I wanted to do a basic analysis on Ohio State basketball starting at the 1959-1960 season and onwards to see, based on the data, what would be a facts-based standard for the men's basketball program, and then also see if that aligned with where I have always thought the program should be at.

I did my best to account for the wonky number of teams in the NCAA Tournament pre-1985. Feel 100% free to tell me that I screwed this up if you notice anything flawed. I started at 1959-1960 because that gives us 6+ decades of results and I think that's more than enough to determine what the actual standard for this program has been. I won't bore you with details or calculations, just results. I acquired all of the data from https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/ohio-state/men/

For what our record should be in B1G play, I took our winning % in conference play since 1959-60 and applied it to today's 20 game conference schedule, and with rounding included it's fair to expect us to go 12-8 in any given year. As far as B1G regular season titles, we've won 14 since 1959-1960 so that gives us around a 22% hit rate. We've only won the B1G tourney 4 times (started in 1998), good for a 17% hit rate.

For what our record each season should be, our overall winning % since 1959-1960 is ~65% so lets apply that to a 35 game season and your record is going to be somewhere around 23-12. 

There was not a "Round of 64" type of deal in the NCAA Tournament until 1979, so taking that into consideration as best as I possibly could you can expect OSU to make the NCAA Tournament 60% of the time, make the Round of 32 40% of the time, make the Sweet 16 25% of the time, make the Elite 8 15% of the time, make the Final Four 10% of the time, and make the National Title game 5% of the time.

SO BASED ON ALL OF THIS.

The historical standard applied to today would be a 23-12 (12-8) type of season. R64 every 6 out of 10 years. R32 every 4 out of 10 years. S16 every 1 out of 4 years. Elite 8 once or twice a decade. Final Four once a decade. National Title game once every 20 years. You should win a B1G regular season title twice a decade, and win the B1G tournament once or twice a decade.

Now, the first debate is "Should the standard be higher" and of course I WANT it to be higher but realistically in this era I would still say yes but not like a IT NEEDS TO BE WAY BETTER type of way. I'd like to see us in the tournament every 8 out of 10 years and R32 every 6 out of 10 years, but I think a S16 once every 4 years is fair. The historical standard for B1G regular season and tournament titles is okay with me because I look at a good conference season as finishing in the Top 4 and getting a double bye and then winning your Friday game in the tourney.

So anyways, my last thought would of course be "How does Chris Holtmann compare to this historical standard?" Favorably in some areas, not so favorably in others. His overall winning % and conference winning % are close to this standard but slightly below. He will be 4/5 making the tournament (matching MY standard), He's 3/5 making the Round of 32 (matching MY standard). He's fallen short of the historical standard and my standard and will be 0/5 making the S16, Elite 8, Final Four or National Title game. He's fallen short of the historical standard and my standard by going 0/6 winning the B1G regular season and barring a miracle will be 0/5 winning the B1G tournament. He did make the conference title game and lose it in OT, which I will give him credit for.

I really hate to say this but based off doing this study, I am now a bit more willing to give Holtmann next year to see if he can have a break through. I really don't have a choice anyways, right? But now I'm a bit more optimistic about it. If Holtmann can't get them over the hump, he's going to regret that Oral Roberts game for the rest of his life. That team wasn't winning a national title, but the path to the Elite 8 was paved with frosting and sprinkles. Would have bought him some serious goodwill among the fan base for a season like we are experiencing now.

I've seen Brice anywhere from 11th to 30th on Mock Drafts. If the staff can get him to come back, that would be ridiculously awesome. I think you have to assume he's gone. It's imperative that the 3 other freshman get as much playing time as possible to finish out this season, and that the staff keeps them out of the portal. I don't expect them to leave but you just never know. I'm going to assume Sueing-McNeil-Ice all move on with their lives (I don't know if those guys have COVID years or not) and Brice goes to the NBA. With the new guys coming in your back to the maxed out 13 scholarships...I think either Holden transfers or they take Spencer of scholarship so I hope they go out and find a dawg in the portal who can play both sides of the ball and isn't afraid to be vocal. Obviously all this is moot if the miracle of Sensabaugh coming back happens.

I still don't think Holtmann is going to turn this all around. But I am hoping to be proven wrong. Historically, he hasn't been as bad as I thought but also the data verifies we are justified in feeling frustration with no conference titles or Sweet 16's.

At the very least, I feel like I have a baseline to judge any given OSU season based on history going back 60+ years. And that is what I will be judging the team on going forward. Curious what you guys think, and thank you if you took the time to read this entire novel!