I know nobody gives a shit, and they shouldn't, but I intentionally missed viewing an osu game for the first time on Thursday in probably 30 years on Thursday and will likely do the same tomorrow. I only mention this because I am the type of person who watches the Maine game multiple times on DVR by choice. I have spent a lot of time (an embarassing amount) defending Holtmann on here and social media. And I am giving up on this season and losing faith in Holtmann in general. At this point, if he is losing guys like me, how can he win back this fan base?

And I think we have to look deeper than the "6 years, no titles, no Sweet 16s" statements we see over and over. I'm not denying that, but look at the comparison of his first 3 years at osu versus the last 3 years.

In my humble opinion, he generally got the most out of those teams. Yeah he inherited KBD and Tate in Year 1, but also had the most inconsistent player in osu history (Kam Williams), a 17 year old 3 star recruit (Musa Jallow), a former walk on (Andrew Dakich), and an overweight and generally shell of his future self (Kaleb Wesson), in the main rotation. In Year 2, Holt really took the brunt of the failed late years Matta recruiting misses as that team had very little talent, and Year 3 was all Holtmann's guys with the exception of the Wesson Bros (#75 and #274 recruits). Yet those teams could have easily been a banked Tony Carr three pointer, a bad 5 minute opening stretch against Gonzaga (down 15-0), and a pandemic from having two Sweet 16s (or better) and a Big 10 title. And for those that argue against the pandemic year ("come on, they were likely a 5 seed!"), teams that have a Top 25 offensive and defensive efficiency rating in KenPom have like a crazy 93% Sweet 16 advance rate. Bucks were #13 and #19 when the season got shut down. And speaking of KenPom, those 3 teams all had Top 25 defenses nationally (15th-25th-19th). The offenses in Years 1 and 3 had the best flow of all the Holtmann OSU teams. Year 2's offense was pretty clunky, but I don't blame the system that year, the talent just was not there. And Holtmann's teams never have super high assist numbers, but those 3 teams averaged between 13.4 and 14.8 a game.

Even if you disregard the close misses to Holtmann milestones, combine his 3 years at Butler and his first 3 years at OSU you get: Big East COY, Big 10 COY, three 2nd place finishes, 6 ncaa tourney appearances (if not for a pandemic), and 7 ncaa tourney wins. The 5 losses in the tourney were all to Top 4 seeded teams with 4 of them by single digits with one of those being in OT. 4 of those 6 teams had Top 25 offenses and 4 of those 6 teams had Top 25 defenses with the 19-20' team, as mentioned, had both.

It's not prime Thad Matta by any stretch, but it sure as hell looks like a resume' of a guy that is about to break through with some major accomplishments. Yet in the last 3 years, assuming they don't win 5 games in 5 days in Chicago, Holtmann has 2 ncaa appearances, 1 win, and a loss to a 15 seed. The osu defenses went from Top 25 every season to 82nd, 111th, and currently 111th again. The offensive efficiency numbers have still been good, but anyone that watches them regularly can see they rely more and more on individual playmaking (EJ, Duane, Malaki, Brice) and offensive rebounding (Kyle Young, Zed Key, etc.) put backs and less on ball movement and set plays for easy looks. They tend to fade in crunch time and even at the end of first halves, possibly due to the fatigue on just a couple individual players to consistently score one on one. The assist numbers have gone 13.0-12.8- to a pathetic 11.6 this season after they were nearly 15 assist per game teams in the first 3 years.

And yet, in the first 3 years at osu and 3 years at Butler, Holtmann had one 2nd rd draft pick and one undrafted NBA free agent in KBD and Tate. Assuming Brice leaves as a 1st rounder, in the last 3 years, he'll have 2 1st round picks (Brice and Malaki), 1 2nd round pick (EJ), and 1 undrafted free agent (Duane). And the results are much worse. Make it make sense.

I am not smart enough to know if the downward spiral is due more to roster construction, offensive/defensive system liabilities, or assistant coach selections. But does it matter? It all falls on him.

I like Holtmann. Seems like a great dude and I think he truly loves osu. I'll have no choice but to talk myself into him turning it around next year because that is the optimist that I am. And the only good thing about a total shit show season is the possibility that he makes major changes to those 3 categories: roster construction, off/def systems, and assistant coaches.

But I do think another head coaching gig would be best for him and osu. I saw where Ed Cooley is a possible replacement for Ewing at Georgetown. How perfect would Providence be for Holtmann? He is already familiar with and had great success in the Big East. And though Cooley just won the Big East and went to the Sweet 16, that was his 11th season. In his first 10, the Friars never were higher than 3rd place and went to 5 ncaa tourneys and won only 1 ncaa tourney game. If Holtmann could just get back to what he was doing the first 3 years at osu and his 3 years at Butler, they'll build him a damn statue on Providence's campus.

It's just a different set of expectations at osu and unfortunately I don't think he is up to the task to meet them. I think he was right on the cusp in those first 3 years with some bad luck mixed in, but things have started to go downhill since the Oral Roberts' loss and now we are in a free fall. Like I said, I'll have no choice but to trick myself into believing in him again if he comes back next year. But I really hope he takes another job even if it breaks up a lot of this young talent.