Beyond the Hashes: Michigan

By Chad Peltier on December 1, 2013 at 12:30p
14 Comments
Winning the game on El Guapo's shoulders.

Well that was just like the statistics predicted, right? So the two images we definitely expected to see on our TV screens during The Game did happen: we saw Devin Gardner flat on his back, and we saw El Guapo flexing in the end zone. 

However, almost everything else was different – Michigan's pass protection, Borges' gameplan, the Buckeye offensive gameplan – but maybe that really is just how rivalry games are. 

All of our attempts at making data-driven predictions are at least loosely reliant on the "strategy" variable being held constant – especially when we use numbers at the team level. When many factors get altered at once, like starting personnel, new plays, and a coherent strategy, then it's much more difficult to make accurate predictions.

Or it's all totally random because this is college football. Oh well, go Buckeyes, 24-0, and on to the next one. 

Keep Chuggin Along

Although Herman and Meyer eschewed the early quick perimeter passing game to set up the inside run game (and then play action passing), it might have been because Herman could have called 60 straight inside zone runs and had 65% running back efficiency and 40 points. That will not be the case next week against Michigan State. 

The gameplan was almost neo-2012, focused on deep passes off of play action, Hyde inside, and Braxton running. Without the bevy of short perimeter passes, Braxton's completion percentage dipped below 50% (to 40%, but who's counting), but most efficiency metrics were unaffected:

  PPP YPP YPA PppO RED ZOne TD% EX. Plays
Ohio State Offense .689 12.5 8.62 3.82 100% 11
  • In fact, Braxton's yards per attempt passing (8.9) were only .7 yards less than Devin Gardner's, despite the 318 total yardage difference. It wasn't Braxton's best day throwing the ball, but part of the low completion percentage was due to the strategy. Further, Gardner threw three times as many passes as Braxton, but with similar efficiency. 
  • With only 61 total plays, the Buckeyes had an extremely high points per play, especially with a fumble and an interception ending two drives. Only one three-and-out helped this number. 
  • This week I added points per possession (PPPO) to my list of metrics. PPPO is yet another measure of efficiency, with the most efficient offense obviously scoring seven points every time they touch the ball. This measure is nice because it values teams that score on long drives and teams that score on quick, explosive plays equally. 3.82 is the median PPPO for the Buckeyes this season. I'm interested to see what you all think, but PPPO seems to capture my perception of the team too, since it is based on possessions and points instead of plays and total yards. 
  • It's about time to discuss where Hyde's year ranks in terms of other legendary Buckeye running backs. With seven straight 100 yard performances, the most rushing yards ever against Michigan (226, breaking Beanie's 222), and a 74% RBSR, Guapo should be up there. 
  • Oh, and how about that offensive line? Even without senior Marcus Hall for most of the game, the line willed Hyde forward for at least four yards per snap in the second half. Maybe we can breathe a little easier for next year knowing that some of the backup offensive linemen are getting valuable playing time. 
  • I don't want to mention it, but Hyde also had his third carry for a loss yesterday (a -3 yard run at the beginning of the second half).
  • The offense had one of its most explosive performances of the season with eleven plays of either a 15 yard rush or a 25 yard pass. Only two possessions that contained an explosive play failed to see the end zone. 
  • Braxton had a 50% RBSR, but most of his inefficient carries happened at the beginning of the game. In fact, four of his five second-half rushes were either explosive or for a touchdown. That's incredible. 

These metrics paint a pretty good picture of the offense's performance yesterday. The offense was predicated on explosive plays through the air and on the ground, with few plays and high total yards. The points per possession numbers are extremely helpful here, however, moderating what looks like an otherwise completely dominating performance. The two 

Nothing to See Here

The defense was another story entirely. Before listing the efficiency metrics, however, I think it's worth noting that Michigan passed 45 times yesterday. Anytime there are that many passes, there will be some that go for big yards even with a stingy defense. 

  PPP YPP YPA PPPO Red zone TD % Ex. Plays PLPPO
OSU Defense .500 14.7 7.35 3.73 86% 5 7.27
Bosa excelled in his first taste of The Game, thoughThis wasn't the matchup we predicted, though
  • Michigan was 6/7 for red zone touchdowns, with the failed red zone visit a turnover on downs. That's a hard number to be happy about. If the idea was to bend and not break (which is seldom the real goal of a defense), force Michigan to drive the length of the field, and play mistake-free football, then the strategy simply didn't work because of the Wolverines' success in the redzone. 
  • The defense allowed its longest rush on the season – a 38-yarder from Deveon Smith. That was one of just five explosive plays, but many more that were barely below the 15 and 25-yard thresholds. 
  • The Wolverines had 21 more plays than the Buckeyes and were efficient, with .5 points per play and roughly the same points per possession as the Buckeyes. In that regard, yesterday was eerily reminiscent of the 2006 #1-#2 matchup (thank goodness Urban is on our side now). 
  • I added another new metric this week in "plays per possession," or PLPPO in the chart. The idea is that the goal of every defensive series is either a three-and-out or a turnover, so a defense that always forces three-and-outs will have a PLPPO of three (let me know if you can think of a better abbreviation). The Buckeyes' 7.27 isn't great, as they allowed seven (!) trips to the redzone out of just eleven total possessions. 
  • Even though the overall efficiency metrics say "meh," I think it's important to highlight the good performances yesterday. Outside of Tyvis Powell's instant-classic interception, he played a solid game with six tackles and a fumble recovery. The other hero of the defense was Michael Bennett, who recorded five tackles, 1.5 TFLs, and 1.5 sacks. Oh, and you might have heard of Ryan Shazier, despite seemingly never being mentioned by the announcers. RDS ended with 14 tackles, 1.5 TFLs, and half a sack. 

It's imperative that the Buckeyes get their third linebacker – whether it's Curtis Grant or Cam Williams – healthy and prepared for the Spartans next week. With Connor Cook throwing the ball decently and the MSU run game as strong as ever, the Buckeyes must force more punts and allow fewer trips to the red zone in order to have a shot at the national championship. 

Regardless, the Buckeyes are 24-0, won The Game in one of the best editions of the rivalry yet, and are in a position to do something truly, truly special this season. 

14 Comments

Comments

TheSpiteHouse's picture

Gotta step up the D on misdirection and screens!

buckguyfan1's picture

Very good analysis, thanks!
Not scared!

dwcbuckeye's picture

Good analysis as always.  Though I think the game was quite different than what we expected or had hoped, it was an exciting win for the bucks.  Certainly the D did not look great, but TUN appeared to execute nearly flawlessly.  The OL played the game of their lives.  They really executed and I know many want to pick on our D or the coaches (me too), but sometimes we just have to give the other team some credit.  They have talent nearly equal to us.

alust2013's picture

I was kinda mad that OSU scored their last TD so quick. Could have easily wasted another minute of game time by taking a knee or two with a 1st and goal at the 1. Try to run it in with Hyde (probably >90% success rate) and if that doesn't work, kick a chipshot FG with no time left. I thought what they did just wasn't good clock management.

...and Michigan still sucks.

BuckGnome's picture

Interesting, what was the time left on the clock, and how many TO's did the scUM have left at that point?
 

xrox's picture

Yeah, I had a flashback to the loss against Texas in the Fiesta Bowl.

BuckGnome's picture

Just watched the replay.  When the Bucks had 1st & goal there, the ball was snapped with ~2:25 on the clock, and the scUM still had two TO's. 
 
If we take 2 knees there, and then run Hyde from 3 or 4yds out, the scUM still has 1:30 or so on the clock.  If Hyde doesn't get in, the scUM have plenty of time to not only tie, but win the game.  In retrospect, I think it was the right decision to go for the TD and not get cute.

PAWEST1202's picture

While watching that last drive, I was screaming at the TV "don't score so fast" but after thinking more on it the offense just took what the defense gave them. Taking a knee to run clock just adds more variability and the potential for disaster to happen. How many times have we seen fumbled snaps, o-line mental lapses or overall foolishness derailing otherwise perfectly reasonable strategies?

ogama843's picture

I am less uncomfortable this week than I was last week. I thought we, both fans and players, were way too overconfident. The possibility of scUM stepping up never entered the conversation. I felt it could happen as it often does with scUM. Then when Mark May picked the Buckeyes I knew we may be doomed for an upset. It didnt happen, and I am very thankful for that. I think it is harder to prepare for a talented team that has under performed than a team like Michigan State. We know exactly what we are facing this week, and just like earlier in the season, the defensive backfield woes will be ironed out during practice this week. UFM will make sure of that. Go Bucks! Beat scUM's big sister!!!!

Holy Buckeye!

gumtape's picture

Work needs to be done of course but for some perspective on the defense Kirby smart and nick saban gave up a ton of points to an overrated Texas a&m and also lost to auburn. They are considered the best in the business. Keep winning fellas.

just another psycho, irrational, delusional Ohio St fan

Seattle Linga's picture

Bart Scott and I Can't Wait for next week.

Hovenaut's picture

It ain't always pretty, but that's two in a row now over them.....and 24 straight overall.

With a chance to go 25-0 and win a B1G championship.

"Success...it's what you do with what you got" - Woody Hayes

aabuckeye's picture

I think the Hyde's fumble changed the game. If no fumble, we would've scored and been up two touchdowns again certainly being much more demoralizing for M and a lot more pressure on their offense. After the fumble it was tied up again and renewed their hope. Without that turnover, we would've won by a touchdown or two. Yeah, I know: woulda, shoulda, coulda... Great game. Exciting win.

Spider1944's picture

AaBuckeye, I thought when we went up 35-21 we just needed one stop. We go up 42-21 and Michigan has to abandon play action and up the tempo. Unfortunately our D was not up to the task. Not sure why. But IMO it has to be fixed and fast. 
GO BUCKS!!! Bring on the Spartans!! 

"There are 3 things that can happen and 2 of them are bad" - the Curse of Woody Hayes