Ohio State plays its final home game of the season today, and the stakes couldn't be much higher.
Both Ohio State and Michigan State will be vying for the Big Ten East lead and to position themselves to make the College Football Playoff, but only the winner will still control its own destiny after Saturday’s game. It’s perhaps the biggest test of the season for the Buckeyes since they lost their home opener against Oregon 10 weeks ago, and it will also be the final time that many Buckeyes take the field in Ohio Stadium, as it’s the last of the year’s seven home games.
With just a few hours to go until the action begins in Columbus, we share our final thoughts, questions and predictions entering the battle between the Buckeyes and Spartans.
Final Thoughts
Expect a lot of passing yards again
Garrick nailed it with his prediction last week of “If you like passing, you'll like this game,” as Ohio State and Purdue combined for 751 passing yards. Don’t be surprised if we see more of the same today.
Michigan State has allowed more passing yards per game and faced 50 more passing attempts than any other team in college football this season, which makes it clear how much easier it is to pass the ball against the Spartans than it is to run the ball against the Spartans. Kenneth Walker gets most of the hype for Michigan State's offense, but the Spartans’ passing game isn’t bad and Ohio State’s pass defense is much weaker than its run defense.
I expect to see plenty of big plays through the air in this game – which should ultimately favor C.J. Stroud and the Buckeyes, though I won’t be surprised if Payton Thorne hits a few, too.
– Dan Hope
This could be the closest OSU-MSU game in five years
Everyone remembers the Spartans’ 2015 upset win over the Buckeyes, but it was actually the following year’s 17-16 Ohio State win that stands as the last time a game between the two programs was closer than a 20-point contest. In Mel Tucker’s second year, Michigan State appears to have quickly pulled itself out of the rut it was stuck in for most of the past half-decade, and may actually have what it takes to push Ohio State to the brink this season.
The oddsmakers still have Ohio State winning big in this one, but few would be surprised if it ended as a four-quarter back-and-forth in a battle of top-10 teams.
– Griffin Strom
Ohio State's wide receivers should feast
Dan already pointed out how awful Michigan State's pass defense is, and the Spartans are going to have to play a dangerous game of pick your poison with Ohio State's talented three wideouts.
You don't think Chris Olave isn't going to have a big day his last game in The Shoe, do you? Wouldn't be surprised if he grabs a few touchdowns while he's at it.
– Garrick Hodge
Questions
Can Ohio State’s run defense bottle up Kenneth Walker?
It wouldn’t be the first time that a running back has ridden a hype train into a matchup with Ohio State only to have a quiet day against the Buckeyes. For example: Ohio State held Clemson’s Travis Etienne to just 68 combined rushing yards in the Tigers’ two College Football Playoff games against the Buckeyes in 2019 and 2020, while the Buckeyes held Saquon Barkley to just 44 rushing yards during his All-American campaign in 2017.
This is a different defense than those defenses, and I would bet on Walker running for substantially more yards than those running backs had in those aforementioned games. But this Ohio State defense has consistently held opposing running games in check in all of its last eight games, and doing the same against Walker could be the key to a Buckeye victory on Saturday.
– Dan Hope
Will the Buckeye pass defense have a bounceback effort?
More attention may be placed on the Michigan State run game, and rightfully so given what Kenneth Walker has produced on the ground this season. But the Spartan pass attack seems to be flying under the radar a bit heading into this one, even though the Buckeye secondary had one of its poorest performances of the season just last week.
Is it possible that the significant run threat Walker brings to the table could open things up for Payton Thorne, Jayden Reed and company? Or, will Matt Barnes’ secondary tighten up in what could be a closer game for four quarters? Those are my questions heading into this one.
– Griffin Strom
What's the best College GameDay sign we see?
I'm taking a different approach to the questions this week. I've always been a big fan of turning on the TV early Saturday morning and watching the students at a particular college campus explore their creativity with the signs they conjure for 15 seconds of fame. What will be the best one Saturday? A Michigan State joke? A Michigan joke? Something else?
– Garrick Hodge
Predictions
Chris Olave breaks David Boston’s touchdown record
After Jaxon Smith-Njigba was the star of the Nebraska game and Garrett Wilson was the star of the Purdue game, it feels like Olave is due for a big game of his own, and I think he does so by making history in his final home game as a Buckeye. Olave already has his three two-touchdown games this season, and if he can have his fourth on Saturday – which seems like a very attainable task against Michigan State’s vulnerable pass defense – he’ll surpass David Boston to become Ohio State’s all-time leader in receiving touchdowns.
– Dan Hope
C.J. Stroud will distance himself from the pack as the Heisman favorite
It almost seems too good to be true for C.J. Stroud. Already a slight favorite to win the Heisman Trophy in the minds of many oddsmakers, the Buckeye quarterback has a showcase opportunity to go head-to-head against another one of the award’s frontrunners on Saturday, and Ohio State is favored to win big. More specifically, Michigan State’s defense appears tailor made to allow a monster game from Stroud through the air, which can only help his cause on paper. If Stroud takes advantage of all of the above, his Heisman candidacy will only pick up steam after this weekend.
– Griffin Strom
KW3 keeps Sparty in it, but C.J. Stroud too much for Michigan State
I firmly believe Walker has established himself as one of the best running backs in college football, if not the best. KW3 will control the clock and move the sticks enough for Michigan State to keep Ohio State's offense off the field for the first half, which is how MSU could spring an upset, but OSU's quick-strike ability is too impressive to ignore, and the Buckeyes will head into Michigan week with everything on the line.
– Garrick Hodge
