The more things change, the more they (kind of) stay the same.
Here we are once again. Ohio State will meet Clemson on Friday evening as the villainous Dabo Swinney looks to lead the Tigers to another championship game. Buckeye fans have certainly had enough of Clemson and are hoping the program gets its first win in what will be five opportunities.
Several of the key names from last season will be playing once again in New Orleans, but both teams are without others who played a prominent role in the previous semifinal. Last year, the Ohio State secondary facing off against the Tigers' wideouts was one of the bigger matchups we were watching. Jeff Okudah, Damon Arnette, and Co. did a fine job against Tee Higgins and Justyn Ross. But it was Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne – with an assist from the officials – that did the bulk of the damage.
A number of new faces lead to a bit of a different feel from a season ago. Today, we're looking at the matchups and who's got the edge this time around.
Ohio State Passing Game vs. Clemson Pass Defense
There's no getting around it: Justin Fields has not been good in Ohio State's two biggest games. Is he trying to do too much? Focusing on his first read? Looking to impress scouts? I don't have a definitive answer to that, but I'm of the belief that he has tried to do a little bit too much at times which has led to some uncharacteristic turnovers. And the absence of Chris Olave certainly didn't help against Northwestern.
Outside of red zone woes and the Isaiah Simmons interception, Fields was really good in last year's semifinal. The Tigers bring the nation's No. 26 pass defense to New Orleans on Friday, and there's certainly some talent in the secondary. Cornerback Derion Kendrick was first-team All-ACC while Andrew Booth and safety Nolan Turner were second-team. It's definitely worth noting that Turner will miss the first half against Ohio State.
Ryan Day indicated that Chris Olave will be back for the game, and that's obviously great news for Fields and the passing game. Ohio State gets the edge in this department.
- Edge: Ohio State
Ohio State Rushing Game vs. Clemson Rush Defense
This is a tough one to call as it's truly a strength-versus-strength matchup. Ohio State's rush offense ranks No. 5 in the country while the Tigers rush defense ranks No. 9. Clemson is allowing just shy of 100 rushing yards per game on the season. It did allow 208 yards to Notre Dame in the first matchup, but it's important to remember that Clemson was without two linebackers and starting defensive tackle Tyler Davis in that game.
J.K. Dobbins isn't walking through the door, and I can't imagine we'll see anything similar to the 331-yard performance Trey Sermon had against Northwestern. Still, Ohio State's offensive line has been mauling teams in the ground game and Tony Alford's unit has been pretty dang good even while lacking a true superstar. You certainly have to consider Justin Fields' rushing ability here as well as Turner missing the first half. I've got the Buckeyes with the slight edge.
- Edge: Ohio State
Clemson Passing Game vs. Ohio State Pass Defense
This may be what decides the game on Friday. To no one's surprise, Clemson gets the edge here and it's not particularly close. The Tigers have a top-10 passing offense while the Buckeyes rank No. 104 against the pass. Tee Higgins is suiting up for the Bengals and Justyn Ross has missed the season with an injury, but Amari Rodgers and Cornell Powell have played well despite not being the biggest names. It certainly helps when Trevor Lawrence is the one getting the ball to you.
Travis Etienne is the team's third-leading receiver with 44 catches for 524 yards. He gave Ohio State all kinds of problems as a receiver last time the two teams met. Rodgers lines up in the slot, and I'm not entirely sure how Kerry Coombs will try to defend him. With Shaun Wade now playing on the outside, it could be up to guys like Marcus Williamson and Josh Proctor. That's not a matchup that gives me the warm and fuzzies.
- Edge: Clemson
Clemson Rushing Game vs. Ohio State Rush Defense
Ohio State's rush defense has been solid checking in at No. 7 in the country. The Tigers rank No. 64 in rushing offense which is surprisingly low. Perhaps part of that can be attributed to the games where DJ Uiagalelei was under center since he doesn't quite pose the running threat that Trevor Lawrence does. This is a tough one to get a feel for especially since we don't know the status of Baron Browning and a few others.
Junior left tackle Jackson Carman is now the veteran on the offensive line as Dabo Swinney has dealt with some inexperience in the trenches. I think Clemson plays this one smart and tries its hand rushing on the edges rather than running right into Tommy Togiai and Haskell Garrett in the middle. Lawrence's ability to improvise and keep the ball on RPO plays has to be one of the biggest concerns. His rushing from a season ago still haunts me, but I'll give the slight edge to the Buckeyes here.
- Edge: Ohio State
Ohio State vs. Clemson Coaching
It's no surprise that two of the game's best coaching staffs are again facing one another in the semis. Ryan Day is looking for his first playoff win while Dabo Swinney already has six to his name. The Buckeyes have a new defensive coordinator in Kerry Coombs who has taken some lumps in his first season back in Columbus. I have no idea how Clemson has held onto Brent Venables since 2012, but his presence is what really swings this one in the Tigers' favor.
- Edge: Clemson
Ohio State is currently a 7.5-point underdog against Clemson, and I suppose that isn't a big surprise considering what we've seen in the defensive backfield and Justin Fields' struggles against Indiana and Northwestern. The Buckeyes definitely have some areas where they match up quite favorably, but the team will need to play its best game of the season to avoid another semifinal defeat.
Anything is possible with Fields at the helm, but Clemson can absolutely say the same thing with its quarterback. If we were looking strictly at the individual position groups, I'd probably rate them something like this:
| QB | OL | RB | WR | TE | DL | LB | DB | ST | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OHIO STATE | √ | √ | √ | PUSH | √ | ||||
| CLEMSON | √ | √ | PUSH | √ | √ |
The defensive line could probably go either way. Ohio State has plenty of experience while Clemson is ultra-talented despite not having any junior or senior starters. A pair of five-star true freshmen – Bryan Bresee and Myles Murphy – wasted little time rising to the top of the Tiger depth chart. Larry Johnson has benefited from what may be the nation's top tackle duo with Haskell Garrett and Tommy Togiai. The Buckeye line has provided plenty of pressure even though the absurd Chase Young-led sack numbers haven't been there.
A line of 7.5 and over/under of 66.5 points gives you a Vegas projected score of about 37-30 in favor of Clemson. Even if you give Ohio State the edge in a few different areas, the Tiger passing game likely holds the game's greatest advantage unless Coombs can get things turned around in a big way.
Be sure to stay dialed in as we'll have plenty of coverage throughout the week, including our own staff predictions as we get closer to Friday night's kickoff.
