If the college football season ended right now, Ohio State would be going to its third straight College Football Playoff.
Thanks to Michigan State’s loss to Purdue last weekend, Ohio State is now sitting fourth in the College Football Playoff rankings, moving up one spot in the second rankings of the year that were released Tuesday night. If it was Selection Sunday, the Buckeyes would be joining No. 1 Georgia, No. 2 Alabama and No. 3 Oregon in this year’s CFP.
Take a look at the full #CFBPlayoff selection committee rankings for games played through November 6.
— College Football Playoff (@CFBPlayoff) November 10, 2021
Where does your team rank?
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Even though Ohio State didn’t dominate Nebraska, it remains ahead of every team that could have been a threat to jump the Buckeyes this week, as No. 5 Cincinnati won by just eight points against a Tulsa team that Ohio State beat by 21 while No. 6 Michigan beat Indiana by 25 fewer points than the Buckeyes and No. 8 Oklahoma had the week off.
But the season is still far from over. Ohio State still has to win four more games, and it’s unlikely any of those wins will come easily. Purdue, which is now 19th in the CFP rankings, will look to knock another team out of the top four when it plays at Ohio State this weekend, while the Buckeyes also still have to beat Michigan State and Michigan and win the Big Ten Championship Game over whoever wins the Big Ten West to punch their ticket to the playoff.
So when Ryan Day was asked Tuesday about the possibility that Ohio State could be in the top four of this week’s CFP rankings, he said he wouldn’t be paying the ranking any mind.
“If we don’t win this game, it doesn’t matter,” Day said. “What matters is that we continue to win. And where are we at, at the end of the season? That’s what matters. And so I think it’s great for college football, I think it brings up a lot of conversation and that’s great. But what did last week matter? It didn’t matter anything, because here we are today and tonight, and it will be the same thing next week.
“So our focus just has to be on Purdue, and that’s all that matters. And then we move on. And that’s the way it should be. But it’s obviously great to be relevant in November, and that’s what our guys are fired up about. And I think bringing great energy in November with a young team is a challenge, but we’re looking forward to this game, a 3:30 home game against Purdue, a really good team, and that’s what it’s all about.”
Even with Michigan State’s loss to Purdue, Ohio State still has as many chances to bolster its CFP résumé as any team in the country. Ohio State is now set to play three top- 20 teams in the next three weeks, still including two top-seven teams in Michigan State and Michigan. Considering that no one else in the country will play two more regular season games against two top-seven teams, winning out should lock the Buckeyes into the four-team field without much drama.
That said, Ohio State’s remaining opponents will all be highly motivated to beat the Buckeyes, as Purdue still has a chance to win the Big Ten West while the final two games of the regular season still loom as CFP elimination games for both teams. Although Michigan State’s drop behind Michigan in this week’s rankings is head-scratching, considering that the two teams currently have identical 8-1 records and Michigan State beat Michigan two weeks ago – the same logic that CFP selection committee chairman Gary Barta has applied to No. 3 Oregon being ranked ahead of Ohio State – the Spartans would very likely climb back into the top four if they beat Ohio State and win out as a 1-loss Big Ten champion.
From Ohio State’s perspective, though, the most important thing to take away from this week’s rankings is the Buckeyes still have to play three more games against teams who are currently ranked in the top 20. Purdue, Michigan State and Michigan are all capable of beating Ohio State if the Buckeyes don’t play their best football, and they didn’t play their best football (particularly on offense) in either of their last two games against Penn State and Nebraska, so their focus needs to be on continuing to improve and executing against the Boilermakers this weekend.
If the Buckeyes can win all of those games and the Big Ten Championship Game, they should maintain their current standing as a top-four team no matter how many points they win those games by. If they lose any of those games, however, they’re unlikely to have a path back into the top four as a two-loss team.
“Our No. 1 goal is to win, and that’s all that matters to us,” Day said. “College football could maybe be the only sport in the world where it matters sometimes how you win. We can’t get caught up in that, because when you start getting caught up in that, that’s how you lose.”
