With four weeks to go in the regular season and the year’s first College Football Playoff rankings revealed, seven Big Ten teams remain alive in the race for playoff spots.
Ohio State and Indiana continued to do exactly what they needed to do in Week 10 to keep themselves at the top of the playoff picture as the Hoosiers blew out Maryland while Ohio State dominated Penn State. USC had to come back to beat Nebraska while Michigan got a scare from Purdue, but both of them escaped with one-score wins to keep their playoff hopes flickering. Oregon and Iowa both had the week off ahead of their high-stakes clash in Iowa City this weekend, while Washington had an extra week to celebrate its win over Illinois, which kept the Huskies alive in the playoff hunt.
All of those seven teams made the initial top 25 that was released by the CFP selection committee on Tuesday night, and they make up the top seven in this week’s Big Ten Power Rankings – though not entirely in the same order.
While everyone has their own way of ranking teams, these rankings seek to measure the teams based on how they’ve performed throughout the season, taking overall records, conference records, head-to-head results, strength of schedule and scoring margin into account when comparing teams against one another.
Playoff Locks
1. Indiana (9-0, 6-0)
Wins: Old Dominion (27-14), Kennesaw State (56-9), Indiana State (73-0), Illinois (63-10), at Iowa (20-15), at Oregon (30-20), Michigan State (38-13), UCLA (56-6), Maryland (55-10)
Losses: None
Last Week: 1
CFP Rank: 2
2. Ohio State (8-0, 5-0)
Wins: Texas (14-7), Grambling State (70-0), Ohio (37-9), at Washington (24-6), Minnesota (42-3), at Illinois (34-16), at Wisconsin (34-0), Penn State (38-14)
Losses: None
Last Week: 2
CFP Rank: 1
While I don’t disagree with the College Football Playoff selection committee’s assessment that Ohio State looks like the best team in college football this year, I still believe Indiana has the best résumé in the sport. The Hoosiers have been the most dominant team in college football, outscoring their opponents by more than 35 points per game, the best mark in the country. They lead the nation in scoring offense while ranking third nationally in scoring defense. And their road win over Oregon still ranks as the Big Ten’s best victory this season, as Oregon’s No. 9 ranking in the CFP standings supports.
Either way, Ohio State and Indiana are both locks to make the CFP as long as they don’t lose multiple games in November – which would be shocking given that they have just one ranked opponent remaining between them (Ohio State’s road game at Michigan on Nov. 29). If both win out, they’ll meet in the Big Ten Championship Game with the No. 1 seed in the playoff on the line.
In Position
3. Oregon (7-1, 4-1)
Wins: Montana State (59-13), Oklahoma State (69-3), at Northwestern (34-14), Oregon State (41-7), at Penn State (30-24), at Rutgers (56-10), Wisconsin (21-7)
Losses: Indiana (30-20)
Last Week: 3
CFP Rank: 9
With its only loss this season coming against Indiana, Oregon is also in win-and-in position for the CFP. But all four of the Ducks’ remaining opponents (Iowa, Minnesota, USC and Washington) have more wins this season than any of the FBS teams Oregon has beaten this year. That leaves Oregon with a lot to prove in November, and even one more loss could bring its lack of big wins into a bubble debate. If the Ducks win all four of their November games, though, they’ll have proven they’re one of the best teams in the country and belong in the CFP without a shadow of a doubt.
Must Win Out
4. Iowa (6-2, 4-1)
Wins: Albany (34-7), UMass (47-7), at Rutgers (38-28), at Wisconsin (37-0), Penn State (25-24), Minnesota (41-3)
Losses: at Iowa State (17-14), Indiana (20-15)
Last Week: 7
CFP Rank: 20
No Big Ten team faces higher stakes this weekend than the Hawkeyes. If they beat Oregon, they’ll become a real team to watch in the CFP race, especially after demolishing Minnesota in their most recent game. A loss to the Ducks, however, would all but eliminate them from the playoff conversation.
5. USC (6-2, 4-1)
Wins: Missouri State (73-13), Georgia Southern (59-20), at Purdue (33-17), Michigan State (45-31), Michigan (31-13), at Nebraska (21-17)
Losses: at Illinois (34-32), at Notre Dame (34-24)
Last Week: 5
CFP Rank: 19
Trailing for most of the game before making a fourth-quarter comeback after Dylan Raiola was knocked out with a season-ending injury was far from a statement performance, but USC nevertheless found a way to beat Nebraska for its best road win of the year to date. Its win over Michigan remains the best win among the Big Ten’s two-loss teams, and a November slate that includes Iowa and Oregon would prove the Trojans belong in the CFP if they win out – but they must first take care of business against Northwestern this weekend.
6. Michigan (7-2, 5-1)
Wins: New Mexico (34-17), Central Michigan (63-3), at Nebraska (30-27), Wisconsin (24-10), Washington (24-7), at Michigan State (31-20), Purdue (21-16)
Losses: at Oklahoma (24-13), at USC (31-13)
Last Week: 6
CFP Rank: 21
Beating Purdue by only five points is a result that won’t impress anybody, and likely contributed to Michigan starting outside the top 20 in the initial CFP rankings. Outside of a dominant second half against Washington, the Wolverines haven’t had any particularly impressive results this season. But Michigan still has the most linear path to the playoff among the Big Ten’s two-loss teams. If the Wolverines win out, which would mean beating Ohio State in The Game for a fifth straight year, their victory over the Buckeyes with a 10-2 record would very likely propel them into the 12-team field.
7. Washington (6-2, 3-2)
Wins: Colorado State (38-21), UC Davis (70-10), at Washington State (59-24), at Maryland (24-20), Rutgers (38-19), Illinois (42-25)
Losses: Ohio State (24-6), at Michigan (24-7)
Last Week: 7
CFP Rank: 23
Washington has less to hang its hat on right now than any of the Big Ten’s other two-loss teams, so it’s not a certainty that the Huskies would make the CFP even if they win out. But like Michigan, they have the chance for a big résumé-boosting win at the end of the regular season that could propel them into the field with a 10-2 record if they beat Oregon. Whether the Huskies are capable of beating the Ducks is uncertain, considering how they were shut down by Ohio State and Michigan, but their 17-point win over Illinois two weeks ago kept their hopes alive.
Out of CFP Contention
8. Illinois (6-3, 3-3)
Wins: Western Illinois (52-3), at Duke (45-19), Western Michigan (38-0), USC (34-32), Purdue (43-27), Rutgers (35-13)
Losses: at Indiana (63-10), Ohio State (34-16), at Washington (42-25)
Last Week: 9
Illinois bounced back from its loss at Washington with a comfortable win over Rutgers, but that’s unfortunately too little, too late for the Illini’s CFP hopes. Illinois is well-positioned for its second straight 9-3 season with no ranked opponents left on its schedule, but that won’t get Illinois into the CFP with its decisive losses to three of the four best teams it’s played this season.
9. Nebraska (6-3, 3-3)
Wins: Cincinnati (20-17), Akron (68-0), Houston Christian (59-7), Michigan State (38-27), at Maryland (34-31), Northwestern (28-21)
Losses: Michigan (30-27), at Minnesota (24-6), USC (21-17)
Last Week: 8
Nebraska’s playoff dreams faded away last Saturday as the Cornhuskers suffered one of their all-too-common close losses in a winnable game by blowing a fourth-quarter lead vs. USC at home. Making matters worse, Nebraska lost its starting quarterback for the rest of the season with Dylan Raiola breaking his fibula. Nebraska started 5-2 last year before faltering to a 6-6 regular-season finish; with Raiola sidelined, the Cornhuskers could be in jeopardy of a similar finish.
10. Northwestern (5-3, 3-2)
Wins: Western Illinois (42-7), UCLA (17-14), UL Monroe (42-3), at Penn State (22-21), Purdue (19-0)
Losses: at Tulane (23-3), Oregon (34-14), at Nebraska (28-21)
Last Week: 10
After a bye week, Northwestern enters November needing just one win against USC, Michigan, Minnesota or Illinois to earn bowl eligibility. Anything above .500 would be a great outcome for David Braun’s squad, considering how bleak things looked at the start of the season when the Wildcats lost their season opener at Tulane by 20 points.
11. Minnesota (6-3, 4-2)
Wins: Buffalo (23-10), Northwestern State (66-0), Rutgers (31-28), Purdue (27-20), Nebraska (24-6), Michigan State (23-20)
Losses: at California (27-14), at Ohio State (42-3), at Iowa (41-3)
Last Week: 8
Needing overtime to beat Michigan State continued a trend of Minnesota having to battle to earn one-score wins over some of the Big Ten’s worst teams, but the Golden Gophers nevertheless remain undefeated at home this season. Their dismal performance in their three road games so far squashed P.J. Fleck’s playoff expectations for his team, but an eight-win season remains attainable if Minnesota can win two of three against Oregon, Northwestern and Wisconsin.
12. UCLA (3-5, 3-2)
Wins: Penn State (42-37), at Michigan State (38-13), Maryland (20-17)
Losses: Utah (43-10), at UNLV (30-23), New Mexico (35-10), at Northwestern (17-14), at Indiana (56-6)
Last Week: 12
UCLA was the first Big Ten team eliminated from the playoff race when it lost its first four games of the season, but the Bruins enter November with a shot to move into the top 10 of the Big Ten Power Rankings if they can beat Nebraska this weekend. That would have been unfathomable at the end of September.
Big Ten Bottom-Feeders
13. Maryland (4-4, 1-4)
Wins: FAU (39-7), Northern Illinois (20-9), Towson (44-17), at Wisconsin (27-10)
Losses: Washington (24-20), Nebraska (34-31), at UCLA (20-17), Indiana (55-10)
Last Week: 13
The only reason Maryland didn’t drop in this week’s Big Ten Power Rankings is that no one else below them in the rankings won either. The Terps have fallen off a cliff since the end of September, with their 45-point home loss to Indiana representing a new low after they at least kept things competitive in their September losses.
14. Rutgers (4-5, 1-5)
Wins: Ohio (34-31), Miami-Ohio (45-17), Norfolk State (60-10), at Purdue (27-24)
Losses: Iowa (38-28), at Minnesota (31-28), at Washington (38-19), Oregon (56-10), at Illinois (35-13)
Last Week: 14
Any good vibes stemming from Rutgers’ first Big Ten win of the season at Purdue two weeks ago went away quickly as the Scarlet Knights were blown out at Illinois last weekend. They’ll face Maryland this Saturday in a battle for 13th place in the conference.
15. Penn State (3-5, 0-5)
Wins: Nevada (46-11), Florida International (34-0), Villanova (52-6)
Losses: Oregon (30-24), at UCLA (42-37), Northwestern (22-21), at Iowa (25-24), at Ohio State (38-14)
Last Week: 15
After losing by only one score in its first four Big Ten games, the Nittany Lions got blown out by Ohio State as they were outscored 21-0 in the second half. They kept things competitive enough for a half in Columbus to engender belief that they could earn some wins in November, but the fact remains that Penn State still hasn’t beaten a Power 4 team this year with just four games to go.
16. Michigan State (3-6, 0-6)
Wins: Western Michigan (23-6), Boston College (42-40), Youngstown State (41-24)
Losses: at USC (45-31), at Nebraska (38-27), UCLA (38-13), at Indiana (38-13), Michigan (31-20), at Minnesota (23-20)
Last Week: 16
Michigan State squandered its best opportunity to win a Big Ten game so far this season as it allowed Minnesota to drive for a game-tying touchdown in the final two minutes of regulation, then gave up another touchdown in overtime after settling for a field goal to start the extra period. The Spartans have two winnable games left against Penn State and Maryland (with a road game at Iowa in between), but likely need to win at least one, if not two, to save Jonathan Smith’s job.
17. Purdue (2-7, 0-6)
Wins: Ball State (31-0), Southern Illinois (34-17)
Losses: at USC (33-17), at Notre Dame (56-30), Illinois (43-27), at Minnesota (27-20), at Northwestern (19-0), Rutgers (27-24), at Michigan (21-16)
Last Week: 17
The Boilermakers put up a valiant fight at Michigan, but that doesn’t change the fact that they’re the first team in the Big Ten to seven losses. They’ve been more competitive than they were a year ago, but they’re still starting at a second straight winless season in conference play with a daunting final stretch against Ohio State, Washington and Indiana.
18. Wisconsin (2-6, 0-5)
Wins: Miami-Ohio (17-0), Middle Tennessee State (42-10)
Losses: at Alabama (38-14), Maryland (27-10), at Michigan (24-10), Iowa (37-0), Ohio State (34-0), at Oregon (21-7)
Last Week: 18
Wisconsin didn’t play in Week 10, which meant it scored only seven fewer points than it had in its previous three games combined. The Badgers will have had to make major improvements offensively during their final bye week if they’re going to win a conference game this year with a four-game stretch of Washington, Indiana, Illinois and Minnesota to end the season.
