After looking last week at the rushing production that must be replaced in 2016 with the departure of Ezekiel Elliott and others, today the focus shifts to Ohio State's receiving metrics gone from last season as Cardale Jones, Michael Thomas, Braxton Miller, Jalin Marshall, Nick Vannett and Elliott all move on to the NFL.
Similar to the seismic production lost in the rushing game – the Buckeyes lost 73% of their rushing yards and 67% of the accompanying rushing touchdowns from 2015 – the the passing attack production lost from players no longer in the program includes the departure of 81% of the receptions, 80% of the receiving yards and 89% of the touchdown catches.
For perspective on just how significant a task replacing that production might be, I looked at each season since Urban Meyer landed in Columbus in search of context.
| heading into year: | rec lost | % of rec lost | rec yds lost | % of rec yds lost | rec td lost | % of rec td lost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 165 | 81% | 1,970 | 80% | 17 | 89% |
| 2015 | 66 | 25% | 1,295 | 35% | 18 | 43% |
| 2014 | 134 | 56% | 1,636 | 57% | 23 | 61% |
| 2013 | 25 | 16% | 346 | 16% | 4 | 24% |
| 2012 | 32 | 26% | 348 | 21% | 2 | 11% |
2012
Arriving on the scene of a six-win, seven-loss dumpster fire, Meyer inherited a passing attack that threw for just 1,651 yards in 2011 (127 yards/game (!)) with 1,159 of that coming from the arm of Miller and another 492 from a departing 26-year-old, 5th-year senior by the name of Joe Bauserman.
As for the receiving corps, it would be without 2011's fourth-most prolific pass catcher by the numbers though the loss of DeVier Posey loomed much larger than his modest 12 catches and 162 yards which came in just four games due to the fallout from Tatgate. Besides Posey, however the squad was losing just eight catches from Boom Herron (7 games), five from spring game icon T.Y. Williams and a combined seven from Reid Fragel and Jamaal Berry.
With the losses in the receiving game far from significant outside of Posey, Ohio State returned its top three targets in Devin Smith (14 rec, 294 yds, 4 TD), Philly Brown (14 rec, 205 yds, 1 TD) and Jake Stoneburner (14 rec, 193 yds, 7 TD) along with guys like Jordan Hall, Carlos Hyde, Verlon Reed, Chris Fields, Evan Spencer and Jeff Heuerman.
With Miller finally under the tutelage of a competent offensive staff yet still raw as a passer, he would throw for 2,039 yards during a perfect 12-0 season with 15 touchdowns against six picks. The retooled offense totaled 36 more receptions than in 2011 despite playing one less game.
After leading the 2011 offense with 14 receptions, Philly posted 60 catches in 2012 for 669 yards with big-play threat Smith grabbing 30 balls for 618 yards (20.6 ypc) and six scores.
Lesser contributions would be made by Stoneburner (16 rec, 269 yds), Spencer (12 rec), tight ends Vannett (9) and Heuerman (8), Hyde (8) and a kid named Michael Thomas (3), among others.
2013
On the heels of an improbable undefeated season, Year 2 of the Meyer Era set up nicely for many position groups including from a passing attack perspective as the Buckeyes lost just 16% of the previous year's reception and yardage along with 24% of the aerial scores.
The biggest loss was Stoneburner who was the team's third-leading receiver in 2012 but otherwise, Ohio State's top six pass catchers returned.
Now in his third season under center, Miller showed tremendous growth throwing for 2,094 yards connecting on 63.5% of his attempts to the tune of 24 touchdowns against seven picks. Backup Kenny Guiton was even more accurate completing almost 69% of this throws for 749 yards with 14 touchdowns and only two interceptions.
Brown would again lead the receiving corps with 63 grabs for 771 yards and 10 scores while Smith continued his emergence with 44 receptions for 660 yards and eight touchdowns.
Heuerman put up a phenomenal season for a Buckeye tight end with 26 catches for 466 yards while Spencer (216) and Dontre Wilson (210) topped the 200-yard mark.
Illustrating just how far Ohio State's passing game had progressed since Meyer and Tom Herman took over the offense, Miller and Guiton combined to throw for 2,843 yards and 38 touchdowns, or 665 more yards and 21 more touchdowns than in 2012.
2014
Entering the 2014 season the offensive brain trust looked to replace over 40% of the previous year's catches and yards along with 55% of the touchdowns with much of that production belonging to Philly (771 yards, 10 TD) with Chris Fields, Hyde and Hall combining for another 393 yards and nine touchdowns.
Talented though largely unproven, guys like Michael Thomas, Jalin Marshall, Zeke, Corey Smith and Curtis Samuel, among others, jockeyed for opportunities to show what they could do while experienced players in Smith, Spencer and Heuerman looked to take their 2013 production to the next level.
Despite all that talent, anxiousness that it might all go for naught surfaced with the news that Miller tore his labrum just 11 days before the season opener forcing redshirt freshman J.T. Barrett – he of exactly zero collegiate snaps – into the starting quarterback gig. Any concerns would be put to bed starting with week three as Barrett threw for 31 touchdowns against six interceptions in the 10 games following Ohio State's crushing loss to Virginia Tech in week two when Barrett tossed three interceptions.
When Barrett's ankle shattered under the weight of a Michigan defensive lineman it appeared to most that Ohio State's hopes of a national title were all but finished.
Enter former-3rd-stringer Cardale Jones who averaged 247 passing yards in three straight wins over Wisconsin, Alabama and Oregon as the Buckeyes captured the College Football Playoff championship.
Fresh off a rare second-year redshirt, Thomas exploded onto the scene with a team-high 54 grabs for 799 yards and nine touchdowns while Smith took his big-play reputation to the next level with a team-best 931 yards on 33 receptions for a ridiculous 28.2 yards per catch and 12 aerial scores.
Marshall, still just a redshirt freshman, finished second on the team with 38 grabs featuring some clutch work over the middle during Ohio State's postseason blitz while Elliott, complimenting his insane production in the running game, hauled in 28 balls for 220 yards.
Smith also reached the 20-catch plateau with Heuerman and Vannett adding 17 grabs apiece, Spencer chipping in 15 while specializing in downfield blocking and Samuel going for 11.
The Barrett/Jones combo along with the depth in the pass catching ranks enabled the Buckeyes to rack up 3,694 receiving yards (247.1 yards/game) with 41 touchdowns, bettering the previous year's marks by 851 yards and three scores. In fact, the passing attack accounted for 48% of the squad's total yards good for the highest percentage of the Meyer era.
2015
Returning seven of its top eight receiving targets, Ohio State lost only 25% of the 2014 receptions and 35% of the yards though 43% of the touchdowns would also need replaced.
The obvious loss was Smith who turned himself into the 37th selection of the NFL Draft after leading the team with those 931 yards and 12 touchdowns. Beyond Smith, Heuerman and Spencer would leave the team without its best blocker and strong leadership but the duo tallied a replaceable 32 grabs for 356 yards and five touchdowns.
The biggest issue with the passing game turned out to be the difficulty Jones and Barrett had trying to duplicate their 2014 successes with both guys now healthy and in the uncharted territory of fighting for the top spot.
With Jones starting the first seven games before giving way to Barrett in week eight against Rutgers (excepting week nine as Barrett served a one-game suspension) the duo combined to tally 2,452 yards with 19 touchdowns and nine picks, numbers which paled in comparison to their 2014 production.
Thomas again led the team in receptions (56) and this time around also led the team with 781 yards and nine touchdowns. Marshall's numbers were nearly identical to his 2014 output as he amassed 36 receptions for 477 yards and five scores while Zeke ranked third with 27 catches out of the backfield.
Undertaking a position switch following his shoulder surgery, Miller totaled a fairly modest 26 catches for 341 yards and the staff struggled at times to successfully integrate the senior's skills into the flow of the offense.
Both Wilson (9 games) and Corey Smith (4 games) were bit by the injury bug and Samuel managed to haul in 22 passes for 289 yards and could've had a far greater impact if not for the glut of guys vying for touches. Finally, Vannett rounded out his Buckeye career with 19 receptions for 162 yards.
2016
Nearing the end of spring drills Meyer and staff have their hands full as they work to replace the staggering 165 receptions, 1,970 yards and 17 touchdowns erased with the departure of five of last season's top six targets.
The efforts to do so have been hampered by a spring without Samuel as he recovers from foot surgery and Noah Brown who is recovering from a broken leg suffered last August. Corey Smith is recovering from his own broken leg suffered against Indiana last fall. Additionally the staff is careful in how they're managing reps for Johnnie Dixon and Wilson due to their own injury history.
Samuel has proven what he can do when given opportunity and should be a vital part of the passing game from the H-back slot provided he doesn't have to shift to tailback in the off chance Bri'onte Dunn and/or Mike Weber can't handle those duties.
Brown hasn't proven much in game situations but he was the buzz of fall camp last year before the compound fracture suffered on a non-contact play. All signs point to a healthy Brown being a legit starter for the Buckeyes.
Given his experience and effectiveness as a blocker, a healthy Smith could also potentially start alongside Samuel and Brown though Dixon and freshman Austin Mack could also be threats to see impactful playing time.
Where Torrance Gibson fits into the equation is still a bit of a mystery as it is with Dixon, Parris Campbell, Terry McLaurin and others.
Having depth is one thing but having guys be able to practice and subsequently define roles is far more important. Unfortunately for Ohio State, the ability to complete the latter will continue into fall camp and assuredly bleed into the season.
The good news is that the Buckeyes don't appear to be short on playmaking talent in the passing game and having a steady leader and performer in Barrett at the controls should aid in the development of his receivers.
