Ohio State’s chance at revenge against Purdue has arrived.
For the first time since the Buckeyes lost 49-20 to the Boilermakers in 2018, Ohio State plays Purdue again today. It’s the first time since 2012, when Kenny Guiton led Ohio State to a 29-22 comeback win over Purdue, that the Buckeyes and Boilermakers have met in Ohio Stadium.
Saturday’s 3:30 p.m. clash in the Shoe is Ohio State’s second-to-last home game of the year and its third-to-last game of the regular season, as the Buckeyes remain in must-win mode looking to keep themselves in position to make the College Football Playoff while the Boilermakers are looking for back-to-back upsets over top-five teams after beating Michigan State in West Lafayette a week ago.
With about eight hours to go until kickoff between the fifth-ranked Buckeyes and the 19th-ranked Boilermakers, we share our final pregame thoughts, questions entering today’s game and predictions for what we think will happen.
Final Thoughts
Boilermakers or Spoilermakers?
Ah, Purdue. The strangest of all Big Ten teams. A team that will pull off multiple big upsets in the same year yet win “Most likely to lose to a MAC school” at the end of the year awards festival. Between the Iowa and Michigan State wins, you’d think Purdue has used up all the locomotive magic. But we’ll see.
– Garrick Hodge
Karlaftis, Bell have my attention
I thought we missed out on the opportunity to see Nicholas Petit-Frere and Dawand Jones go head-to-head with a potential No. 1 overall NFL draft pick when Kayvon Thibodeaux was unable to play in Oregon’s game against Ohio State, but we’ll get another chance to see such a matchup today, as Purdue defensive end George Karlaftis is now projected to be drafted as highly as the top pick in next year’s draft.
When Purdue's offense is on the field, I’ll be keeping a close eye on the matchup between David Bell and Ohio State’s cornerbacks. Denzel Burke has been excellent all season, while Sevyn Banks and Cameron Brown have also been playing well, but Bell could be the toughest test they’ve faced all year, providing a strong measuring stick for how good the Buckeyes’ CBs actually are.
Overall, Ohio State’s roster is significantly more talented than Purdue’s, and that's why the Buckeyes should win this game. Karlaftis and Bell, though, are legitimately elite players who will be two of the best players on the field on Saturday, and how Ohio State matches up with them individually could go a long way in determining how the game plays out.
– Dan Hope
The spread seems a little too wide on this one
When the Buckeyes have been firing on cylinders this season, they look like they can hang with just about anybody in the country. In fact, even a lackluster performance should probably be enough to put away Purdue. However, the fact that Ohio State is coming off the heels of back-to-back relatively uninspired efforts – particularly on offense – makes me lean a little more cautious about the final score this week.
I predicted a 10-point Buckeye victory against the Boilermakers, who have already knocked off two top-five teams in the country this season, and that’s a far slimmer margin than the oddsmakers have this game pegged at.
– Griffin Strom
This isn't the typical game against Purdue
Ohio State has had plenty of weird games and slip-ups against Purdue throughout the years, but this one feels quite a bit different in that the Boilermakers aren't just a scrappy underdog looking for a shocking upset win in a trap game, they're a legitimately good team trying to line up and beat Ohio State.
Purdue has one of the best wide receivers in the country, a quarterback that just threw for over 500 yards on one of the top defenses in the country, a defensive end that is getting mocked as the No. 1 overall pick in the upcoming draft, and they're playing for a spot in the Big Ten title game.
If Purdue were to win this game, it wouldn't feel like a fluke. It would be because this is a very talented team.
– Kevin Harrish
Questions
Can Ohio State’s offense get its groove back?
I’m guessing this is the question most Ohio State fans have on their minds entering today’s game. Defense and special teams have gotten the job done in Ohio State’s last two games, but two offensive touchdowns per game aren’t going to be enough for the Buckeyes to win out through November. Ohio State’s offense is supposed to be the best in the country, but it didn’t look like it against Penn State or Nebraska, and Purdue’s defense is good enough to make life difficult for the Buckeyes’ offense again today.
Ohio State’s offense probably doesn’t need to regain juggernaut form for the Buckeyes to beat the Boilermakers, who have averaged only 24.8 points per game this season, but the Buckeyes will be playing with fire if they can’t start consistently turning scoring opportunities into touchdowns again.
– Dan Hope
Can the Buckeye ground game reignite?
Failing to rush for 200 yards (or at least average it in a season) is something of a rarity for the Ohio State program in the past decade, yet the Buckeyes have not reached that number in each of the past four games. In fact, they couldn't even get to 100 against Nebraska last time out. Even if a sputtering run game isn’t enough to sink the Buckeyes against Purdue, it’s an element of the offense that’s going to have to improve in a hurry if Ohio State expects to remain unblemished through the final few regular season games.
Statistically, the Boilermakers have been significantly stronger against the pass this season than they have the run, which may be something the Buckeyes can take advantage of as they look to get back on track on the ground.
– Griffin Strom
Will the pass-run balance continue to be one-sided?
Against Nebraska, Ohio State threw the ball 54 times compared to running the ball on 30 occasions. Ryan Day has always stressed the need for a balanced offense, but as long as the Buckeyes can start putting up big numbers again, nobody will really care how the sausage gets made. Passing the ball is clearly the strength of this offense, but the rushing attack against physical defenses has looked disjointed at times over the last few weeks.
– Garrick Hodge
Will the Buckeyes be able to score in the red zone?
Once is an accident, two is a coincidence, but three is a pattern. Last week's game was the third time this season this Ohio State offense has really struggled when it got to the red zone.
The Buckeyes are leaving points on the field and it's becoming clear that it's not just an isolated problem. It seems that every time Ohio State has faced the best and most talented defenses this season – Oregon, Penn State, Nebraska – it can't put the ball in the end zone.
Today is another chance. The Buckeyes seemed to have fixed their third-down woes on defense, but can they right the ship in the red zone?
– Kevin Harrish
Predictions
If you like passing, you’ll like this game
As stated earlier, Ohio State has been extremely pass-happy. Ditto Purdue and Boilermakers starting quarterback Aidan O’Connell, who threw 54 passes for 536 yards and three touchdowns in a 40-29 victory over Sparty. Passing the ball is what both of these teams do, and I don’t see that changing on Saturday.
– Garrick Hodge
Steele Chambers makes his first start at linebacker
Based on the fact that Chambers played nearly every snap of the second half against Nebraska at Will linebacker, I believe Chambers would have made his first start last week if he hadn’t been suspended from the first half for targeting. Although Day said Al Washington would ultimately make the call on who starts at linebacker, Day said Thursday that Chambers is “playing at a starter level, for sure,” and it’s become increasingly evident that Chambers is the Buckeyes’ best playmaker at the position despite his lack of experience playing it.
At a point in the season where Ohio State needs to have its best players on the field as much as possible, I foresee Chambers making his first career start and playing the majority of snaps at Will linebacker against Purdue.
– Dan Hope
Ohio State will hold its opponent under 30 points once again
Due to its obvious struggles at the beginning of the season, the Ohio State defense hasn’t properly received the flowers it probably deserves for its level of play as of late. Although an occasional breakdown here or there has not been a totally uncommon sight, the Buckeyes have not allowed any team to score more than 24 points on them in any single game since Week 2. That’s an impressive feat that deserves highlighting, and Ohio State’s under-30 streak will continue this week if Purdue ends up scoring 27 on Saturday, as I’ve predicted.
– Griffin Strom
Ohio State's defense is up to the task
Purdue's offensive strength is absolutely its passing attack with the No. 8 passing offense in the country led by one of the nation's top receivers and a quarterback that just threw for over 500 yards.
I think the assumption is that Purdue is going to be able to throw the ball successfully today, because for some reason there's still a perception that this Ohio State defense is shaky. But the thing is, I think this passing defense has been quietly very good.
The Buckeyes lead the country in sacks and have a secondary that simply does not allow downfield completions. I think this team is set up to slow down an offense like Purdue's, and I think we'll see that today.
I don't think there will be anywhere near as much scoring as the average person might expect.
– Kevin Harrish
