I don't have a clue.
Oregon enters the National Championship Game with several statistical strengths. The Ducks are ranked in the top 20 in the following 10 statistical categories.
- Rushing Offense (17th)
- Offensive 4th Down Conversions (17th)*
- Punt Returns (12th)
- Passing Offense (11th)
- Offensive 3rd Down Conversions (4th)
- Total Offense (3rd)
- Scoring Offense (2nd)
- Offensive First Downs (2nd)*
- Turnover Margin (2nd)*
- Team Passing Efficiency (1st)*
As you can see above, Oregon excels in offense. Stop the offense and you stop the Ducks.
*I did not track this stat with the Ohio State Effect in 2014.
Below you will see what the Buckeyes' defense did to opponents and their Points Scored stats. The teams are listed in order of their Points Scored Average entering the game. Teams with the highest Points Scored Average entering the game are listed first.
Note:
Negative (-) numbers are good for Ohio State
Positive (+) numbers are bad for Ohio State
3 Things
- Only two teams (Michigan State and Cincinnati) have passed for over 300 yards against Ohio State this season.
- Ohio State's defense held 11 of its 14 opponents under their passing yards average.
- The Buckeyes were able to hold 7 teams below their season passing average by 50 yards or more.
| Team | Avg. Before Ohio State | Passing Yards Against OSU | Difference | Rank Before | Rank After |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati | 353.5 | 352 | - 1.5 | 9th | 9th |
 |
311.0 | ----- | ----- | 11th | ----- |
| Illinois | 284.0 | 137 | - 147.0 | 30th | 36th |
| Penn State | 282.3 | 224 | - 58.3 | 32nd | 34th |
 |
281.0 | 237 | - 44.0 | 21st | 28th |
| Rutgers | 267.5 | 196 | - 71.5 | 36th | 47th |
| Virginia Tech | 266.0 | 199 | - 67.0 | 45th | 69th |
| Maryland | 262.4 | 244 | - 18.4 | 48th | 50th |
| Michigan State | 260.4 | 358 | + 97.6 | 42nd | 34th |
| Kent State | 238.5 | 79 | - 159.5 | 66th | 103rd |
| That Team | 162.8 | 251 | + 88.2 | 113th | 112th |
| Wisconsin | 147.8 | 187 | + 39.2 | 117th | 117th |
| Indiana | 146.4 | 114 | - 32.4 | 116th | 118th |
| Minnesota | 140.2 | 85 | - 55.2 | 120th | 121st |
| Navy* | 122.0 | 20 | - 122.0 | 122nd | 111th |
| Averages | 229.6 | 178.8 | - 50.8 | 66th | 71st |
*Navy before stats based on 2013 season.
Below is a compilation of the average season stats of the teams Ohio State played in 2014. To get a fair comparison for the "Ohio State Effect" I removed the passing yards opponents gained against Ohio State and divided the total by the number of games played through 1-4-2015 less the Buckeyes.
| Team | Season Avg. Without Ohio State | Passing Yards Against Ohio State | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
|
|
311.0 | ----- | ----- |
| Cincinnati | 299.6 | 352 | + 52.4 |
|
|
281.0 | 237 | - 44.0 |
| Illinois | 259.2 | 137 | - 122.2 |
| Michigan State | 257.9 | 358 | + 100.1 |
| Kent State | 246.5 | 79 | - 167.5 |
| Penn State | 234.2 | 224 | - 10.2 |
| Rutgers | 230.0 | 196 | - 34.0 |
| Virginia Tech | 218.9 | 199 | - 19.9 |
| Maryland | 218.2 | 244 | + 25.8 |
| That Team | 162.9 | 251 | + 88.1 |
| Minnesota | 146.5 | 85 | - 61.5 |
| Wisconsin | 145.8 | 187 | + 41.2 |
| Indiana | 143.9 | 114 | - 29.9 |
| Navy | 86.5 | 20 | - 66.5 |
| Averages | 209.4 | 178.8 | - 30.6 |
In 2013 Ohio State's defense allowed opponents to gain 268.0 passing yards per game. The 2014 version of the Silver Bullets is holding teams to just under 179 yards of passing offense. That is a almost a 90 yards improvement. Hats off to the defensive players and coaches.
Do I expect Ohio State to hold Oregon to under 200 yards passing? No. Under 300? If the averages hold true Oregon should finish with 266 passing yards.
