not be easy with a final game against #20 rival 8-2 Washington State.  And a win there propels them to the Pac-12 title game, where they will face either #11 Utah, #12 Colorado or #15 So Cal who just whipped them.  So it won't be easy.  But they are in control.

If Washington loses again, which is likely, then the Pac-12 will definitely be out of the CFP playoffs, because every team in the Pac-12 will have at least two losses!

Big XII? The only team in the Big XII that is undefeated in conference play is Oklahoma.  And the Sooners already have two losses-- and one was a drubbing by Ohio State.  The best teams in the Big XII already have two or more losses, except for lightly regarded West Virginia with one loss to– you guessed it-- Oklahoma.  So West Virginia will not be the conference champ unless Oklahoma loses.

So we almost certainly have: Alabama from the SEC and Clemson from the ACC in the playoffs, and then... ?

All this may open up the playoffs for either Louisville or Ohio State, neither of whom even won their division.  But both would be top-10 ranked, one-loss teams (assuming the Bucks beat Michigan).  Louisville might be more attractive with their likely Heisman-winner Lamar Jackson.  However, Ohio State would have a great resume highlighting a "body of work" that includes defeating top-10 teams: Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Nebraska and Michigan! 

So don't give up hope.  The facts show that it's still possible, if not probable, especially if Penn State or Washington lose again.  Those are the hard facts.

The moral?  Don't lose!  And if you lose, lose early and to a non-conference foe.