We back!
You long-timers know I love to set myself up for winter ridicule by detailing five bold predictions ahead of each Ohio State football season as part of our annual Season Preview series.
You also know I try to go fairly big on my predictions which of course doesn't help my accuracy but how fun is it to predict Marvin Harrison will have 1,000 receiving yards?
Even with the lack of a known entity at quarterback, I'm still very bullish on the 2023 Buckeyes, particularly the running game and the defense even as Jim Knowles' unit was burned to the damn ground by Michigan and Georgia to end the 2022 slate, and that'll be reflected here.
As always, I'll have the stones to revisit what hopefully won't be a catastrophic list of predictions come January. With that, let's get to it!
DEFENSE RANKS TOP 10 NATIONALLY IN LIMITING BIG PLAYS OF 40+ YARDS
Among the defense's many flaws in Year One of the Jim Knowles Experience, giving up big plays was probably the most damaging to its cause, and our corneas.
The Buckeyes ranked No. 115 in the country out of 131 FBS programs, allowing EIGHTEEN plays of at least 40 yards. (Of those plays going for 40+ yards, 11 went for at least 50 yards, six went for at least 60 and five went for 70 or more (No. 128) with four of those coming during losses to Michigan and Georgia.)
Those 18 plays of 40+ yards allowed were the most since the 2018 Buckeyes gave up 23.
This year though, I'm buying into a couple things. One, I banking on Knowles himself growing from last year and having a better feel for when to be aggressive and having a better sense of his players' ability to execute his scheme.
Two, I think the players, particularly in the secondary, are going to be miles better this year in both discipline and execution.
To rank in the top 10 of limiting 40+ yard plays last year, that would've meant the Buckeyes giving up no more than six such plays. We'll see what that magic number turns out to be this year but I'm all-in on the Buckeyes solving the riddle of controlling big plays at an elite level.
DEFENSIVE LINE STEPS UP - OHIO STATE RANKS TOP 10 NATIONALLY IN SACKS PER GAME
It's wild that Ohio State has ranked outside the top 30 in sacks per game for three straight seasons. Even worse, the defensive line has accounted for just 68% and 64% of the team's sacks in two of the last three years, respectively.
The 2022 and 2020 defensive lines, sack production wise, were two of the three worst across Larry Johnson's nine seasons at Ohio State.
I'm guessing that's unacceptable to coach Johnson and while sacks per game is a team metric, I'm feeling confident about how the defensive line will lead a sack resurgence in Columbus this fall.
| SEASON | SACKS/G | NATL RANK | % SACKS FROM DL | % HURRIES FROM DL | SCORING DEF | NATL RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2.62 | 34 | 67.6% | 62.9% | 21.0 | 24 |
| 2021 | 2.77 | 34 | 85.1% | 70.8% | 22.8 | 38 |
| 2020 | 2.63 | 37 | 64.2% | 63.6% | 25.8 | 43 |
| 2019 | 3.86 | 3 | 70.3% | 76.4% | 13.7 | 4 |
| 2018 | 2.93 | 15 | 74.3% | 76.0% | 25.5 | 50 |
| 2017 | 3.21 | 10 | 76.7% | 75.8% | 19.0 | 15 |
| 2016 | 2.15 | 58 | 75.0% | 76.2% | 15.5 | 3 |
| 2015 | 2.92 | 9 | 71.0% | 60.4% | 15.1 | 2 |
| 2014 | 3.00 | 13 | 65.6% | 65.0% | 22.0 | 26 |
I'm buying into JT Tuiloloau being a consistent disruptor and I'm beyond neck deep into expecting Mike Hall Jr. to be a game-wrecker. I'm not quite as bullish on Jack Sawyer though I do think he's going to have a solid season as a top three sack guy on the squad. Beyond those horses, ends Kenyatta Jackson, Caden Curry, maybe Mitchell Melton, plus interior pieces like Ty Hamilton, Tywone Malone, Tyleik Wiliams etc. give Johnson his best defensive front in a while.
Complement the front with some sack production from the linebackers and blitzing secondary pieces and I see Ohio State ranking in the top 10 in sacks per game this season.
Last year, that would've meant at least 3.14 sacks per game. Put me down for the 2023 Buckeyes averaging 3.25 per game or better. Bonus bold prediction: the defensive line accounts for 80% of that production. That would be the second-best mark of Johnson's OSU tenure.
TREVEYON HENDERSON'S BOUNCEBACK SEASON MAKES OSU A TOP 10 RUSHING ATTACK
As Ryan Day has leaned so heavily on his quarterbacks the last few years, along with other factors like injuries, Ohio State ranked just No. 32 in 2022 and No. 47 in 2021 in rushing yards per game.
In fact, last year, Ohio State's running game accounted for just 39% of the offense's total yards. That's the lowest run game production since the pass happy 2018 season with Dwayne Haskins carrying the offense generated just 32% of its total yards on the ground. The running game ranked No. 63 in the land in rush yards per game that season.
This year, I see some balance coming back into the fold for a host of reasons. One, I don't think Kyle McCord or Devin Brown can do what C.J. Stroud did throwing the football. Not this year at least. Two, I think the offensive line has a chance to be really good assuming it stays healthy - I don't have a lot of faith in the depth right now.
Three, and most importantly, I think TreVeyon Henderson is ready to explode after an injury-plagued 2022 campaign that has some folks forgetting what he's capable of, as the lead dog in a freaky deep running back room.
For Ohio State to rank in the top 10 in rushing offense, that'll likely take about 220 yards per game. I like the Buckeyes to average at least that, maybe closer to 230-235.
Bonus bold prediction: As for Henderson, I see him near the 6.5 yards per carry mark while averaging at least 95 yards per game. I know the depth makes the yards per game a tricky proposition but if he goes for at least 6.5 a pop, Tony Alford has to keep him on the field.
TRUE FRESHMAN CARNELL TATE RECORDS 500 RECEIVING YARDS, IS THIRD LEADING RECEIVER
Okay, this one might be a bit too bold but I would love nothing more than to see Tate burst onto the scene especially after his mom, Ashley Griggs, was tragically killed over the summer in a drive-by shooting. He'll honor her well no matter what but how great would it be for him personally to be a key cog in Year One as he continues to deal with something no kid should have to handle?
The Chicago native was an early enrollee for the 2023 class and was the first of the group to lose his black stripe, doing so on March 25 after consistently showing up to compete while flashing the hands and athletic ability that made him a five star recruit.
I know his path to being the third most prolific receiver faces numerous challenges. One, unless Day moves Marvin Harrison Jr. around the field, Tate will be blocked as Route Man's primary backup. Two, even as guys do line up in different spots, besides Harrison and Emeka Egbuka being the lead dogs, you know veterans Xavier Johnson, Julian Fleming and Jayden Ballard, among others, are hoping for increased roles of their own.
Still, I can't wait to pull for Tate and I think his ceiling is just as high as any other receiver on the roster not named Marvin. Might as well start now.
OHIO STATE GETS REVENGE AGAINST GEORGIA, CAPTURES THE NATIONAL TITLE
I really don't think I'm a homer though I have to admit I did pick the Buckeyes to win the natty last year in this column too.
This year, winning the natty indeed feels like a bold prediction to me because simply winning the Big Ten is going to be a Herculean task in and of itself with Michigan hosting Ohio State, having a seasoned quarterback in place and deservedly feeling incredibly confident it has turned the tide in the rivalry.
Meanwhile, the Buckeyes have a tough roadie a week in Wisconsin after what should be a stiff home test versus Penn State. The quarterback position is unsettled as of this moment, the offensive line is breaking in three new starters and we're all banking on a huge resurgence from the defense when facing offenses with a pulse.
That said, I just feel like it's all going to come together. While I don't see McCord or Brown coming close to Stroud numbers, I think improved balance will actually benefit the team as a whole and I'm clearly on the Henderson bounceback hype train. I obviously think the defense is going to make a leap. And I think Day is due to break through and he does it in style, beating Georgia to capture Ohio State's first national title of his tenure.
