Fiesta Bowl Debacle Capped a Two-Year Offensive Slide Forcing Urban Meyer's Hand to Make Changes

By Chris Lauderback on January 6, 2017 at 10:10 am
Ohio State managed just 88 yards rushing against Clemson in the Fiesta Bowl.
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Hopefully you've made it through the 12 stages of grief following the beatdown Ohio State suffered at the hands of Clemson in the Fiesta Bowl College Football Playoff semifinal. 

It's never fun watching your favorite squad get embarrassed on national television but in hindsight, a blowout was the best case scenario if the Buckeyes had to lose because it forced Urban Meyer to take decisive action.

If Ohio State lost a tight game, say 17-14, yet the offense still produced maybe one lone touchdown via great field position handed to it by the defense, Meyer might have been content in trying to polish a turd. 

Instead, a 31-point shellacking had him bringing in a new quarterback coach, canning the existing one (or opting to let him walk depending on what you choose to believe), and likely bringing in Kevin Wilson as the new offensive coordinator leaving incumbent Ed Warinner twisting in the wind. 

And all of that unfolded in about four days. 

We'll see if the change(s) ultimately turn around a Buckeye offense with a tendency to sputter in big games as part of a two-year decline. 

On one hand, it can't hurt and the status quo of randomly changing the roles and gameday placement of Beck and Warinner failed to get the team back to the top of the college football mountain. 

On the other, elite college football is just as much, if not more so, about the Jimmy's and Joe's as it is the X's and O's and I'm not yet sold on the talent level of numerous Jimmy's dotting the offensive roster. 

In either case, my own curiosity led to checking out the high-level offensive stats churned out by the Buckeyes over the last three years. 

OHIO STATE OFFENSIVE STATS BY SEASON
CATEGORY 2014 RESULT (RANK) 2015 RESULT (RANK) 2016 RESULT (RANK)
TOTAL OFFENSE 511.6 (9) 434.1 (41) 459.2 (32)
PASS OFFENSE 247.1 (52) 188.8 (100) 213.9 (82)
RUSH OFFENSE 264.5 (9) 245.2 (11) 245.2 (12)
RUSH YPC 5.75 (11) 5.62 (9) 5.47 (17)
SACKS ALLOWED 1.87 (71) 1.26 (34) 2.15 (68)

During the national championship season of 2014 the offense rode an electric rushing attack and a competent, complimentary passing attack to over 511 yards per game, good for ninth in the land. 

With Ezekiel Elliott going off down the stretch behind what became a cohesive, dominant offense line, the running game averaged nearly 5.8 yards per carry while pass pro yielded 1.87 sacks per game. 

Last year with Tom Herman off to Houston and Warinner presumably promoted to primary play caller, the offense sputtered and/or became one-dimensional at times putting up only 363 total yards against Hawai'i, just one touchdown and 298 total yards against Northern Illinois and 114 yards passing against Penn State (though 429 total yards) before hitting rock bottom with 132 total yards via 86 rushing and 46 passing in a home loss to Michigan State that drew the ire of Elliott and knocked the Buckeyes out of the playoff. 

The Buckeyes would chew up 369 rushing yards a week later in Ann Arbor but augment that tally with only 113 passing yards. 

Overall, the 2015 offense, hamstrung at times by a lack of clarity at the quarterback position for much of the year, went on to produce the lowest total offense (434 ypg) and pass offense over the last three seasons.

J.T. Barrett saw his completion percentage drop from 63.3% in 2015 to 61.5% in 2016.

The 2016 season arrived with much needed continuity quarterback as J.T. Barrett returned with loads of experience but the rest of the skill guys were relatively green or unproven which wasn't helped by the need to break in three new starters in the trenches. 

New left tackle Jamarco Jones emerged as the most talented blocker of them all and while vets Pat Elflein and Billy Price were largely solid, true freshman Michael Jordan understandably had his ups and downs while sophomore right tackle Isaiah Prince struggled mightily against the schedule's stiffest competition. 

Behind Barrett, redshirt freshman Mike Weber had a solid season with 1,096 rushing yards but expecting him to fill the crater-sized void created by Elliott's departure was simply unrealistic. 

Warinner and his playcalling consultants rightfully didn't yet have the confidence to ride Weber and with every wide receiver including Noah Brown failing to live up to varying degrees of hype, that put a lot of pressure on Curtis Samuel and J.T. Barrett to carry the load though Samuel's usage rate was puzzling at times. 

With symptoms of offensive dysfunction masked at times by feasting on poor opponents coupled with a playmaking defense, things came to a head over the final three games. 

2016 OHIO STATE OFFENSE - LAST THREE GAMES
OPPONENT RUSH RUSH YDS RUSH YPC COMP ATT PASS YDS YPA SACKS TOT OFF
MICHIGAN STATE 45 224 5.0 10 22 86 3.9 3.0 310
MICHIGAN 50  206 4.1 15 32 124 3.9 8.0 330
CLEMSON 23 88 3.8 19 33 127 3.8 3.0 215
AVERAGE 39 172 4.4 15 29 112 3.9 4.7 285

Fresh off back-to-back 62-3 spankings of Nebraska and Maryland the offense went into its typical shell when faced with any hint of adverse weather conditions in East Lansing. 

Facing what was then a 3-7 Sparty team sporting one B1G win, the passing attack put up 86 yards on 10 of 22 passing from Barrett but got bailed out by Weber's first 100+ yard rushing effort in seven games as part of a 17-16 escape in which the offense churned out a then-season-low 310 yards. 

Hoping the wind was solely to blame for the struggles in East Lansing proved fool's gold as the Buckeye offense struggled for much of The Game before finally taking advantage of continuous gifts from the visiting team. 

The running game spit out 206 of the team's 330 total yards and three scores to offset a 47% completion percentage effort from Barrett (15/32, INT) and the receivers which wasn't helped by constant pressure yielding a ridiculous eight sacks with Isaiah Prince performing his finest sieve impersonation. 

Having totaled just 640 yards over those two games including only 210 passing and failing to convert 23 of 33 3rd down conversions the hope was the extended time to prepare for Clemson would help Meyer and company figure out some things. 

Mike Weber fumbled twice in five carries against Clemson.

Instead the dam burst against the Tigers as the Buckeye offense amassed a meager 215 yards after going into full blown panic mode resorting to 19 pass attempts from an obviously anemic passing game against 11 rushing attempts in the 1st half. 

The confluence of inconsistent pass blocking, no effective true wide receivers, a regressing Barrett, no bell-cow in the backfield and predictable playcalling helped Ohio State average 285 total yards over the final three games including just 112 passing yards on 3.9 yards per attempt. 

Though there's reason to be excited about what fresh voices and strategies can provide for the offense in the form of QB coach Ryan Day and reportedly Wilson as the offensive coordinator, those changes alone won't cure what ails the Buckeye offense. 

The Jimmy's and the Joe's need to step up too. 

Barrett needs to improve his footwork and by extension his accuracy. Weber needs to take the next step and evolve into the type of guy the playcaller(s) won't be able to ignore. Prince has to own his struggles and improve or be replaced. Marcus Baugh can be a star if he wants to be great at all facets of his position. Names like Noah Brown, Parris Campbell and Terry McLaurin need to shit or get off the pot. And if none of them can truly step up then Ben Victor, Austin Mack and/or others need to expedite their development, Zach Smith willing. 

The expectation is Meyer's staff moves will foster a mindset of increased accountability for coaches but just as there are no guarantees on how those changes will pay off, the jury remains out on whether or not some of the players can take the next step in their development. 

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