It just makes me feel even stronger that Kaleb Wesson will likely play only 3 years for the Buckeyes. I think Holtmann would much rather have a sit-out transfer like Jordan Brown to go along with a likely still raw sophomore Diallo if Kaleb does leave. But he has to keep all options open.
And even though I hate to say it because I really like the 12 kids we currently have on the roster, odds are that another player transfers, or maybe one of the Top 50 freshmen enters their name in the draft. The latter is probably a long shot, but no one really thought Kevin Heurter (Maryland, 2 years ago) or Iggy Bradzekis (UM, this year) were leaving as early as they did.
It would not surprise me at all if we lose 3-4 (Andre Wesson, Kaleb Wesson, and 1-2 others) and gain 3 (either 2 frosh and a sit out 2019-20 transfer or 3 frosh). That would keep the occupied scholarships at 11-12, which is Holtmann's ideal range.
It's probably a long shot that Brown comes here, but I actually think it would be an ideal situation.
I don't think that even if Kaleb slims down quite a bit and improves his game, his stock will be much different now than it is after his Junior year, which means the G-League or Europe would be his likely destination. But I have a hunch Kaleb is gone after his Junior year. Not sure how many kids have tested the NBA waters twice and returned both times, but I doubt the percentage is very high. And with Andre graduating and a 4th year of getting double teamed and beat up in the Big 10, making a little money playing basketball (even if it is not the NBA) probably will look pretty appealing.
So if he does leave, the only sure bets we have are a raw sophomore in Diallo and a couple of PFs in Liddell and Young playing the 5. Holtmann would more than likely bring in another PF/C, but it is not like we have the inside track on any 5 star center. So we would be looking at playing either Diallo or a true frosh like John Hugley 20 plus mins a game at the 5, which neither may be ready for.
If you bring in Brown, you got a guy likely able to play 20-25 mins a game, Diallo could play 10-15, and maybe a few mins a game with Young or Liddell at the 5.
There is some protection. With the new 20 game schedule, in a 6 year cycle, the in-state opponents play each other 12 times, regional opponents play 10 times, and all other opponents play 9 times.
I cannot find anywhere who the designated regional opponents are (maybe Kevin or another 11W staff member knows), but Bloomington and Ann Arbor are both within 250 miles of Columbus, so I would think UM and IU would qualify.
If that is the case, in 4 of the next 5 seasons we will play each school twice, though not all 4 double play seasons will coincide like they are next season. And I would imagine, the 1 season for each school that we only play once, those two games would be in Columbus since we had road only match-ups with both schools last year.
I think last year was just a weird quirk in the schedule having to play each team once and both on the road.
I dig it. It was going to be tough no matter who the match-ups were because the Big 10 will be loaded again.
Last season we did not have UM or Indiana at home, which to me are the two biggest fan draws just based on name. A bummer we don't have Sparty at home, but having 4 of the Top 5 fan draws (IU, UM, Wisky, Purdue) at home, in my humble opinion, is a good thing.
Also, considering the bloodbath in West Lafayette last season, kinda nice we get a year off from playing @Purdue.
I am fully aware there are plenty of redshirted players out there. I just wasn't sure if players committed to programs knowing they would likely redshirt.
Who is the funniest player on the current team? The most serious one (if one exists)?
Fair enough. I plead ignorance.
Honest question: Do college basketball players commit to schools under the premise they will more than likely redshirt? I have seen other posters bring up that idea with Diallo as well.
I honestly don't know. It just seems unlikely nowadays. The transfer rate continues to get higher and higher every year. I know redshirts happen, though you can count them on one hand at osu in the last 15 years, but kids commiting knowing they will redshirt? It's hard for me to believe, but maybe it does happen.
Holtmann has also talked quite a bit about having class balance. Granted, things are so fluid in college basketball with the transfer rate and kids leaving early for pro ball, that classes rarely remain intact regardless of the size. But I still think Holtmann would prefer to have 2-4 scholarships per class.
Based on that philosophy, and the make up of the team, here are my shot in the dark predictions:
Andre Wesson graduates (not really a prediction, he runs out of eligibility)
Kaleb Wesson leaves early. Not sure he will be a projected nba pick even if he returns this year and improves quite a bit. It just seems likely he would still follow that Trevor Thompson route (leave a year early, play in the G-League/overseas).
Buckeyes offer and sign 2020 PF/C John Hugley
Buckeyes land a commitment from a 2020 SG/SF: Moses Moody, Ethan Morton, Brandon Boston, or someone they will offer this Spring or Summer.
That would leave the Buckeyes with 12 scholarships again for the 2019-20 season.
I could see the Bucks losing another to transfer or early entry as well. In that case, I imagine Holtmann would add a grad transfer or a late 2020 recruit, similar to the addition of Diallo this year. But I could just as easy see Holtmann staying put with 11 if he does not find a guy he seems worth it. That would likely set up for a 4 player 2021 class.
'A few years before he makes any kind of impact at either end of the floor?'
So, will he have graduated college by the time he is worth a scholarship in your opinion?
Johnson averaged 6.8, 6.4, and 7.4 pts in his first 3 seasons at Ohio State. I'd say that was pretty decent production considering what he brought to the table as a shot blocker on the defensive end.
I notice you conveniently left off the two players with the best shooting strokes on the team: Washington and Ahrens. Though Duane struggled pct wise (31%), he obviously has a good looking shot. Hopefully his shot selection improves as a sophomore and should get more open looks with more natural ball handlers and better quickness at the pg spot in Carton and Walker.
Ahrens shot 39% on threes and in the Iowa game alone showed his potential from the outside when given open looks. That kid can stroke it.
Wesson and Jallow will never be great 3 point shooters in my humble opinion. But Musa's 3 pt pct jumped from 25% as a freshmen to 33% as a sophomore. And Andre's jumped from 29% as a soph to 34% as a junior. If both can stay in the mid 30s range, that will be more than fine considering shooting is not the main reason they are on the floor.
As for Muhammad, despite a terrible late season slump he ended up shooting 38% on threes, which is pretty darn solid, especially for a Freshmen.
Also, keep in mind, players get better, especially when it comes to outside shooting. Jon Diebler shot 29% on 3s as a Freshmen. He shot over 40% as a soph and junior and led the country his senior year at 50%. David Lighty shot 20% on threes as a Freshmen, 33% as a soph, 38% as a junior, and 43% as a senior.
I think it will be more like 5-10 mins a game unless Diallo really surprises. With the flexibility that Liddell and Gaffney bring to the table and hopefully with a healthy Kyle Young, I still think we will see some small ball lineups. I am probably in the minority, but I think the small ball lineups will be way more effective next season and I am looking forward to seeing them in action.
I am excited to add a 7 footer, but I think he is probably a full season away from Holtmann feeling comfortable playing Diallo for long stretches. And I am perfectly ok with that. Bring him along slowly and hopefully he is ready for bigger minutes in his 2nd year.
I respect his decision to try to play the SF/PF spot somewhere else. But on the other hand, if he embraced playing the 5 spot, he is almost guaranteed 8-12 mins every night next year. Holtmann is currently going after a super raw 7 foot frosh with minimal offensive skills or possibly a grad transfer that did not work out super well here with minimal offensive skills to play those mins.
And who knows how things turn out if Ledee stays past next season? I am pretty confident Kaleb is returning this year, but could definitely see him taking the Trevor Thompson route. Test the waters this year, and then leave next year despite being only a late 2nd round or worse prospect. So then Jaedon has the inside track to be the starting 5. And maybe Ledee has a 3 point shot at that point. Holtmann obviously has no problem with his centers expanding their game to the 3 pt line.
Or after next season, Andre Wesson is definitely gone and maybe another forward transfers or leaves early opening up mins at the 4 for Ledee.
I hope he goes on to have a successful career somewhere else. But it would not necessarily shock me if he ends up in a similar position to what Daniel Giddens is in now. The grass isn't always greener somewhere else.
D'Angelo Russell's gifs are so much better than Micah Potter's gifs. Not even close.
Actually you can hire an agent and still come back starting this year. I think the player just has to terminate whatever agreement he had with the agent before he returns.
Iowa is ranked in quite a few of these early lists. And Lunardi has Iowa as a 3 seed.
Obviously it is not great losing Schrage on the recruiting front. But I would be more concerned if we lost Pedon as well.
I feel like losing one good recruiter on staff can be handled alright, but losing two in the same season could be devastating. As well as Schrage has done recruiting in his short time, Pedon has arguably done just as well being the lead recruiter for Liddell, Gaffney, Ahrens, and Washington.
Not bad timing either. Although it could potentially hurt a little on the Diallo front, we don't have any 2020 or 2021 verbal commits. So a staff change up right now should not hurt too much.
Tough to judge based on completely different circumstances: the depth of the league at those times, how many teams were in the conference, what Buckeye teams they inherited (Ayers took over an absolutely loaded team), etc.
The league was pretty top heavy in Holtmann's 1st season (Bucks went 15-3, barely missing a title), but it was probably as deep as it has been in my lifetime (41 years old) this past year. All 14 teams were in the Top 105 of Kenpom rankings and 8 made the NCAA tourney, with 13 wins and counting.
Next season should not be much different with very few graduating seniors and not too many early entry candidates :Langford, Fernando, Edwards, Coffey, etc.
I agree with you on Minney if Coffey comes back (he declared but could obviously come back). I know they had a really solid freshmen class this past season, but losing Murphy, McBrayer, and Coffey would be a lot. And Richard Pitino is a potential candidate to get the Arkansas job.
The jury is still out on Miller and Underwood for me. IU obviously had a lot of talent this past year (beat Sparty twice), but the chemistry just seemed off. Maybe Romeo just did not click with the rest of the team. Regardless, they will be replacing a lot of scoring with Langford and Morgan. As for Illinois, can Underwood's style (high risk, high reward defense)work consistently in the Big 10? I know it worked well against us, but we haven't had the best quickness and ball handling skills at the pg spot the last couple of years. They will bring nearly everyone back though, so they will be no slouch.
As for Nebraska, Hoiberg is replacing 3 seniors that were the top scorers on team (Palmer, Copeland, and Watson), plus their 5th leading scorer is transferring (Thomas Allen). I know 'the mayor' has great luck with transfers, but he will have to hit the lottery for Nebraska to be close to a tourney team.
I think the team you did not mention that could contend for Top 3-4 is Iowa. They stumbled down the stretch of the Big 10 but basically won a road game versus Cincy and took a really good Tennessee team to OT. Unless Cook leaves for the NBA, they will essentially bring their whole team back.
I counteracted your downvote, but getting in the Top 4 of the Big 10 next year is likely going to be very difficult. Likely projected Top 4:
1. MSU- should bring back everyone but McQuaid and Goins from a Final 4 team (maybe reigning national champs). And they will add Josh Langford.
2. Michigan- will likely bring back 4 of 5 starters (def lose Charles Matthews) from a Sweet 16 team. They will also bring back one of the most consistent bench players in the Big 10: Isaiah Livers.
3. Maryland- Even if Fernando does not come back, they will likely have a senior pg (Cowan), 2 potential Nba draft picks (Smith and Wiggins), and a solid returning soph in Eric Ayala.
4. Purdue- with Carsen they would be 1 or 2. But even w/o him, they likely bring back both big men in Haarms and Williams, one of the best defenders in the Big 10 in Eastern, and some promising young players in Hunter and Wheeler.
I'd imagine most analysts/media outlets will have OSU at somewhere between 5th and 7th in the Big 10.
If the team stays relatively healthy, relatively unsuspended, and adds some post depth (Diallo and/or a grad transfer):
Big 10 Standing: 4th-7th (Buckeye fans may not want to hear it, but the Big 10 should be just as tough or tougher next year. The Michigan schools should be clear cut favorites, with Purdue and Maryland not far behind. If Carsen Edwards returns for Purdue and Bruno Fernando for Maryland, you can probably put them right up there with Sparty and the Wolverines).
NCAA Tournament wins: 1-3.
As for the following season. If the young players progress and most everyone returns (Dre Wesson and whatever senior grad transfer would be the only two they would definitely lose), the expectations I think would raise considerably for 2020-21:
Big 10 Standing: 3rd or better
NCAA Tourney Wins: 2-6
That are willing to likely play 8-12 mins a game? Not sure about that.
I think he was listed at either 6'10" or 6'11" out of high school. He was ranked as the #10 center in the country, #51 overall.
He had offers from Ohio State, Kansas, Arizona, Indiana, and 9 other schools.
There were rumors out there that his academics were in terrible shape and he had basically stopped going to class.