Ohio State vs. Miami Preview: Key Matchups in the Trenches to Play Pivotal Role in College Football Playoff Quarterfinal Outcome

#10 Miami

Hurricanes

11-2 (6-2)

roster  |  schedule

DEC. 31, 2025 - 7:30 p.m. Et

AT&T Stadium

Arlington, TX

ESPNOSU -9.5

The 25 days since the Buckeyes’ Big Ten Championship Game loss to Indiana have brought silent focus from the team and deafening noise from external pundits. That’s the everyday beat writers like those enlisted by this website and national personalities alike. The issues that cost Ohio State in that contest have been analyzed, and the methods of fixing them have been voiced by its players.

Miami, the first of what the Buckeyes’ program and fans hope are three College Football Playoff opponents, will test the fixes. A great defensive front that will attack Ohio State’s offensive line first and foremost, but talent lingers everywhere in the ranks of the Hurricanes.

“We've had a few weeks to go through and identify the things that we've done well during the regular season and then the things that we need to do better in order to win this game, because that's the focus, is winning this game,” Ryan Day said on Monday. “That's it. Nothing else.”

Twenty-three years ago, Ohio State concluded a then-unprecedented 14-0 season for its first national championship in 34 years against Miami. On Wednesday, it will have to avoid faceplanting at the start of its journey against the Hurricanes.

The Headlines

Get Right on the Offensive Line

Ohio State’s offensive line swung from its best performance of the season at Michigan to its worst of the year against Indiana in a span of seven days.

Elite Hoosier defensive line aside, the Buckeyes’ performance up front in the Big Ten title game was, in a word, unacceptable. Ohio State allowed five sacks vs. Indiana, nearly doubling its season total to 11. It picked up 58 rushing yards on 26 attempts, a meager 2.2 yards per carry.

“Obviously, our pass protection wasn't up to par of what our expectation is,” center Carson Hinzman said on Dec. 22. “Looking at some of the things, just going back to fundamentals, over these next couple weeks, we know what's gonna be important.”

Right guard Tegra Tshabola is listed as doubtful for the CFP matchup. But he might have been fighting for his job, anyway, after a season marred by inconsistency, especially against Indiana. Gabe VanSickle and Joshua Padilla will be the men rotating in his place between Hinzman and right tackle Phillip Daniels.

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The challenge facing Ohio State’s front five is a great one. First-team All-American Rueben Bain Jr. and first-team All-ACC performer Akheem Mesidor have combined for 16 sacks this year, fueling a 41-sack effort from Miami as a team that places it fourth in the country. Defensive tackle Ahmad Moten Sr. anchors the interior, making second-team All-ACC in his own right.

Miami also boasts a top-10 run defense in both rushing yards allowed per game and yards allowed per carry. Three and a half weeks of going back to fundamentals, then zeroing in on the challenge ahead, will come to bear. If Ohio State’s offensive line can trade blows with Miami’s defensive line, then the Buckeyes’ best-in-country defensive and offensive skill position talent should be able to create some separation. If not, another slog could be on hand.

Dig Up Old Roots

Speaking of the offensive side of the ball, Day is back to being Ohio State’s lead play caller for the Cotton Bowl, the first time he’s done so since 2023 – also in the Cotton Bowl.

That Cotton Bowl wasn’t in a CFP, it was part of the final batch of “New Year’s Six” bowl games before they were integrated into the 12-team format in 2024. The Buckeyes lost an ill-fated 14-3 ballgame after being forced to play then-third string freshman quarterback Lincoln Kienholz most of the contest and seeing one of the worst offensive line performances in recent Ohio State memory.

Outside of that game, Day’s reputation as a play caller is elite. He dialed up the most prolific passing offense by raw stats in Ohio State history during his final year as offensive coordinator in 2018. When Day took over as head coach the following season, the output didn't stop. Ohio State had a top-three scoring offense in 2019, 2021 and 2022 before Day yielded play-calling to embrace a needed CEO role ahead of 2024.

Day is especially masterful when given extra time to prepare. He put the 2022 Georgia defense, a top-five unit in the country that year, into a schematic blender in the CFP semifinals, with C.J. Stroud throwing for 348 yards in a 42-41 loss. It was the most points the Bulldogs allowed that year. The gap between the 2024 regular season and CFP also saw Day get much more involved with offensive game planning, which yielded obvious success.

Play calling played a role in Ohio State’s offensive struggles against Indiana, particularly as the Buckeyes came away with just 10 points in four red zone trips. The distractions of Early Signing Day and offensive coordinator Brian Hartline being hired as South Florida’s next head coach likely had a role in that. It was Hartline’s first year dialing up the offense.

Ultimately, it feels like it’s best Day is back in the driver’s seat. How it impacts Ohio State should it win this game when the transfer portal opens on Friday remains to be seen.

"Keenan will be very much involved," Day said on Dec. 22. "Everybody will be involved with the play calling. Ultimately, it'll be my decision what calls go into the game in this game. Kind of wanted to take that off of Brian's plate as we head into the playoffs because he's got so much going on with what he's trying to do."

Repeat Patterns For Repeat Title

There are a few trends that are vital for Ohio State to copy from its 2024 CFP run to find similar success in 2025.

A fast start is the first, naturally. The Buckeyes took the field for the first time after a heartbreaking 13-10 loss to Michigan in 2024 and scored on their first three drives against Tennessee in the first round of the CFP, led 21-10 at halftime and won 42-17. Off a heartbreaking 13-10 loss in the Big Ten Championship Game in 2025, a fast start is again key.

“I thought we were very specific on what we wanted to get done the first week (of practice), second week, third week and now into the game week,” Day said Tuesday. “So it needed players, coaches to all be bought into exactly how we wanted to approach this and primed up for playing in this game. So I think it's important on how this time has gone. I think they've bought into it. They've understood it. I think practice has been efficient. Our preparation has been efficient but now we need to continue to do that as we head into this game. And like any coach will tell you, you want to have a fast start early in the game and then play for 60 minutes.”

Second is the way the offensive line jelled after its worst performance of the season, as already reviewed in detail for this year’s OL above. Lastly is explosive plays. Ohio State scored nine touchdowns of 20 or more yards and had plenty of other big gains set up end zone trips in last year’s CFP.

Those are the types of plays that swing football games. If those three trends return, little can stop Ohio State from making a run again.

Watch Out For These Guys

Miami WR Malachi Toney

The Hurricanes’ whole offense runs through the reclassified freshman, who would still be a senior in high school in 99% of cases. He’s a running threat out of the backfield or taking jet sweeps, which count toward his team-leading receiving stats, and a dangerous punt returner. He has 89 receptions for 992 yards and eight touchdowns on the year.

RELATED Containing Malachi Toney Crucial for Ohio State in Cotton Bowl

Miami NB Keionte Scott

Jerome Miron – Imagn Images

Scott is the primary glue that holds Miami’s pass defense together, providing excellent run support, too, while lining up all over the field. He has 54 tackles with 13 tackles for loss and five sacks, adding an interception, two forced fumbles, two fumble recoveries and five pass breakups. He took home second-team All-ACC honors for his efforts this year.

Ohio State LB Arvell Reese

This feels like a game where Reese can be unleashed. Star Miami quarterback Carson Beck is not the most mobile signal-caller Ohio State has played, and it’s been a minute since the first-team All-American had a monster game, at least statistically. The last of his 6.5 sacks came at Purdue on Nov. 8. He’s only averaged eight pass rush snaps per game since, per Pro Football Focus. That should change in the Cotton Bowl.

Game Week Talk

“Rueben Bain, very physical guy. I really love physical football, football how it’s meant to be played. Let’s see, is our guy better than your guy? Mesidor, he has to use finesse, but he’s a football player at the end of the day. He’s gonna run through your face, he’s gonna do those things, but I love watching both those guys on the field, lowkey.”– Ohio State RT Phillip Daniels on his and LT Austin Siereveld's matchup with Bain and Mesidor

This is the top matchup to watch in this game, whether Daniels and Siereveld can handle that first-team All-ACC combo of Bain and Mesidor at defensive end. Siereveld has been the most reliable of Ohio State’s offensive line pieces, with zero sacks and only 10 pressures allowed this season, per PFF. He and Daniels will need their A-games.

“I don't really care about what anybody has to say. We all play football, we're all ballers in our minds, we all believe in each other and believe in ourselves. So all the exterior noise and stuff, I don't really care for it. I'm just here to play football.”– Miami DE Akheem Mesidor on his team being a sizeable underdog

Miami heads into Wednesday as a multi-score underdog to Ohio State, but that’s not affecting the emotions of the Hurricanes one way or another. At least not Mesidor. Vegas can say what it says, but as always, there’s a reason they play the games. The Buckeyes will aim to prove the oddsmakers right, but will gladly take a win that doesn't cover the spread, too.

“I'm from Miami. I grew up in Miami, from Miami Gardens. So, yeah, you could say there's a little bit of emotion going against my hometown team. At the end of the day, I'm happy for them guys to be here and me playing against them. Truly, look back 10 years from now, I'll be looking at this game, watching it and be like, ‘Yeah, I played against my hometown team.’ And whatever I do on New Year’s Eve, I'm going to be looking at it 10 years from now.”– Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith on facing his hometown Miami Hurricanes

There’s extra motivation for Ohio State’s brightest star, hailing from the Miami area. The Hurricanes finished as the runner-up in his recruitment. Now back to full health after playing through a quad strain at the end of the year, Smith has a chance to start another CFP gauntlet in style with a big performance against the team he grew up rooting for.

Get Smart

• Ohio State is 3-2 all-time vs. Miami, highlighted by the Buckeyes’ win over the Hurricanes in the 2002-03 national championship game.
• Miami coach Mario Cristobal is 1-0 vs. Ryan Day, as he was Oregon’s head coach when the Ducks beat Ohio State at Ohio Stadium in 2021.
• Ohio State is 3-1 all-time in the Cotton Bowl. The Buckeyes are playing in the Cotton Bowl for the third year in a row; the Buckeyes suffered their only Cotton Bowl loss against Missouri in a non-playoff game in 2023, while they beat Texas in a CFP semifinal game at the Cotton Bowl last season.
• Ohio State has a 7-4 all-time record in the College Football Playoff. Miami is making its first CFP appearance.
• Ohio State has eight players from Florida, including four key contributors from the Miami area: wide receivers Jeremiah Smith and Brandon Inniss, defensive end Kenyatta Jackson Jr. and running back CJ Donaldson.
• Freshman tight end Luka Gilbert (West Chester) is Miami’s lone player from Ohio.
• Three Miami players were Ohio State commits as recruits: Starting running back Mark Fletcher, starting defensive tackle Justin Scott and backup running back Jordan Lyle.
• ESPN will have a MegaCast presentation for the Cotton Bowl. The main broadcast will air on ESPN, while additional broadcasts will include Field Pass with The Pat McAfee Show (ESPN2), Skycast (ESPNU), Command Center (ESPNEWS), Field Pass with ACC Huddle (ACC Network) and Spanish Language (ESPN Deportes). There will also be a national radio broadcast on ESPN Radio.

How It Plays Out

Line: Ohio State -9.5, O/U 40.5

There still hasn’t been a team to score more than 16 points against Ohio State’s defense this season. Indiana, with Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza, a formidable offensive line and dynamic receiver duo of Omar Cooper Jr. and Elijah Sarratt, still only scored 13 against the Buckeyes in its Big Ten title win. More flaws are apparent with Miami’s offense, which hasn’t run the ball well overall this season, though it did gouge a subpar Texas A&M run defense in the first round of the CFP.

As with most football clashes, this game will be won and lost in the trenches. Ohio State’s offensive line doesn’t need to dominate, but give Julian Sayin, Carnell Tate and Jeremiah Smith time to work the downfield passing game and there should be enough explosive plays to come out victorious in this one if the Silver Bullets are operating at their elite standard.

All Eleven Warriors staffers are taking Ohio State to win, and all but two of our 12 weekly pickers have the Buckeyes by double digits. If the Hurricanes’ defensive line creates a natural disaster zone up front, that’s where this one can get close.

Eleven Warriors Staff Prediction
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