By the Numbers: Examining Some Stats That Could Determine Saturday's Showdown Between Ohio State, Oklahoma

By Tim Shoemaker on September 17, 2016 at 10:00 am
Urban Meyer gives Ohio State a slight coaching edge.
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Back in early August, the Associated Press ranked the top-25 college football programs of all time.

Ohio State came in at No. 1 on that list; Oklahoma was No. 2.

Those two teams will square off Saturday night in Norman.

“This is going to be one of those prize fights,” Buckeyes head coach Urban Meyer said this week.

The Sooners find themselves in a must-win situation even though we’re only in the third week of the season. Oklahoma, a College Football Playoff team in 2015, lost its season-opener against Houston and a loss Saturday night to the Buckeyes would almost essentially eliminate the Sooners in Week 3.

On the other hand, Ohio State has a bit of wiggle room. The Buckeyes certainly want to win this game, but a loss does not derail any CFP hopes. Ohio State could still run the table in the Big Ten and be in prime position at the end of the season even if it were to lose Saturday.

With just a few hours until kickoff, let's take a look at some numbers that will — or will not — impact the game this evening.

Urban Meyer is 18-0 in road games at Ohio State

Which is kind of difficult to comprehend. The Buckeyes only have four losses in four-plus years under Meyer, which in itself is impressive, but none of those have come in true road games. 

Ohio State has two home losses since 2012 — against Virginia Tech in 2014 and against Michigan State last season — and a pair of losses at neutral sites including the Big Ten championship and Orange Bowl at the end of the 2013 season.

Ohio State's last true road loss came Nov. 26, 2011 at Michigan — the second-to-last game of the very brief Luke Fickell era.

Conversely...

Bob Stoops is 97-8 at home as Oklahoma's head coach

Which is also quite ridiculous. The Sooners don't lose much at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium under Stoops. They went undefeated at home in 2015 and their last home loss was the 2014 regular-season finale against Oklahoma State. 

Quarterback Baker Mayfield also hasn't lost a home start in his career thus far as Oklahoma's signal-caller. 

It's one of the best home field advantages against a coach who is yet to lose a true road game in four-plus seasons. It should be quite entertaining.

If the Buckeyes are going to win, they're going to need to force Mayfield and Co. into some turnovers, something they've been quite good at through two games this season as they've forced...

9 turnovers, 7 interceptions through two games

The Ohio State defense has been the biggest surprise thus far, and its ability to force turnovers has been even more impressive. The Buckeyes have not yet surrendered a touchdown on defense through two games.

The secondary has paved the way despite the fact it replaced three starters from last year's group. Marshon Lattimore, Damon Webb and Malik Hooker haven't missed a beat and their ability to defend Mayfield will be critical.

However...

Mayfield has thrown 5 touchdowns, 0 interceptions

And he doesn't make many mistakes as he threw just seven interceptions all of last season. 

The Oklahoma quarterback is at his best when things break down and he can scramble to extend the play. Mayfield plays an unorthodox style that Ohio State must contain and keep in the pocket where he's not nearly as effective throwing the ball.

The Sooners are even better when they can pound teams with a potent ground game, though. And Oklahoma has a dynamic duo of running backs in Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon that the Buckeyes must limit if they have any chance. The Sooners got away from that ground game in their loss to Houston, but so far...

Oklahoma is averaging 179 rushing yards per game

Ohio State has questions on the interior of its defensive line, so there is a lot of pressure on Larry Johnson's unit to rise to the occasion against Perine and Mixon. It'd be surprising if the Buckeyes didn't load the box to contain those two in an attempt to force Mayfield to beat them from the pocket.

Ohio State's run defense through two games — against two sub-par opponents — ranks 14th in the country, allowing just 65 yards per game.

Meyer's No. 1 concern offensively is the Buckeyes' ability to run the football against Oklahoma's stout defensive front. Through two games so far, however, running the ball hasn't been an issue for Ohio State as it is averaging...

313.5 rushing yards per game

That ranks ninth in the country. But if the Buckeyes get to that number against the Sooners, it'd certainly be surprising. Ohio State knows it must be balanced offensively to win this game, but that can't happen if an inexperienced offensive line can't open up the ground game for Mike Weber, Curtis Samuel and Barrett.

Oklahoma is allowing just 83.5 yards per game on the ground through two games — 22nd nationally — so it's certainly going to be a challenge for the Buckeyes.

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