After thrashing then-No. 12 Michigan State last Saturday, the schizophrenic Ohio State Buckeyes celebrate Senior Day tomorrow against a 41-point underdog riding an eight-game losing streak in the Illinois Fighting Illini.
Nothing short of a dominant performance is necessary for the playoff-minded Buckeyes who must steamroll Lovie Smith's raggedy crew as the Ohio Stadium bids farewell to guys like J.T. Barrett, Billy Price, Jamarco Jones, Tyquan Lewis, Jalyn Holmes, Chris Worley, Tracy Sprinkle, Damon Webb, Marcus Baugh and others.
What should we make, if anything, of Barrett's interception issues the last two games? Where does Denzel Ward rank among the other stud corners during Urban Meyer's tenure?
In search of thoughts on these topics and more, we welcome national champion defensive end Simon Fraser to this week's roundtable alongside the venerable 11W duo of Ramzy and Vico.
Both the offensive and defensive lines had themselves a day against the Spartans as did the running backs and linebackers. Through 10 games, out of all the positional units, which has turned in the best performance against your expectations heading into the season?
Simon: From a defensive perspective, I knew our front seven; especially our defensive line was going to be outstanding. However, the defensive line is only as good as those who are around them, especially in the secondary. Losing Malik Hooker, Marshon Lattimore and Gareon Conley to the NFL was going to be a challenge. The secondary is one of the toughest units to replace, as communication and experience together are key to their success. These guys have grown tremendously over the season and have become a key part of our team.
Ramzy: It’s the running backs, who have delivered every time they’ve been allowed to participate in the offense. Behind them, the DL and the OL, then QB. Then it drops off when you get to defensive backs (understandably green) Zone Six (improved from Tire Fire to Six Starters But Still No Biletnikoff Candidates At All) and Linebackers (don’t throw on us, please).
Vico: Offensive line, incidentally. I was expecting Ohio State to be flimsy in pass protection and, accordingly, struggle in run-blocking the extent to which opposing defenses could stack the box to stop Ohio State's rushing attack. There's probably an overdetermined story to tell here about how, truly, offense is a "team" sport and even things like getting the ball out of the QB's hands quicker makes the offensive line's job easier. Still, Ohio State went from No. 71 in the country last year in sacks allow to now No. 32. I was No. 34 last year in TFLs allowed. This year: No. 6.
Denzel Ward has turned in a spectacular season leading the team with 12 passes defensed. Where would you rank him right now, as a college player, among the list of great corners to play at Ohio State during Urban’s tenure? For a refresher, that includes names like Gareon Conley, Bradley Roby, Marshon Lattimore and Eli Apple.
Vico: I'd rank him below Roby and Lattimore but above the rest. I'm pleased Ward's season so far though cynical me wonders where he ranks in terms of DPI calls. Ward doesn't have the head-swivel of Lattimore but I don't know where he ranks among those you mention in DPI penalties.
Simon: Yet another in a trend of fantastic defensive backs that have recently come through OSU. He has great strength, toughness and athletic ability. But I still think he has yet to reach his full potential. Future is bright!
Ramzy: He’s Doran Grant reincarnated, and there’s no shame in that - he was wonderful. I think the relative down year for the unit might exaggerate how good he’s been when you apply the right context. He’s the best cover guy they’ve got this year, a down year for that unit. They’re allowed to have a down year with the attrition they’ve had. It’s hard to succession plan when your Next Men Up go pro immediately.
J.T. Barrett, with two picks versus Michigan State, has six total in his two games against five touchdowns and while he completed 67% of his passes on Saturday, he wasn’t exactly pinpoint with his placement, underthrowing at least five tosses. Any concerns Barrett is sliding back after six straight strong performances? Why or why not?
Ramzy: Iowa was an outlier game. Michigan State was for another reason - the Buckeyes had like ten fewer passing attempts than in any other game because they ran the damn ball. It was cold and the only rhythm they needed came from Weber and Dobbins. Do I have concerns following a 45-point win over the 12th ranked team in the country? Yes, and they’re supernatural. Iowa showed what kind of spookiness was possible.
Vico: For the life of me, I'll never explain the Iowa game. I'll take that head-scratcher to my grave no closer to cracking it than I am to solving life's other mysteries. That said, I'm less worried about his performance against Michigan State. My own reading of that game is Barrett got lazy the more Ohio State was inclined to boat-race the Spartans.
That said, I do worry about Michigan. Michigan is not exactly the hottest team in the country but that defense is tough against everyone. Should Barrett throw a pick or two, I'm not inclined to attribute that to backsliding. Rather, I'll chalk that up to Michigan's defense being stout.
Simon: This is an interesting discussion. Everyone has their opinion about J.T. and why he has not been playing well. I believe what has hurt J.T. the most is that we have yet to define ourselves as an offense. When we run the power game with Dobbins and Weber our offense clicks. We put ourselves in to manageable situations, which opens up the options for J.T. down the field.
But when we play the spread, lateral running game and put ourselves behind on downs and end up in 3rd and long situations, J.T. struggles because we become predictable.
Ohio State football has always been built on the running game. When you look at the 2014 national championship season, the reason why J.T. and Cardale were so successful was because of Ezekiel Elliot and the respect defenses had to give our running game. J.T. is a great QB and should be recognized for all of his accomplishments as one of the best to play at OSU. It will be exciting to watch him play his last game at the Shoe on Saturday.
Safeties Jordan Fuller (54) and Damon Webb (47) lead Ohio State in tackles with linebackers Jerome Baker (44), Chris Worley (38) and Tuf Borland (38) behind them. Should we be concerned both safeties have more tackles than any linebackers? Maybe that’s a product of the linebacker rotations we’ve seen whereas safety hasn’t seen much rotation since Fuller cemented the starting role and the duo of Fuller/Webb are shining? Your thoughts?
Simon: Silver bullet defense! We fly to the ball. I am not concerned that the safeties are leading tacklers. When I played, guys like Mike Doss, Will Allen, Donte Whitner, etc. were in the top of total tackles. As long as we play like we did against Michigan State, I will be happy.
Vico: Yes, we should be concerned even if I'm not sure what we can do about it. There are few metrics more concerning for a team's defense than safeties leading linebackers in tackles. You can qualify that any number of ways but it's a reliable shorthand metric for a defense whose linebackers are absent from the play because safeties typically don't rack up TFLs. Indeed, Fuller and Webb have combined for four TFLs this year. We've seen that, by the way, in the two losses to Oklahoma and Iowa where linebackers removed themselves from the play by biting on play-action or just not playing disciplined football.
Ramzy: The linebackers have been undisciplined and self-own themselves routinely with poor or slow recognition. Yes, we should be concerned. Just about every year you’re able to visibly see who the “quarterback of the defense” is back there. They don’t seem to have one of those this year.
Ohio State’s defensive line continues to rotate a long list of studs including Sam Hubbard, Nick Bosa, Tyquan Lewis, Dre’Mont Jones and Jalyn Holmes. You’re starting an expansion college team tomorrow and you can only take one of these guys for one season. Who are you taking and why?
Ramzy: Bosa, because of his hands and motor. Also, passing on a Bosa would be very Brownsy, and nobody should ever be that.
Simon: Love them all but Tyquan Lewis is a beast with 4.5 sacks and 6.0 TFL. He has tremendous athletic ability and also is a strong leader on and off the field. You can build a team with guys like him.
Vico: I'll take Nick Bosa. He's a one-man gameplan for opposing offenses and the most productive DL we have. You felt his absence in the Iowa loss for that reason.
There’s still a lot of football left to play but Ohio State currently stands at No. 9 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings. What percentage chance do you give the Buckeyes of making it in? Assuming they don’t, is there a particular opponent or destination you’d like to see emerge?
Vico: I'm bearish. I see the playoff right now as Alabama, Clemson, Oklahoma, and Georgia with even Georgia getting in for two losses (Alabama, Auburn) better than what Ohio State has to offer. If you're asking for a percentage chance, I'm going around 20%. I've made peace with it. I only ask that we don't fall on the Group of Five grenade (UCF, in all likelihood) because no one truly wins a bowl game against a Group of Five team.
As for an ideal opponent in a bowl game: Stanford or Washington. I'd also take NC State if that were to happen. I just want something interesting and new and recent bowl projections of Ohio State vs. Notre Dame in the Cotton Bowl has me bored already. Really, though, I want a traditional Rose Bowl in my own mind if not the actual venue as the Rose Bowl is going to host a playoff game this year.
Ramzy: They have a clear path that involves winning out, in style, plus Miami/Oklahoma/Alabama winning out. Maybe 20% possible? It’s the 10-year anniversary of 2007, the craziest November possibly in the sport’s history. Ohio State didn’t play a game and went from like seventh to 1st in the BCS. Hey, maybe that could happen again. Just win, and I could stand to not see Glendale or Clemson again for awhile.
Simon: There is a lot of college football to be played with a lot of teams in front of Ohio State that have to play each other. It is small but there is always a chance if we do to Illinois, Michigan and Wisconsin what we did to Michigan State. A two-loss OSU Big Ten champion is a tough team to keep out of the playoffs. I will wait until the end of the season to see who is out of the playoffs to answer that last question.
The Buckeyes are a hefty 41-point favorite against a pitiful Illinois squad. Will they cover? Give us your final score and player to watch.
Simon: They will cover and knowing Urban, he knows that his only opportunity back in the playoffs is a blowout. OSU 63, Illinois 12.
Ramzy: 69-0 Buckeyes. Antonio Williams over 100 yards rushing against the Illini starters. Somewhere in America, Juice Williams sighs while checking the score on his phone. We Don’t Give a Damn for the Whole State of Michigan starts in the 3rd quarter.
Vico: I have Ohio State 55-10. Watch J.K. Dobbins run wild on Illinois' No. 105 rushing defense.
