With rivalry weekend coming up, which of these games have the best chance for an upset? Here’s my takes:
No. 15 Auburn at No. 1 Alabama
Chance of upset: LOW—
Auburn has regressed since midseason and gave up 34 pts or more in 3 out of its past 4 games (excluding FCS opponent Samford). This is a team that had playoff hopes coming into November and is playing for pride at this point. Because of the letdown they’ve had in November, I don’t think this Auburn team has the necessary motivation and focus to upset the tide in Tuscaloosa. Bama is playing its best ball of the season and Saban will make sure his team is ready to go.
No. 2 Oregon at Oregon State
Chance of upset: VERY LOW—
Statistically, the only advantage Oregon State has is their passing O vs. Oregon’s passing defense. Expect Oregon State to make a few big plays on offense, but Mariotta and Oregon’s offense is going to roll and it will be way too tough for Oregon State to keep them off the field.
Florida at No. 3 Florida State
Chance of upset: MODERATE—
This game comes down to 2 matchups: Florida State Passing Offense (No. 10) vs. Florida Passing Defense (No.18) and Florida’s Rushing Offense (No.52) vs. Florida State’s Rushing Defense (No.44). If Florida can establish a consistent running game and keep Jameis off the field…they will win this game. I tend to think that this won’t happen since the game is in Tallahassee and Florida is in the middle of a lot of off-field issues and a coaching swap.
No. 4 Mississippi State at No. 19 Ole Miss
Chance of upset: MODERATE—
Ole Miss is another team that had playoff hopes coming into November. Losing heartbreakers to LSU and Auburn officially took them out of the running and I think that set the stage for the egg they laid against Arkansas. In terms of matchups, Ole Miss and Miss State match up evenly when running the ball but Ole Miss has the edge when passing (Miss State pass D is ranked #121 in the nation). If Ole Miss can forget about Arkansas and pass the football effectively, they have a very real chance at winning this game.
No. 5 TCU at Texas
LOW TO MODERATE—
Lots of ppl calling this an upset special but I just don’t see it. Both teams are good defensively, but TCU holds a significant edge when it comes to running the ball. Boykin also makes a lot of big time plays and is a freak athlete. It will come down to Texas’ ability to stop the run and sustain their own drives. They’re playing well and will be a force in the future, but TCU has too much firepower for this one.
BEST BETS: I think Ole Miss and Florida have the best chances at pulling upsets. Hopefully I’m wrong and more go down (with exception of tOSU of course)!!!
