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Morgan Stanley Publishes Full Timeline Of Upcoming Coronavirus Milestones; Sees Second Coronavirus Peak In December

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McGrind's picture
April 13, 2020 at 7:18pm
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This much longer tail would put the US time to peak at ~4x China and 2x Italy, driven by the slow uptake of social distancing measures and lack of robust testing. This would put an initial US reopening on track for mid-to-late May at the earliest.

It gets worse, with the biotech analyst also predicting that there "will still be a large number of workers not able to go back to work until a vaccine is abundantly available as social distancing cannot be fully relaxed until we have herd immunity (~60% of people vaccinated). Furthermore, large venues such as sports stadiums, concert halls and theme parks are also likely to remain shut or have attendance capped at 10-25% of prior levels."

Finally, and most ominous, Morgan Stanley warns that a potential second wave of infections could strike around November/December, which the bank hopes will be less severe than the current peak, although in truth nobody knows.

 

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