I thought I'd share some light analysis I've been doing on the "House Money" articles, in case anyone is interested.

Methodology:

It's actually pretty simple: I've been weighting picks based on win percentage of the pickers (ex: Ramzy and Vance get higher weights because of their win percentage). If a picker is 500 or below on their picks, they are thrown out. The others are weighted relative to their win % (this has been roughly trial and error).

Each team in a matchup is assigned a 1 or a 2, an average is then calculated based on weights. The closer a team's average is to 1 or 2, the more confidence there is that the team will cover (example to follow). 

FOR EXAMPLE:

This weeks game of Notre Dame (-17.5) v VTech has the following picks

Chris - ND; Ramzy - VT; Jones - ND; Ellis - ND; Wertheim-ND; Regimbal-ND; Vance-VT; (With Kevin and Dan's picks thrown out)

ND = 1

VT = 2

Because of weights this game comes out as a 1.5 with both Ramzy and Vance's picks weighted higher than the others -- based on just the staff picks, this would be a game that I would stay away from.

Another example would be Florida vs UGA (-5.5)

Chris-FL;Ramzy-UGA;Jones-FL;Ellis-UGA; Wertheim-FL; Regimbal-UGA; Vance-UGA

FL = 1

UGA = 2

With weights, the game comes out at 1.8 (.2 away from 2). I would say this is a higher confidence bet on UGA (again based strictly on staff picks).

The weights I have for this week are

Chris = .05; Ramzy= .25; Jones=.1; Ellis-.1; Wertheim=.05; Regimbal=.2; Vance=.25

Results: 

(1)Baylor (-17.5) vs (2)WVU = 1.0 = Baylor (L) (whoops guys)

(1)UM(-19) @ (2)Maryland = 1.25 = Michigan (high confidence)

(1) Nebraska(-2) @ (2)Purdue = 1.35 = Nebraska (med confidence as it moves closer to 1.5 and also, I've learned to never bet on Nebraska this year)

Notre Dame v VT (see above) = (1.5 = Push)

George v Florida = See Above (1.8 = UGA= high confidence)

(1) Florida State (-3.5) vs. (2)Miami = 1.2 = Miami (high confidence)

(1) Utah (-3.5) @ (2)Washington = 1.35 = Utah (med confidence)

(1) IU(12.5) vs (2)Northwestern = 1.0 = IU (highest of high confidence; however, see Baylor above)

(1)Memphis (-5.5) vs (2) SMU = 1.4 = Memphis (low confidence)

(1) Oregon (-5) @ (2) USC = 1.4 = Oregon (low confidence)

If the spread has moved since the picks were made, I will make a gametime decision, based on where it's moved.

Last weeks results using this method went 8-2 with Iowa, PSU, OSU, Bama, Rutgers, Auburn, Michigan, Minn all winning ATS. and Oklahoma and Texas losing ATS. Texas and Oklahoma had scores of 1.45 and 1.5, respectively, so they were low confidence games to begin with.

Not telling anyone to gamble away their life savings on this method, but it's been a fun little experiment. 

ALSO -- by no means am I a statistics expert, and please don't take this as me pretending to be. If people want to dive into R-squared correlations and how to actually weight picks scientifically, feel free to.