Ohio State gets back at it tomorrow against an upset-minded Purdue team fresh off a 40-29 win over then-No. 3 Michigan State.
The Boilers rode the right arm of Aidan O'Connell as the senior threw for 536 yards and three scores, with David Bell on the receiving end of 217 of those yards and one of the scores.
Across the field, Ryan Day's squad is coming off a close win in Lincoln that saw his offense sputter at times while his defense largely carried the day.
Will the Buckeyes slow down O'Connell and company? Will Ohio State try to revive its running game? For answers to those questions and more, we turn to 11W's own Dan Hope, Garrick Hodge and Johnny Ginter.
After Ryan Day went away from the run game in another close contest last Saturday, there's been a lot of debate about if Ohio State needs to run the ball as often as in past years or even if Ohio State can run the ball effectively against upper-tier defenses. Do you see the current run/pass play and yardage data as an issue and what's your confidence level Ohio State can line up and run the ball effectively against legit defenses?
Dan: I think it's clear at this point that passing the ball is Ohio State’s strength, but the Buckeyes still rank sixth nationally in rushing yards per attempt this season. I don't know if they can lean on the running game as much as they would like to be able to in big games, and I think Day is likely to continue leaning heavily on the passing game regardless, but the Buckeyes still have one of college football's most dynamic running backs in TreVeyon Henderson and one of the most talented offensive lines in the country. The offensive line hasn't performed well in run blocking in the last couple of games, but I still think the unit is capable of overpowering opponents if it can get things clicking.
Last year's offensive line faced some similar criticism during the regular season, but when the Buckeyes really needed them to step up late in the season, they rose to the occasion, particularly in the Big Ten Championship Game and the Sugar Bowl against Clemson. I think this unit is capable of a similar late-season surge – though I do think the Buckeyes would have problems running the ball if they played Georgia right now.
Garrick: I know the run-pass mix wasn't very balanced last week, but Ohio State needs to do what its best at, and right now that's passing the ball. I think the early shuffling of the offensive line in the Nebraska game with Dawand Jones missing the first few drives never let the line get into a groove offensively, but the Buckeyes definitely struggled running the ball for most of the night against Penn State as well. At this point, if drives are resulting in points, it doesn't really matter how it gets done. But to answer the question, from what we've seen from the Buckeyes lately, could they be expected to have success in the run game against, say, an elite Georgia defense? Seems unlikely at this point.
Johnny: It's only an issue if Ohio State doesn't win the game. I'm a big believer in scoring points in whatever way the defense wants to give you, and if the Buckeyes score 50 by throwing 60 times, then I'm just as okay with that as I would be if they ran it 60 times. With that said, I think that the current iteration of the running game is woefully uncreative, and Day and company have to figure out more interesting and less predictable ways to get Henderson the ball.
A key factor in Saturday's game figures to be Ohio State's defensive line versus Purdue's offensive line. The Boilermakers rank just No. 99 in the country giving up 2.78 sacks per game while the Buckeyes sit at No. 4 in the nation producing 3.67 sacks per contest. Will Ohio State impact the Boilers' strong passing game by getting consistent pressure? Which DT or DE has impressed you the most so far this season?
Johnny: They'd better; Purdue quarterback Aidan O'Connell has been on an absolute tear in the past few games, and by "absolute tear" I mean "threw for a billion yards against Sparty" which is still concerning. I have some hope that this will be Jack Sawyer's coming out party, who has looked impressive in the snaps he's gotten.
Dan: Ohio State's pass-rush has been its most improved unit in the second half of the season, so there's reason for confidence that will continue this week against a mediocre offensive line. Jeff Brohm is good at scheming things up offensively to mitigate opponents’ strengths, so I don't necessarily think Ohio State will rack up a ton of sacks against the Boilermakers, but I do think the defensive line will be able to get pressure on Aidan O'Connell.
Over the course of the season as a whole, I don't know if there's one defensive lineman who has clearly stood out to me above the rest. Zach Harrison and Haskell Garrett have probably been the most consistently disruptive, while Tyleik Williams, J.T. Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer have all flashed as freshmen. Over the last three games, however, I've been really impressed with Tyreke Smith, who's finally playing at the star level we've been waiting to see him play at for three-and-a-half years.
Garrick: I think so, especially with how well that unit has been playing in recent weeks. Tyreke Smith has been a human wrecking ball lately, the freshmen are making key plays when their number is called, and Zach Harrison and Haskell Garrett are playing like upperclassmen.
On the flip side, if the Buckeyes can't disrupt O'Connell, it's going to be a very long day.
Whether or not the Buckeyes can get pressure on the quarterback is huge but the back seven will be tested either way. Purdue ranks No. 8 in passing offense so far this season (331 ypg) and David Bell in particular is a guy to watch averaging 125 receiving yards per game. Will Ohio State be able to control Bell? I'm guessing you feel good about Ohio State's corners but how confident are you in Ohio State's safeties at this point in the season? Will they improve this year?
Garrick: Denzel Burke is cool as a cucumber. He wasn't worried about facing Jahan Dotson, and he shouldn't be worried about facing David Bell. Now, he's not going to completely shut him down by any means, as Bell is always going to get his, but it's unlikely he's going to go off for 200 yards like he did against Sparty.
Johnny: Denzel Burke is obviously a stud but honestly safety feels like an absolute crapshoot every game at this point. Ideally you'd have a solid linebacking corps to help on short and intermediate routes, but alas...
Dan: I think Bell will make his share of plays, but I think the Buckeyes will be able to keep him from having the 200-yard games he had in Purdue's upsets of Iowa and Michigan State. Denzel Burke will likely be matched up with him for most of the game, and he's held up against every receiver he's faced so far. As the question alludes to, though, I'm sure Purdue will look for ways to scheme things up that could put Bell in more favorable matchups with Ohio State's safeties, who – along with the linebackers – have been responsible for most of the big plays that the pass defense has allowed. If the Boilermakers line Bell up in the slot, the cover safety will be an important player in this matchup, and I think Marcus Williamson should be the player getting most of the snaps at that position in this game, as he's been more consistent in coverage than Lathan Ransom.
Penn State hosts Michigan in a B1G East battle at noon on Saturday. Who do you have emerging victorious here and why?
Dan: My money's on Michigan. The Wolverines have played good football all year and they have a lot more to play for right now than Penn State does. I expect the Nittany Lions and their defense to keep things close like they did against the Buckeyes, but I think Michigan ultimately prevails by one or two scores.
Garrick: Does this count as a big game, or does this count as a game Michigan is supposed to win? If it's the former, Penn State. If it's the latter, Michigan. Discuss accordingly.
Johnny: Michigan does one thing generally pretty well offensively, and that consistency should be more than enough to take care of the Nittany Lions.
Finally, the Buckeyes are a hefty 20-point favorite at home against the Boilermakers. Do they cover? Give us your final score and what percent of Ohio State's total yards come via the running game.
Johnny: I do think they cover, 42-17, but I also think that they choose the path of least resistance (ie, the passing game) to get there. 350ish passing, maybe 150 rushing.
Dan: Considering that Ohio State has won each of its last two games by only nine points and Purdue has shown it will rise to the occasion against top competition, the 20-point spread is a bit too high for me. But I still think the Buckeyes get close, as I'm predicting a final score of 41-23 with Ohio State winning. I'll say Ohio State gets right around 500 yards with about 180 of those yards – or 36% to answer your question – coming on the ground.
Garrick: They'll win, but I can't see them covering. Purdue is too pesky. I think something like 38-27 sounds about right. Seeing as Day has been letting it fly at will lately, I'll say the yardage breakdown going about 365 through the air and 120 on the ground.
