CBS' Simulated BCS Rankings

October 7, 2013 at 11:41a    by DJ Byrnes    
88 Comments
Fuck. This.

Granted this is only a simulation, but these are the fruits of a schedule that simply isn't respected by national pundits. Given Ohio State's schedule leading up to the Michigan game, it's not going to change, either. (This could force Buckeyes fans to hope Michigan is undefeated coming into The Game.) If you need me, I'll be outside puking in the dumpster.


Comments

Chief B1G Dump's picture

Who didnt see this coming?  I would have guessed that we'll be the last of the major unbeatens rankings-wise.  
Doesn't really matter at this point.  All we can do is handle our own business and the the rest settle itself.

cplunk's picture

It's the Sagarin computer rankings that kill us.
The truth remains unchanged though- winning out is not enough for us. Two things have to happen:
1) We have to win out
2) Clemson, Stanford, Oregon, and Florida State all have to lose. And not just to each other. 
If two of Bama, Oregon, Clemson, Stanford, and Florida State are undefeated, we will NOT be in. FSU will jump us if they beat Clemson.
It could be argued that even if Bama loses they (or Georgia) would still be in ahead of us.
There is a lot of season left, so I'm not overly concerned right now, but I have tempered my expectations for the year. The chances of us getting in the title game are fairly slim right now. Hopefully some losses will shake things up.
 
 
 

luckynewman13's picture

Why are Buckeye fans buying into UGA now? They just got taken to overtime by an atrocious Tennessee team.

cplunk's picture

I don't buy in. I don't think they are better than us.
However, if they go undefeated the rest the season and beat Alabama in the SEC championship, I guarantee both the computers and the poll voters will think they are better than us.

Run_Fido_Run's picture

But that's another low probability scenario: UGA winning out v. Mizz, @Vandy, FLA, @Aub, Kent, @G Tech, SEC West winner. I ran some very quick and dirty - very "unscientific" - numbers and figure the odds of UGA winning out are no better then 10 percent and that's probably generous.

buckifishr's picture

Given their recent rash of injuries, I am not sure the Bulldogs will be in the discussion much longer.

BME_Buckeye's picture

As buckeye fans say, next man up or in their case, next Dawg up. Their players have time to recover, and who knows the extent of their depth at RB and other positions. Their scedule sets up perfect for them if they win TWLOCP.

Look closely, because the closer you think you are, the less you will actually see.

 

buckifishr's picture

TWLOCP, or as Karen Holbrook would say, absolute drunken orgies

Oyster's picture

From Wikipedia:  While on an interview at Florida Gulf Coast University, Holbrook was quoted as saying about Ohio State, "When you win a game, you riot. When you lose a game, you riot. When spring comes, you riot. African-American Heritage Festival weekend, you riot." 
 
I never understood why people never liked her...
 
 

May you R.I.P. Otsego, but know this. Gaylord Rocks!

BME_Buckeye's picture

Lol. You win the thread. +1

Look closely, because the closer you think you are, the less you will actually see.

 

Buckeye_Mafia's picture

UGA was also with 3 or 4 starters. Including Gurley and their best linebacker...just saying...

Adolphus Washington is half grizzly bear and half dragon | Noah Spence kills quarterbacks, just to watch them die.

Run_Fido_Run's picture

The chances of us getting in the title game are fairly slim right now.

If Ohio State goes undefeated this year, the chances that they'll be in the BCS NCG are very good. That's because, if they are 13-0, the chances that two other "power" programs are also undefeated would be fairly slim. Maybe you don't like the chances of Ohio State going undefeated, but if you do . . .
FSU plays Clemson and Stanford plays Oregon. Obviously, that means - right off the bat - that only two of those four teams can possibly go undefeated. Well, hypothetically, even if the two survivors were - on average- 90 percent likely to win each of their other 14 combined games (including conf champ game), which is a pretty damn generous guess, the odds they'd both go undefeated would be about 22 percent.
In reality, the odds are probably considerably lower. For example, Stanford plays @Utah, UCLA, @Ore St, @USC, Cal, and ND in addition to hosting Oregon. If they go undefeated against that schedule, they'll deserve to be selected ahead of Ohio State. But I ain't too worried about it happening.

AndyVance's picture

You're absolutely right about the Sagrin thing, and it really burns my biscuits: While Sagrin has Oregon & Albama as #1 and #2, respectively, do you know who he has at #3?
... Baylor.
Yes, I realize that they score a million points a game, but they haven't played ANY.ONE.AT.ALL. yet in the season, and they're playing Oklahoma, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State as their three toughest games. Yawn.
I don't want to disrespect Art Briles and the Bears, but if you're going to rank Baylor as #3, how in the name of all things holy can you say Ohio State is only good enough for #14???

wside buck's picture

The highest and lowest computer rankings are dropped for each team so the Sagarin ranking doesn't really hurt much.

TennesseeBuckeye's picture

Here's hoping Virginia Tech beats FSU/Clemson winner, I suppose we can hope Clemson loses to GT or South Carolina and FSU loses to Miami (Fl) or Florida. Oregon/Stanford looks like an undefeated team. Hoping LSU drops Alabama. Georgia could lose to Mo this week or maybe Florida later down the road. A 2 lose eastern SEC team beating 1 loss Alabama would be nice. We'll know a lot on our next break when LSU plays at Alabama and Oregon is at Stanford on Nov 7. FSU plays Clemson Oct 19, one ,ore team with a loss.

I may not be able to outsmart too many people, but I can outwork 'em.
Woody Hayes

harleymanjax's picture

Clemson and FSU are always good for one shockingly bad loss per year, I'm not worried about them. My heart says OSU vs BAMA in the title game, but my brain says DUCKS vs BAMA, and OSU vs STANFORD in the Rose Bowl..........

"Because I couldn't go for 3"

lippertini's picture

If we win out, I'm happy with either scenario, though I'd obviously prefer one over the other.  Another undefeated season, another victory over Michigan, another BCS bowl win, another fantastic recruiting class, another big run next year (ad infinitum).

brandonbauer87's picture

I know some of the computer rankings aren't released yet, so i don't know how much besides what's shown is figured into this poll.  If it's only the shown criteria, the math must have been done at Alabama.  Oregon should be a clear number one or two.

wside buck's picture

All of the computer polls are available except Wolfe.

ExpatBuckeye's picture

Historically, it's been very unusual to have more than two undefeated teams.  And only once has an undefeated team from a legitimate BCS AQ conference been snubbed -- Auburn in 2004.

droessl's picture

There's a lot of time left for everyone else to lose. Oregon plays Washington this week, and you never know, Bama could lose to Kentucky since the SEC has like, the best 18 teams in the country

ChazBuckeye's picture

This is what I've been screaming since before the season.  We have to go unbeaten and the mighty SEC has to have at least two losses for the best team in that conference.  If not, OSU will not get in.  Then we have to hope for upsets and what not for the other conferences. 
 Personally I'm not feeling happy with what may happen if this is the final results below and I may be out back puking too:
1st-Oregon unbeaten unless Stanford beats them or vica versa.
2nd-Bama with one loss coming off a SEC championship win...
3rd-OSU with a 13-0 freaking record on the outside looking in!  Unless...TTUN ends up unbeaten.  That could change things if we play them again.  And I'll be 100% honest with all of you, we have to pray for this now.  I tried to tell you all before during the off season, now it's a reality!  Pray for the sun and blue every week no matter how tough it is folks...we need them to be good.
*Don't sleep on Clemson or FSU either.  One of them goes unbeaten and I still see us out of the NC game.
Lots of games before now and then...gotta hope for that as well.  May be the SEC beats up on each other and the ACC and Pac12 has the same happen...but I'd doubt it at this point.

Some people think we’re the hunted.I don’t feel that way at all.We’re the hunter.Everybody wants an angry football team.Everybody wants a team on edge and a hungry team.If you’re a hunter,that usually equates to being hungry.

d1145fresh's picture

I really think the biggest key is for Alabama to lose a regular season game. That is going to throw the entire system for a loop. A weird slip by them would have to drop them below the undefeated teams and then 2 of the other undefeateds will have to lose (they play other undefeated teams).

buckifishr's picture

An SEC team losing does not necessarily drop them below all of the undefeated teams from other conferences.  We better hope Bama is the last to lose if we want to jump them. 

bigbadbuck's picture

The other thing that may help the Buckeyes is the fact we are likely to be playing a ranked team in the championship game (assuming that between now and then the sky doesnt fall)

cplunk's picture

Clemson/Florida State and Oregon/Stanford will be playing a ranked team in their championship, too. And their opponent may be higher ranked than ours.

bigbadbuck's picture

But Since Clemson and Florida State play during the regular season  both teams may end up as 1 loss teams, same with Stanford and Oregon

ih8rolltyde's picture

Stanford/Oregon and FSU/Clemson reside in the same divisions of their conferences, so there is no chance for a conference title game rematch in either case.

****igan smells like old water that hot dogs were boiled in.  FACT

wojodta's picture

I just don't see the ACC champ passing OSU even if they're undefeated. ACC vs. B1G is a wash to me. If OSU goes undefeated back-to-back I think that gives them an edge over an undefeated ACC champ.

cplunk's picture

Clemson will pass us after this upcoming week, and they're not even the champ yet. Heck, if the computer simulation above is right then they are already past us, and Florida State is much closer to us in the BCS than we are to the top four.
If FSU wins the ACC they will between now and then beat Clemson (who is ranked higher than us) and Florida. They'll jump us when they beat Clemson. They won't even have to wait for the ACC championshiip.
We're #14 in the computers. Number 14. The question isn't whether an ACC champ will jump us, it is whether we can manage to jump them.

wojodta's picture

I guess I'm looking at what I think should happen not necessarily what will happen. It's total BS if you go undefeated back-to-back in a major conference and can't get in the title game. I don't care if the B1G is a little weak. If you're 25-0 you should be in the title game no questions asked, even over a one loss SEC champ.

cplunk's picture

I completely agree. 
There is still much season left, so I'm not in despair. I have prepared myself, though, for the possibility of injustice.

BME_Buckeye's picture

If either beats a solid SEC team with one or two losses at their place, they deserve to jump us.

Look closely, because the closer you think you are, the less you will actually see.

 

CC's picture

Are you saying the SEC team has one or two losses or the ACC team has one or two losses?

vitaminB's picture

ACC has Clemson, Florida St and Miami, the ACC is better than the B1G right now, and it's not close.  If Clemson or Florida St is undefeated they will jump us.  Miami might as well, with their win over Florida.

Buckeye Chuck's picture

A lot of people saw that Florida game, and as a result I seriously doubt anyone will give Miami any sort of bonus for winning it. It was an artistic disaster.
I am among those who still thinks it's way too early to worry about any of this, given the unlikelihood of there being more than 2 undefeated teams when it's all said and done. I sense there's some anger at our ranking, but there are still 17 undefeated teams in FBS, and we're rated fifth. That's not too bad.

The most "loud mouth, disrespect" poster on 11W.

rkylet83's picture

Alabama lose to LSU.  
Oregon lose to Washington
Clemson lose to Florida State
Stanford lose to Oregon
Florida State lose to Miami.
If these losses happen we should be at worst #2.
 

Buckeye-in-DC's picture

Other scenarios/games that could also help: 
Clemson loses @ South Carolina
FSU loses @ Florida
Stanford loses to UCLA

One Bad Buckeye's picture

If we go undefeated and get left out of the Meh National Championship Game.....I feel really bad for whoever draws us in the bowl game.  

"I'm One Bad Buckeye, and I approve this message."

Jeeves's picture

Which would likely be Stanford, UCLA, Oregon or Washington. Pac is the best conference this year and no matter who we would draw it would be awfully tough.

twalsh's picture

I wish we had the playoff this year!!
Go Bucks!!

jedkat's picture

"I was tired of trying to work my way around the back, so I just ran him over"

~ Joey Bosa

cinserious's picture

Looks like Billy has some anger management issues. Time out for you! And somebody needs to red-flag that kid now before he becomes a threat to society.

Life's daily struggle is choosing between saying F--ck-it, or soldiering on with your responsibilities.  

jthiel09's picture

Lot's of football left with top teams playing big games: Bama vs. LSU, Oregon vs. Huskies, Stanford vs. Oregon, Clemson vs. FSU, etc........
Our beloved Buckeyes can only control what we can control, our own games every week. Let's hope this BYE week rests everyone up, gives our defense a chance to right the ship and lock down our coverages, Braxton get fully healthy and ready for the final stretch ... and will some national media outlet give Joey Bosa some damn coverage?
Kids a monster ... and as we learned yesterday from a great blog post on here ... a Jedi Knight.

JT

elitesmithie's picture

Remember when West Virginia lost to a terrible Pitt team? I'd expect a few of those this year.

BuckeyeLurker0509's picture

Clemson & Stanford will lose.
Alabama will lose to LSU.
& We'll be ok.

hodge's picture

Need Wisconsin, Northwestern, and Michigan to win every game except for the ones when they play each other; and when that happens we need either NW or UM to make it out unscathed.  I'd take UM, preferably: an undefeated record in late November will easily slot them in the top ten (along with making people forget about their shitty performances against Akron and UCONN) going into The Game.  Two straight victories over a previously-undefeated team will help solidify our standing over any one-loss teams, and just might slot us ahead of the ACC champ (though probably not Clemson, provided Georgia looks good all season).

Hovenaut's picture

If Ohio State finishes 13-0, that's 25-0.

That's nothing to whiff at, should not be dismissed.

Buckeyebrowny919's picture

just....win. Everything will work itself out.

To give anything less than your best, is to sacrifice the gift - Steve Prefontaine

BTBuckeye's picture

We need TTUN to be undefeated going into the last week ::barf::
I don't think they will be though. Definitely could use WIS and NW to win out or only drop 1 more each.
 

OldColumbusTown's picture

It would probably actually be better for NW to win out, including beating Michigan, in order for a rematch with Ohio State in the B1G championship game.  Michigan going unbeaten would be great, but that means Ohio State would beat them twice in a row, and you know they would fall further in the rankings with two defeats in two weeks.
IF Michigan can win out (minus NW), they will still be a top 10-15 team when OSU faces them.  Also, NW would have beaten Wisconsin, Nebraska, Michigan, and Michigan State, so they would probably be a top 10 team.
Best case scenario, in my opinion, is NW win out, Wisconsin win out (minus NW matchup), and Michigan win out (minus NW matchup).  That would leave OSU with potentially two road wins over top 10 opponents, and another over a probable top 15-20 opponent, not to mention another top 10-15 win in the B1G championship game.

kevinfrenchfry's picture

This is a perfect post, a likely scenario, laid out descriptively yet simplistically, and it even gave me a jolt of optimism, that last sentence has a nice ring to it.

Matt F's picture

I completely agree with the NW winning out argument. Michigan's story was already written against Akron and UCONN - to the voters they're an average team in a poor conference. NW is the better story and the better win, so we should be pulling for them to meet us again in the B1G ship.

Paul's picture

I agree that we have to win out. But I'd like to offer an alternate opinion. You have to consider the financial aspect of this. This is big business and Ohio State generates bigdollars. If Alabama and Ohio State are unbeaten this will generate HUGE ratings and there is no way the Buckeyes will be left out. At this point I'd only be concerned about winning, our defense gelling, and PLEASE, no more crucial injuries at key positions.

There are winners and there are losers, and then there are "THE OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY"

FOOTBALL BUCKEYES!

ScarletNGrey01's picture

I don't know if Nate Silver could understand the BCS ranking algorithm.  Can't wait for the four team playoffs next season, and hopefully it will expand to eight teams later on down the pike.

The will to win is not as important as the will to prepare to win. -- Woody Hayes

Jeeves's picture

Please, please no 8 teams. Conference championship games should be the default first round of playoffs.

BTBuckeye's picture

Great point. I love how the Playoff just eliminates all this BS and lets the teams play head-to-head.
 

BenW's picture

Have faith that other teams will lose everyone, we just have to win ours. 
Last year week 7 there were 12 undefeated teams ranked by the AP.
2011 and 2010 there were 13. 
Teams are going to lose to teams they shouldn't lose to in conference play, we just need to make sure we aren't one of them. 
 
 

BuddhaBuck's picture

Wake me up if this is an issue on December 1.
Urban's head will explode if (t)his team is undefeated and left out of the Championship game.

Don't text while driving.

d5k's picture

Seems about right, although I think all of those top 6 are pretty level in terms of on the field ability.  Are we sure CBS is using the right (BCS) version of the computers?  To have Baylor that high you would think would require the margin of victory enabled versions as opposed to the de-clawed glorified SOS models.
Edited: Looks like only Sagarin's is wrong and OSU is 8.3 overall in computer average.  Every other computer has Baylor outside the top 10.

wside buck's picture

Using the Massey data for odds of winning here are the chances that the following teams finish the season undefeated not counting conference championship games.
Alabama: 69.12%
Clemson: 18.89%
Stanford: 8.16%
Oregon: 30.62%
Florida State: 20.09%
Ohio State: 37.12%

Deadly Nuts's picture

IMO we have a better chance of going undefeated in the regular season than Bama...

LEBRON

wside buck's picture

I agree. I was just using his data as a reference point using an objective measure. Then again his data might be garbage.

d5k's picture

Our schedules are pretty comparable if you think LSU at home and Michigan on the road are similar tests.  They have @Auburn as their next toughest game while ours is probably Penn State.
For the second year (at least) in a row, Bama dodges the top 3 of the East division of the SEC.  There's definitely a schedule flaw since LSU has to play 2 of those top 3 and plays Florida every year due to the dumb "1 rivalry game" method.  Before the season you could say even if LSU was significantly better than Alabama, LSU would have a much lower chance of winning the division since they play Bama on the road and a much tougher conference schedule.

Run_Fido_Run's picture

Using Massey's projections, the odds these teams go undefeated after conference championship games might very roughly be about as follows:
Alabama: 69.12 x 0.65 = 44.93 percent
Clemson: 18.89 x 0.70 = 13.22 percent
Stanford: 8.16 x 0.55 = 4.49 percent
Oregon: 30.62 x 0.60 = 18.37 percent
FSU: 20.09 x 0.70 = 14.06 percent
Ohio State: 37.12 x 0.75 = 27.84 percent
Total projected undefeated teams approximately 1.25 teams from the above grouping (which does not include Louisville, UCLA, Oklahoma, Miami FL, etc.

d5k's picture

And you have some interdepency with Oregon and Stanford playing each other and Clemson-FSU.

Run_Fido_Run's picture

True. I'm not sure how to design the "model" in the appropriate way to account for interdependency, etc. But my instincts tell me that it's very unlikely that we'll have 3 undefeated teams out of that group, and unlikely there will be 2. Now, of course, there is the threat of a one-loss SEC champion as well as another undefeated dark horse, but I am confident that an undefeated Ohio State plays for all the marbles.

Denny's picture

Yes but what are the team's ratings in video games

Taquitos.

Chilimac419's picture

Who says Washington is better than nw or wisky ? Bama plays 2 good teams , same with Oregon ...  But on an economical standpoint , there is no way if tosu is undefeated that they will keep them out of the n c.   Because if its not about their money , they wouldn't have allowed the so- called tat 5 play.... They allowed them and after the riches were reaped , they snatched the win away ...   18-0 go bucks ... 
 
 
 
 
When they start talking poop about tosu, it's because they don't want to play us !!!!!
give ufm 4 plus weeks to prepare ... I'm scared hahah.  Go bucks 

Jonnferrell's picture

We just gotta win.  Everything else will take care of itself.  If we don't win them all, then we will just have a good season and get to beat some SEC or Pac12 team.

"I'm still hungry." --Brady Hoke

Zofinda's picture

If You're upset about this, imagine being a Louisville fan lol...

niblick's picture

lotta wasted energy worrying for nothing at this point.  With 2 weeks left in the season last year, everyone on the planet thought it was a lock for oregon and kansas state to be playing each other, then in the span of an hour they both lost.

Go Buckeyes14's picture

Would a 14-0 record and a Rose Bowl victory considered a disappointment?

extemporary08's picture

We have another jokester on our hands here...

BME_Buckeye's picture

Where is the joke in this post? Seems legit to me. 

Look closely, because the closer you think you are, the less you will actually see.

 

extemporary08's picture

An undefeated season with a Rose Bowl win, and people will STILL be dissappointed... wow. I understand the desire to win the crystal ball, but if you are really dissapointed in a team that has gone 26-0 you've got me laughin'. It's obvious though Meyer will use the lack of respect as motivation going forward if this is the case.

DatDudeSA's picture

IMO asking ttun to go undefeated is alot to ask for unless they play extremely well their novemeber schedule is brutal to say the least.

@mich st
Nebraska
@northwestern
@iowa
BUCKS

Lets just control what we can control and go undefeated. If you recall in 2007 we were 5th in the bcs in week 12 and look where we ended up. Lets just take care of business.

"fear is an obstacle to some people, but it is an illusion to me"––Michael Jordan.

socalbuckeye's picture

14-0/26-0 with Rose Bowl Victory over Stanford or Oregon = AP National Champions!

Poison nuts's picture

If, if, if, if, if, if. Sorry but fuck the ifs. They just need to win. There is almost never more than 2 undefeated teams when it's all said & done. A one loss SEC team like Bama or UGA will not be jumping OSU either. Paul Finebaum can holler all he wants about that - it won't happen. Ohio State can only win it's games. Why worry about any thing but that at this time?

"Death created time to grow the things that it would kill" - Detective Rustin Cohle.

cinserious's picture

We might be on the outside looking in at another unbeaten from a more 'respected' conference come January for the BCS championship game, but we WILL be in a BCS game against an Oregon, Alabama, Clemson, Stanford, Georgia, Florida St., etc. Whomever it may be, we will handle our business, hopefully against an SEC demon.
BTW: fuck the B1G! If the conference wasn't such a piece of crap, we wouldn't be in this predicament. I used to be a B1G supporter but can't bring myself to watch that trash anymore. Every Saturday, I find myself watching a B1G game for about five minutes just to change the channel to CBS for an SEC game.
Sorry , but the Big-Ten brand is finished, it's gone the way of the Ivy League.

Life's daily struggle is choosing between saying F--ck-it, or soldiering on with your responsibilities.  

onetwentyeight's picture

I been saying this around here for years now, and people are only now beginning to see beyond the insular ole "we'll just win the B1G & go to the Rose Bowl like our grandaddies did and everything is hunky dory" mentality which still permeates the fanbase. It's the same one which shrugged off Jimmy T's later big game failings. NO its NOT okay anymore to just win the B1G because the B1G is not the power conference it was in the 1970s. Going to the Rose Bowl isnt enough anymore. We need to win EVERY game. Including the National Championship. We need THAT mentality, always.
And when the rest of your conference mates refuse to pull their own weight there's no logical reason left for us to DRAG all that dead weight along with us. All they do is hold us back. Ask yourself, is playing in the B1G hurting our chances of winning it all? If it is, then we should DROP them in pursuit of the ultimate goal. (And yes, it is hurting us. OBVIOUSLY). 
 
Ask yourself further, when was the last time playing in the B1G was actually BENEFICIAL for us, as Ohio state? What do we continue to gain from yoking ourselves to the S*ITTY PATHETIC football fates of the likes of purdue, minnesota, and PSU? People will shriek something about "strong academics research universities consortiums etc" or "BTN Money" but c'mon. The largest public university in the richest, most powerful nation on earth is PROBABLY fine on its own. All that academic-ky cooperation stuff can continue (and Should continue) unrelated to football. And as far as BTN money goes, two words: Buckeye Network. OSU going independent really wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. Take the current schedule, chop out some B1G bottom feeders, replace with the likes of USC, ND, Texas, Miami, etc and other glamorous "big names". Sprinkle in a few SEC neutral site games as well (oh wait, they're wusses and wouldn't accept.) Voila. Much more entertaining than watching us play down to the level of a Northwestern. 

Jeeves's picture

Big Ten brand going the way of the Ivy League? As a B1G alumnus I endorse this upward movement in status.
 

Aesculus.'s picture

Can anyone explain the Saragin Rankings?  To the educated eye it looks like a pile of manure on top of a politician.  However taking a closer look, it looks even worse.  
This is part of the BCS formula and we are currently ranked #14.? what? yeah a few spots ahead of 2-3 TCU.
Highlights:
5 teams above us have loses.
3 teams above us have a weaker schedule. 
6 teams above us haven't beaten anyone in the top 30. (we are 1-0)
 
 
 
 

11/8/2014 @Michigan State aka Payback

AndyVance's picture

I've been wondering the same thing - it looks like the most convoluted set of rankings since Doug Lesmerises' AP poll ballot...

ScarletNGrey01's picture

it looks like a pile of manure on top of a politician

In the future, we'd appreciate if you would avoid being redundant.

The will to win is not as important as the will to prepare to win. -- Woody Hayes