CBS' Simulated BCS Rankings

By DJ Byrnes on October 7, 2013 at 11:41a
88 Comments
Fuck. This.

Granted this is only a simulation, but these are the fruits of a schedule that simply isn't respected by national pundits. Given Ohio State's schedule leading up to the Michigan game, it's not going to change, either. (This could force Buckeyes fans to hope Michigan is undefeated coming into The Game.) If you need me, I'll be outside puking in the dumpster.


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Chief B1G Dump's picture

Who didnt see this coming?  I would have guessed that we'll be the last of the major unbeatens rankings-wise.  
Doesn't really matter at this point.  All we can do is handle our own business and the the rest settle itself.

cplunk's picture

It's the Sagarin computer rankings that kill us.
The truth remains unchanged though- winning out is not enough for us. Two things have to happen:
1) We have to win out
2) Clemson, Stanford, Oregon, and Florida State all have to lose. And not just to each other. 
If two of Bama, Oregon, Clemson, Stanford, and Florida State are undefeated, we will NOT be in. FSU will jump us if they beat Clemson.
It could be argued that even if Bama loses they (or Georgia) would still be in ahead of us.
There is a lot of season left, so I'm not overly concerned right now, but I have tempered my expectations for the year. The chances of us getting in the title game are fairly slim right now. Hopefully some losses will shake things up.
 
 
 

luckynewman13's picture

Why are Buckeye fans buying into UGA now? They just got taken to overtime by an atrocious Tennessee team.

cplunk's picture

I don't buy in. I don't think they are better than us.
However, if they go undefeated the rest the season and beat Alabama in the SEC championship, I guarantee both the computers and the poll voters will think they are better than us.

Run_Fido_Run's picture

But that's another low probability scenario: UGA winning out v. Mizz, @Vandy, FLA, @Aub, Kent, @G Tech, SEC West winner. I ran some very quick and dirty - very "unscientific" - numbers and figure the odds of UGA winning out are no better then 10 percent and that's probably generous.

buckifishr's picture

Given their recent rash of injuries, I am not sure the Bulldogs will be in the discussion much longer.

BME_Buckeye's picture

As buckeye fans say, next man up or in their case, next Dawg up. Their players have time to recover, and who knows the extent of their depth at RB and other positions. Their scedule sets up perfect for them if they win TWLOCP.

Look closely, because the closer you think you are, the less you will actually see.

 

buckifishr's picture

TWLOCP, or as Karen Holbrook would say, absolute drunken orgies

Oyster's picture

From Wikipedia:  While on an interview at Florida Gulf Coast University, Holbrook was quoted as saying about Ohio State, "When you win a game, you riot. When you lose a game, you riot. When spring comes, you riot. African-American Heritage Festival weekend, you riot." 
 
I never understood why people never liked her...
 
 

"Scrolling hurts my finger"

(and FitzBuck was clearly the winner)

BME_Buckeye's picture

Lol. You win the thread. +1

Look closely, because the closer you think you are, the less you will actually see.

 

Buckeye_Mafia's picture

UGA was also with 3 or 4 starters. Including Gurley and their best linebacker...just saying...

"At critical moments throughout the season, we learned about the character of this football team.  This was a team of true character, of true resilience." -- President Barack Obama

Run_Fido_Run's picture

The chances of us getting in the title game are fairly slim right now.

If Ohio State goes undefeated this year, the chances that they'll be in the BCS NCG are very good. That's because, if they are 13-0, the chances that two other "power" programs are also undefeated would be fairly slim. Maybe you don't like the chances of Ohio State going undefeated, but if you do . . .
FSU plays Clemson and Stanford plays Oregon. Obviously, that means - right off the bat - that only two of those four teams can possibly go undefeated. Well, hypothetically, even if the two survivors were - on average- 90 percent likely to win each of their other 14 combined games (including conf champ game), which is a pretty damn generous guess, the odds they'd both go undefeated would be about 22 percent.
In reality, the odds are probably considerably lower. For example, Stanford plays @Utah, UCLA, @Ore St, @USC, Cal, and ND in addition to hosting Oregon. If they go undefeated against that schedule, they'll deserve to be selected ahead of Ohio State. But I ain't too worried about it happening.

AndyVance's picture

You're absolutely right about the Sagrin thing, and it really burns my biscuits: While Sagrin has Oregon & Albama as #1 and #2, respectively, do you know who he has at #3?
... Baylor.
Yes, I realize that they score a million points a game, but they haven't played ANY.ONE.AT.ALL. yet in the season, and they're playing Oklahoma, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State as their three toughest games. Yawn.
I don't want to disrespect Art Briles and the Bears, but if you're going to rank Baylor as #3, how in the name of all things holy can you say Ohio State is only good enough for #14???

wside buck's picture

The highest and lowest computer rankings are dropped for each team so the Sagarin ranking doesn't really hurt much.

TennesseeBuckeye's picture

Here's hoping Virginia Tech beats FSU/Clemson winner, I suppose we can hope Clemson loses to GT or South Carolina and FSU loses to Miami (Fl) or Florida. Oregon/Stanford looks like an undefeated team. Hoping LSU drops Alabama. Georgia could lose to Mo this week or maybe Florida later down the road. A 2 lose eastern SEC team beating 1 loss Alabama would be nice. We'll know a lot on our next break when LSU plays at Alabama and Oregon is at Stanford on Nov 7. FSU plays Clemson Oct 19, one ,ore team with a loss.

I may not be able to outsmart too many people, but I can outwork 'em.
Woody Hayes

harleymanjax's picture

Clemson and FSU are always good for one shockingly bad loss per year, I'm not worried about them. My heart says OSU vs BAMA in the title game, but my brain says DUCKS vs BAMA, and OSU vs STANFORD in the Rose Bowl..........

"Because I couldn't go for 3"

lippertini's picture

If we win out, I'm happy with either scenario, though I'd obviously prefer one over the other.  Another undefeated season, another victory over Michigan, another BCS bowl win, another fantastic recruiting class, another big run next year (ad infinitum).

brandonbauer87's picture

I know some of the computer rankings aren't released yet, so i don't know how much besides what's shown is figured into this poll.  If it's only the shown criteria, the math must have been done at Alabama.  Oregon should be a clear number one or two.

wside buck's picture

All of the computer polls are available except Wolfe.

ExpatBuckeye's picture

Historically, it's been very unusual to have more than two undefeated teams.  And only once has an undefeated team from a legitimate BCS AQ conference been snubbed -- Auburn in 2004.

droessl's picture

There's a lot of time left for everyone else to lose. Oregon plays Washington this week, and you never know, Bama could lose to Kentucky since the SEC has like, the best 18 teams in the country

ChazBuckeye's picture

This is what I've been screaming since before the season.  We have to go unbeaten and the mighty SEC has to have at least two losses for the best team in that conference.  If not, OSU will not get in.  Then we have to hope for upsets and what not for the other conferences. 
 Personally I'm not feeling happy with what may happen if this is the final results below and I may be out back puking too:
1st-Oregon unbeaten unless Stanford beats them or vica versa.
2nd-Bama with one loss coming off a SEC championship win...
3rd-OSU with a 13-0 freaking record on the outside looking in!  Unless...TTUN ends up unbeaten.  That could change things if we play them again.  And I'll be 100% honest with all of you, we have to pray for this now.  I tried to tell you all before during the off season, now it's a reality!  Pray for the sun and blue every week no matter how tough it is folks...we need them to be good.
*Don't sleep on Clemson or FSU either.  One of them goes unbeaten and I still see us out of the NC game.
Lots of games before now and then...gotta hope for that as well.  May be the SEC beats up on each other and the ACC and Pac12 has the same happen...but I'd doubt it at this point.

Some people think we’re the hunted.I don’t feel that way at all.We’re the hunter.Everybody wants an angry football team.Everybody wants a team on edge and a hungry team.If you’re a hunter,that usually equates to being hungry.

d1145fresh's picture

I really think the biggest key is for Alabama to lose a regular season game. That is going to throw the entire system for a loop. A weird slip by them would have to drop them below the undefeated teams and then 2 of the other undefeateds will have to lose (they play other undefeated teams).

buckifishr's picture

An SEC team losing does not necessarily drop them below all of the undefeated teams from other conferences.  We better hope Bama is the last to lose if we want to jump them. 

bigbadbuck's picture

The other thing that may help the Buckeyes is the fact we are likely to be playing a ranked team in the championship game (assuming that between now and then the sky doesnt fall)

Gentlemen, you can't fight in here, its a war room

cplunk's picture

Clemson/Florida State and Oregon/Stanford will be playing a ranked team in their championship, too. And their opponent may be higher ranked than ours.

bigbadbuck's picture

But Since Clemson and Florida State play during the regular season  both teams may end up as 1 loss teams, same with Stanford and Oregon

Gentlemen, you can't fight in here, its a war room

ih8rolltyde's picture

Stanford/Oregon and FSU/Clemson reside in the same divisions of their conferences, so there is no chance for a conference title game rematch in either case.

****igan smells like old water that hot dogs were boiled in.  FACT

wojodta's picture

I just don't see the ACC champ passing OSU even if they're undefeated. ACC vs. B1G is a wash to me. If OSU goes undefeated back-to-back I think that gives them an edge over an undefeated ACC champ.

cplunk's picture

Clemson will pass us after this upcoming week, and they're not even the champ yet. Heck, if the computer simulation above is right then they are already past us, and Florida State is much closer to us in the BCS than we are to the top four.
If FSU wins the ACC they will between now and then beat Clemson (who is ranked higher than us) and Florida. They'll jump us when they beat Clemson. They won't even have to wait for the ACC championshiip.
We're #14 in the computers. Number 14. The question isn't whether an ACC champ will jump us, it is whether we can manage to jump them.

wojodta's picture

I guess I'm looking at what I think should happen not necessarily what will happen. It's total BS if you go undefeated back-to-back in a major conference and can't get in the title game. I don't care if the B1G is a little weak. If you're 25-0 you should be in the title game no questions asked, even over a one loss SEC champ.

cplunk's picture

I completely agree. 
There is still much season left, so I'm not in despair. I have prepared myself, though, for the possibility of injustice.

BME_Buckeye's picture

If either beats a solid SEC team with one or two losses at their place, they deserve to jump us.

Look closely, because the closer you think you are, the less you will actually see.

 

CC's picture

Are you saying the SEC team has one or two losses or the ACC team has one or two losses?

vitaminB's picture

ACC has Clemson, Florida St and Miami, the ACC is better than the B1G right now, and it's not close.  If Clemson or Florida St is undefeated they will jump us.  Miami might as well, with their win over Florida.

Buckeye Chuck's picture

A lot of people saw that Florida game, and as a result I seriously doubt anyone will give Miami any sort of bonus for winning it. It was an artistic disaster.
I am among those who still thinks it's way too early to worry about any of this, given the unlikelihood of there being more than 2 undefeated teams when it's all said and done. I sense there's some anger at our ranking, but there are still 17 undefeated teams in FBS, and we're rated fifth. That's not too bad.

The most "loud mouth, disrespect" poster on 11W.

rkylet83's picture

Alabama lose to LSU.  
Oregon lose to Washington
Clemson lose to Florida State
Stanford lose to Oregon
Florida State lose to Miami.
If these losses happen we should be at worst #2.
 

Buckeye-in-DC's picture

Other scenarios/games that could also help: 
Clemson loses @ South Carolina
FSU loses @ Florida
Stanford loses to UCLA

One Bad Buckeye's picture

If we go undefeated and get left out of the Meh National Championship Game.....I feel really bad for whoever draws us in the bowl game.  

"I'm One Bad Buckeye, and I approve this message."

Jeeves's picture

Which would likely be Stanford, UCLA, Oregon or Washington. Pac is the best conference this year and no matter who we would draw it would be awfully tough.

twalsh's picture

I wish we had the playoff this year!!
Go Bucks!!

jedkat's picture

"Can we please stop the message board fighting? I really can't stand the message board fighting..."

"No. You're an idiot, and your posts are terrible."

cinserious's picture

Looks like Billy has some anger management issues. Time out for you! And somebody needs to red-flag that kid now before he becomes a threat to society.

One day I will valiantly become a political prisoner of 11W jail.

jthiel09's picture

Lot's of football left with top teams playing big games: Bama vs. LSU, Oregon vs. Huskies, Stanford vs. Oregon, Clemson vs. FSU, etc........
Our beloved Buckeyes can only control what we can control, our own games every week. Let's hope this BYE week rests everyone up, gives our defense a chance to right the ship and lock down our coverages, Braxton get fully healthy and ready for the final stretch ... and will some national media outlet give Joey Bosa some damn coverage?
Kids a monster ... and as we learned yesterday from a great blog post on here ... a Jedi Knight.

JT

elitesmithie's picture

Remember when West Virginia lost to a terrible Pitt team? I'd expect a few of those this year.

BuckeyeLurker0509's picture

Clemson & Stanford will lose.
Alabama will lose to LSU.
& We'll be ok.

hodge's picture

Need Wisconsin, Northwestern, and Michigan to win every game except for the ones when they play each other; and when that happens we need either NW or UM to make it out unscathed.  I'd take UM, preferably: an undefeated record in late November will easily slot them in the top ten (along with making people forget about their shitty performances against Akron and UCONN) going into The Game.  Two straight victories over a previously-undefeated team will help solidify our standing over any one-loss teams, and just might slot us ahead of the ACC champ (though probably not Clemson, provided Georgia looks good all season).

Hovenaut's picture

If Ohio State finishes 13-0, that's 25-0.

That's nothing to whiff at, should not be dismissed.

Buckeyebrowny919's picture

just....win. Everything will work itself out.

To give anything less than your best, is to sacrifice the gift - Steve Prefontaine

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