Ohio State saved its season on Sunday, but the rescue mission was only a temporary fix.
Following an embarrassing loss at Iowa, the Buckeyes likely would have needed a massive run in the Big Ten Tournament for a prayer at an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament if not for their upset of then-No. 8, now No. 15 Purdue. But by beating the Boilermakers, most bracket experts are placing Ohio State on the right side of the tourney bubble with a smidgeon of room to spare.
Two games remain on Ohio State's regular-season schedule, one on Wednesday at Penn State (7:30 p.m. on Peacock) and Senior Day at home against Indiana on Saturday (5:30 p.m. on FOX). The Big Ten Tournament opens the following week. The objective: Hold serve.
The Buckeyes are at the doorstep of breaking their four-year NCAA Tournament drought and delivering the man soon to be the school's all-time leading scorer, Bruce Thornton, to his lone dance. They must cling to that chance tight. Let's break it down.
NCAA Tournament Outlook
When you're a bubble team, picking up by far your biggest win of the season to kick off March is going to boost your chances of making the NCAA Tournament astronomically.
| Overall Record | 18-11 |
| Home | 12-3 |
| Road | 4-6 |
| NET Ranking | 34th |
| Q1 Record | 2-10 |
| Q2 Record | 6-1 |
Ohio State's Quad 1 win over Purdue is its second of the season after its December win at Northwestern got upgraded to a Quad 1 this week. As a weekly reminder, a NET top-75 team on the road, a top-50 team at a neutral site and a top-30 team at home is considered Quad 1.
The Buckeyes received a jump in their own NET rankings as a result, all the way up to 34th nationally. That ranking is yielding massive dividends in their battles with other bubble teams. Ohio State is the third-to-last team in, per ESPN's Joe Lunardi, joining Santa Clara, Indiana and New Mexico as the last four squads to make the tourney. The highest school of that trio in the NET rankings is Indiana at No. 40.
Ohio State fares even better in the Bracket Matrix, which aggregates 104 expert predictions of the field. The Buckeyes are not just among the 68 teams dancing, but the last team to receive a bye through the First Four into the first round of the NCAA Tournament. TCU joins the aforementioned Lunardi trio below OSU but in the tournament as an at-large. The Horned Frogs are 45th in the NET rankings.
CBS Sports is particularly high on Ohio State, placing it as a No. 9 seed. The line to watch for at-large bids is the 11-seed line. Penn State is a Quad 2 contest on the road, as is Indiana at home, and the Hoosiers are hovering right on the bubble with the Buckeyes. Winning both games – then following it up with a win in the Big Ten Tournament – seems like enough to ensure OSU a spot in the tournament. Anything less leaves it up to chance.
| Team | Conference Record | Overall Record |
|---|---|---|
| Michigan | 17-1 | 27-2 |
| Michigan State | 14-4 | 24-5 |
| Nebraska | 14-5 | 25-5 |
| Illinois | 14-5 | 22-7 |
| Purdue | 12-6 | 22-7 |
| Wisconsin | 12-6 | 20-9 |
| UCLA | 12-7 | 20-10 |
| Iowa | 10-8 | 20-9 |
| Ohio State | 10-8 | 18-11 |
| Indiana | 8-10 | 17-12 |
| USC | 7-11 | 18-11 |
| Minnesota | 7-11 | 14-15 |
| Washington | 6-12 | 14-15 |
| Northwestern | 5-13 | 13-16 |
| Rutgers | 5-13 | 12-17 |
| Maryland | 4-14 | 11-18 |
| Oregon | 4-15 | 11-19 |
| Penn State | 3-15 | 12-17 |
Big Ten Outlook
With two games remaining in its regular season, Ohio State is playing for a double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament.
The top eight teams in the final regular season standings claim the eight double-byes in the conference tourney. UCLA upset No. 9 Nebraska in a game that tipped at 11 p.m. eastern time on Tuesday night. It separated the Bruins by 1.5 games from Iowa and Ohio State, who are tied for eighth.
The Hawkeyes hold a head-to-head win over the Buckeyes, so a direct tiebreaker will go Iowa's way. But it plays No. 3 Michigan on Wednesday and at Nebraska to close the season. If Ohio State wins out, there's a great chance Iowa loses once along the way.
Should Iowa and Ohio State each win their remaining two games, either Purdue or Wisconsin would have to lose each of their final two to create a multi-team tiebreaker scenario. The Buckeyes split their season series with the Badgers and beat the Boilermakers. Wisconsin and Purdue play in their respective regular season finales, to provide some intrigue there.
Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska and Illinois all hold at least a 1.5-game lead on the field for the top four seeds, which receive triple-byes in the Big Ten Tournament.
