Going for Two: Can the B1G Get Two Teams Into the College Football Playoff?

By Michael Citro on July 14, 2015 at 10:10 am
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The College Football Playoff era is still more or less in its infancy. You’re enjoying it so far—as am I—because Ohio State is 1-for-1 in the CFP era and has a very strong team coming back for Year 2.

Speaking of this upcoming second CFP season, could 2015 produce the first instance of a conference getting multiple teams into the playoff? If it does, could that conference possibly be the Big Ten?

To summarize: sure, but it might prove difficult.

If Ohio State does what it’s expected to do, the Buckeyes would likely be the No. 1 seed entering the four-team playoff, which stupidly kicks off on New Year’s Eve. That’s one.

Who would that second team be? Well, there are two fairly strong possibilities. If the B1G is going to get a second team into the playoff, it would likely be Wisconsin or Michigan State. Let’s take a look at how this could happen.

Wisconsin: Despite having a ridiculously easy schedule in 2015—after that first game, that is—the main problem the Badgers would have getting into the playoff is recency bias. Wisconsin would only be in a position to reach the playoff if they make it to the Big Ten championship game.

If (when?) the Badgers reach the conference title game, they would need to either win it (and remember, this whole discussion pre-supposes an Ohio State appearance in the CFP) or lose a very close game, possibly with some kind of extenuating circumstance, like a blown call or some weird turnover—something to make the voters give them the benefit of the doubt and not move on to another top team. Losing late is a tough way to get in. If you’re going to lose, be like the 2014 Buckeyes and lose early.

Michigan State: Sparty’s game against Ohio State also comes late in the season this year (Nov. 21—just a week before The Game). So recency bias again could come into play with the committee. However, if Michigan State puts together a very impressive season and its only loss comes to a presumed No. 1 Ohio State on the road, they could still get in.

Like the Wisconsin scenario above, Sparty would likely need to play a very close game in Columbus and perhaps be victimized by a curious officiating decision, a missed field goal or an untimely turnover. This would garner sympathy from the committee and might net them a shot in the final four.

But if either of those teams get into the CFP with Ohio State, would we want this?

Certainly Jim Delany would want it. It would paint the conference in a very good light and that could only help with recruiting, hopefully having a trickle-down effect to the schools that are currently underperforming on the recruiting trail. The revenue and publicity are obviously positives. If Ohio State were No. 1, the second B1G school would likely come in at No. 4, meaning they would probably end up having a rematch only weeks after having squared off the first time.

Rematches are funny things in college football. A few years ago, in 2011, LSU went into Tuscaloosa and won 9-6 on Alabama’s home field. Eight weeks later, the two teams met again in New Orleans and the Tigers couldn’t cross midfield, losing 21-0. If you need an example from Ohio State’s past, the 1975 Buckeyes went to UCLA and beat the Bruins by three touchdowns on their own field. A couple of months later, UCLA beat No. 1 Ohio State 23-10 in the Rose Bowl to deny the good guys a national championship.

So no, I don’t think we want that second Big Ten team in the CFP with us. Revenge games are a thing. Teams get up mentally and emotionally in a big game against a team that has bested them earlier in the season. The match-up eliminates the strategic game planning of the initial encounter and the rematch becomes more about fixing whatever weaknesses the other team exposed the first time around. That makes it difficult to beat a quality opponent twice in a season.

The likelihood is that the Big Ten would not get a second team into the CFP this year unless the other power conferences turn out champions with multiple losses and finish with a great deal of parity in the final standings.

But if the B1G pulled it off, it would probably not be pleasant to face a hungry Michigan State or Wisconsin team on New Year’s Eve.

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