I was reading the preview for the showdown with Oregon, and this line jumped out at me:

According to 247Sports’ Team Talent Composite, which ranks teams based on how much cumulative talent they’ve recruited, Oregon is the ninth-most talented team in college football this year; no other team Ohio State will play during the regular season is ranked higher than 15th (Michigan).

I’ve had some conversations about who the best teams versus most talented teams in CFB are, particularly because I am not a believer in Georgia.  In fact, I don't think any coach in America has done less with more than Kirby Smart.  However, Georgia has the most five star players in the country, so they’re widely considered the most talented team in CFB (at least in conversation).  So, I clicked that link and went to check out the composite rankings.

I found a lot of really interesting things when I compared the numbers.  I’ll just say that comparing the B1G to the SEC was very interesting, but not necessarily in a good way for us.  What it really is is enlightening.

• The SEC only has 2 schools with a composite ranking below 700 (Mizzou and Vandy).
• The B1G only has 6 schools with a composite ranking above 700. (The ACC has 6, the Big XII has 3, and the Pac 12 surprisingly has 7).
• Only 4 schools in the SEC lack at least one five-star player, compared to 6 in the B1G.
• The BIG has a total of 26 five-star players, compared to 59 in the SEC.
• Alabama (14) and Georgia (19) combined have more five-star players than the entire B1G.
• Ohio State (15) has more five-star players than the rest of the B1G combined (11 – TTUN leads the way with 3).
• Ohio State (15) has more five-star players than each of the other 3 P5 conferences: ACC (14 – Clemson leads the way with 10), Pac 12 (9 – Oregon has 4), and the Big XII (14 – OU has 7).
• The SEC has 6 schools with greater than 40 four-star players, compared to just 3 in the B1G.
• Lower that number all the way to 21 (four-star players) and the B1G picks up just one more team, for a total of 4, while the SEC has 10 teams with 21 or more four-star players.
• Notre Dame is a bit of an outlier in all of this with just one five-star, but they do have 44 four-stars, and a composite ranking (853) that would comfortably rank them 2nd in the B1G and 6th in the SEC.

So, what does all this mean?  Well, it means that even if we throw in the perceived mystery of Ohio State recruits slipping in the recruiting rankings, it still doesn’t take away from the obvious talent gap.  And, it is also very telling when you consider teams that have more than one CFP appearance. 

One thing that jumped out at me is who's missing - LSU.  LSU just looks more schizophrenic than ever when you consider their recruiting success versus their lack of overall success, even with the 2019 National Championship.  They have 6 five-stars, 43 four-stars, and a composite ranking of 903.72 (ranks 3rd in the SEC), which would be first or second in every other P5 conference, and they're pretty much an average-to-above-average football team.  It's crazy to think that a school piping in as much talent as they are in Baton Rouge has only one CFP appearance, granted they made it count.  

When I look at that table above, it tells me exactly why the same teams that have been mainstays in the College Football Invitational Playoff will just continue to comprise at least 75% of the field (as long as it's a four-team format).  It also tells me why teams that get there and get thumped are good enough to win the regular season games they need to win to get there, but also why they're not good enough to get over that final hurdle. 

This also explains why the SEC enjoys the success in bowl games that they do.  When they send their number 4, 5, or 6 teams out to square off with the number 4, 5, or 6 team in the B1G, for example, they are just flat out sending more talent to the bowl game.  That's not even a disputable opinion, it's a fact.  In 2021, if we pair up the composite rankings of these teams it would look like this:

• Florida (890.57) vs Wisconsin (750.89)
• Texas A&M (888.83) vs Nebraska (743.70)
• Auburn (840.38) vs Maryland (705.79)

When you factor in that the B1G teams listed there may not actually even finish that high in the standings, it just means the SEC team will face a squad with even less talent.  Now, I fully realize that a team like Iowa (composite 657.39) could have a hell of a season, and on any given day even rise up and pull off an upset.  But, you have to consider the composition of a team with zero five-stars and 10 four-stars.  At some point, talent and speed matters.  If you put them in the CFP against a team with more five-stars than they have four-stars, there aren't enough intangibles, RS-Seniors, and crafty game plans for even a legendary coach like Kirk Ferentz to have anything more than a puncher's chance at pulling off a monumental upset.

So, expand the playoff to 12 or 16 teams, and it won't change anything.  Until this talent gap changes, the teams that are committed to the cause will continue to hoist the trophy and do confetti angels on the turf.